“The transition of July in August does not promise much upheaval for the Ukrainian foreign exchange market. The dollar exchange rate is expected to remain stable, thanks to the NBU policy and maintaining the “managed flexibility” regime. Instead, the euro again demonstrates increased sensitivity to global changes and continues to fluctuate more actively than US currency. The head of the Department told about expectations in the foreign exchange market of Ukraine this week”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
The transition of July in August does not promise much upheaval for the Ukrainian foreign exchange market. The dollar exchange rate is expected to remain stable, thanks to the NBU policy and maintaining the “managed flexibility” regime. Instead, the euro again demonstrates increased sensitivity to global changes and continues to fluctuate more actively than US currency.
Taras Lesovy, Head of the Treasury Department of one of the Ukrainian banks in a comment, told about expectations in Ukraine’s foreign exchange market this week in a comment this week this week Invest News.
In his opinion, The current fluctuations in the dollar, as well as the difference between interbank and cash segments, remain insignificant. An additional stabilization factor is a gradual decrease in inflation, which creates a “soothing” background for course dynamics.
On August 1, the official dollar exchange rate, according to our forecasts, will be in the range 41,8-42,1 UAH. Compared to the beginning of the year (42.02 UAH/dollar), which means growth of no more than by 0.4% – That is, the market actually remains in a state of controlled equilibrium.
As for the euro, the situation is traditionally more complicated here. The EU currency continues to demonstrate more volatility than the dollar. Its course in Ukraine is determined by two factors – global changes in the dollar/euro and the internal dynamics of the hryvnia/dollar. Under the current terms of the ratio 1 euro to $ 1.15–1.17 looks realistic. Accordingly, in Ukraine the euro will fluctuate within 48.5-49.7 UAH.
That is, we have a classic picture: the dollar is stable thanks to the NBU’s actions, and the euro remains a “mirror” of global risks.
The main expression of the foreign exchange market from July 28 to August 3:
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Currency changes corridors: 41.6-42 UAH / $ and 48,5-49,5 UAH / € (on the interbank) and 41.6-42.2 UAH / $ and 48-49,5 UAH / € (in the cash market).
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Daily course changes: to 0.05-0.15 UAH (interbank), to 0.1-0.2 UAH (Kombank), to 0.3 UAH (exchange offices).
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The difference between buying and selling courses: up to 0.15 UAH for $ 1, up to 0.2 UAH per € 1 (interbank), up to 0.5-0.6 UAH per $ 1, up to 0.8-1 UAH per € 1 (Kombank), up to 0.6-1 UAH per $ 1, up to 1-1.3 UAH per € 1 (exchange offices).
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Difference of buying on cash market: 0.2-0.3 UAH for $ 1, 0.3-0.5 for € 1 (Kombank), 0.3-0.5 UAH for $ 1, 0.5-0.7 for € 1 (exchange offices).
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Difference of sales on cash market: 0.1-0.2 UAH for $ 1, 0.2-0.3 UAH for € 1 (Kombank), 0.3-0.5 UAH for $ 1, up to 0.5 UAH for € 1 (exchange offices).
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Depending on the currency, the average difference between interbank and cash market rates – 0,1-0,15 UAH.
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Average weekly course deviations – to 1-1.5% from the initial course of the week.
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Recall that National Bank of Ukraine set On July 23, the following official courses: $ 1 – UAH 41.76 (5 cents less than yesterday), and 1 euro – 48.86 UAH (7 cents more than the day before).
