“Ukraine has received a new prime minister-an excellent economy Yulia Sviridenko. She was inherited surprisingly durable, but a bleeding economy and a whole knot of unresolved problems. What are the expectations of the new Cabinet and where to start, – UNIAN found out.”, – WRITE: www.unian.ua
On July 17, the Verkhovna Rada appointed Yulia Sviridenko to the new Prime Minister of Ukraine and approved the updated composition of its Cabinet of Ministers. Thus, she has shifted Denis Shmigal, who has occupied the premiere chair since 2020.
- New breathing reforms
- Schmigal’s era: between fire and ashes
- The future on a thin ice
Sviridenko is far from new to the government. For several years, she has appeared in the list of contenders for the main chair at the Government’s House. Moreover, she had every chance of changing Denis Shmigal last year, but did not happen. According to one version, then Yulia Anatoliivna’s candidacy was “cut” by the United States.
The personal composition of the new Cabinet has undergone some changes, but a large part of the expremier team was still able to preserve positions.
Yes, Denis Schmigal will become a Minister of Defense and will go down in history as the first head of the government, who, upon completion of his leadership, will work to work as a common minister. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his hope that “his experience will be useful in a new position.” In the chair of the head of the defense department, the former Prime Minister will replace the Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov, with a position for which, according to rumors, should be determined on July 18.
The Ministry of Strategic Industry will be released into the defensive department, which will leave without the chair of its current head Herman Smetanin. The general public will be remembered, above all, by a scandal with the supply of defective mines. There was no place in the new government configuration.
Changes are also waiting for the government’s economic block. Not only personnel but also structural. The Ministry of Economy is enlarged, turning into a kind of ministry. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and the Ministry of Ecology are composed of it. Former Deputy Yulia Sviridenko has the head of this Super Ministry, and before that – the head of SE “Transparent sale” Alexei Sobolev.
This is no longer the first reorganization of agencies of the economic bloc. In 2019, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy was annexed to the Ministry of Economy, and, exactly a year, it was restored to its work. We are now seeing the repetition of history.
The head of the liquidated Ministry of Ecology, Svitlana Grinchuk, was replaced by her former chief – Herman Galushchenko (she was his deputy to the ministerial office). And he, in turn, went to the post of Minister of Justice. His predecessor Olga Stefanyshyn became a special authorized President for the development of cooperation with the United States. Criminal proceedings and scandals, although “knocked out” her from the ministerial chair, but did not interfere with his career.
The government leader of the European integration direction will now be the former Trade Representative of Ukraine to the EU Taras Kachka, who has extensive experience in this kitchen.
As for the former agrarian minister, the person involved in the NABU investigation into possible illegal enrichment, Vitaliy Koval – was rumored that he was offered to return to his former work at the State Property Fund. During his absence, this department did not receive a full leader. However, according to the latest data, the blacksmith refused this work.
The change of the Kiremanich was also beaten by the Ministry of Social Policy. Oksana Zholnovich was replaced by the expirer of the Minister of Finance Denis Ulutin, who managed to become known as his statement about the inevitable discovery of banking secrecy in Ukraine. And the department he headed is transformed into the Ministry of Social Policy, Family and Unity of Ukraine.
From the post of Minister of Culture and Strategic Communications, Mykola Tochytskyi is projected, namely the department will become simply the Ministry of Culture. The power corridors have long been rumored that the Minister himself would have wanted to return to diplomatic work, and scandalous stories with the departures of military men, one end, did not add political points to him at the sheets of the Ministry of Culture. He is unofficially wedged to the post of Ambassador of Ukraine to France.
However, despite his release, Totchitsky continues to fulfill the responsibilities of the minister, because with the appointment of his successor has not yet developed, because, according to rumors, all applicants have refused.
It is still unknown what the fate of the strategic communications and information policy, which was previously part of the Ministry of Culture was.
Most ministers have kept portfolios / photos of Yulia SviridenkoThe rest of the ministers retained the portfolios. He was close to the release of Education Minister Oksen Lisovy. The dissertation scandal (in the dissertation of the minister was revealed plagiarism, and after the examination he abandoned the degree), conflicts with the deputies of the monology, as well as the extremely unpopular closure of low -complex schools and the increase in the cost of study in universities, seemingly had to put a cross on his ministerial. But it seems not this time.
What caused these changes and why the premiere and some ministers were replaced this year? But what to expect from the new government under the leadership of Sviridenko – will radical economic reforms be implemented that will give impetus to economic recovery, or the Cabinet will continue to continue the policy of the previous head? UNIAN spoke with economic experts and political scientists in search of answers to these questions.
New breathing reformsPolitical scientist Igor Reityrovich in a comment to UNIAN states that the permutations in the head office of the Government House testify not just about personnel rotation, but about the completion of a protracted and low -public struggle between groups of influence in the presidential environment. Changes in the government show that one of the groups has taken the mountain that opens a new stage in domestic policy.
“One group has won. And because they have access to the President, they can advance their candidacy. And they have taken advantage of it.
The political scientist adds that, having replaced the longstanding Prime Minister, Bankova is expected to signal to European partners about the readiness to “revive reforms”. At the same time, it should be expected that the economic course of the state will not change significantly, because the permutations were point: much of the ministers either retained the chairs, or they were replaced by previous deputies.
“Formally, this is a new Cabinet, although 70% of ministers will remain,” he adds.
Shmigal Despite his release from the premiere, remained in the Cabinet of Ministers in a new role / photo UNIAN, Dmitry KlyuchkoThe same applies to Shmigal, who, despite his release from the post of prime minister, remained in the Cabinet of Minister of Defense. According to Reitrovich, this is explained by a short bench of the reserve, as well as the desire not to give the government finally to only one group of influence.
“It was necessary to put a person who would not spend a lot of time to get into the state of affairs and would be loyal to the authorities as much as possible. Schmigal is suitable for it,” he concludes.
Political scientist Petro Oleshchuk also agrees with the conclusions of Reitrovich, who connects the replacement of the government with a more favorable external and internal political situation. The expert reminds that talking about the possible appointment of Yulia Sviridenko has been conducted for the post of prime minister for several years, but only now they have brought a real result.
“Relations with the Trump administration, managed to enlist the support of European and American partners, and now there is an optimal moment when it is possible to carry out appropriate rotations. I think that a complex of internal and foreign policy factors worked,” he said.
Oleshchuk also calls the next round of internal political struggle between groups of influence in power.
“But I do not think that the struggle is over. Just no one, apparently, under the current conditions, does not want to pedal this struggle. The foreign policy situation does not contribute to the clarification of relationships,” he said.
Sviridenko herself, having received his post, noted that her main priority for the next six months will be “quality provision of the army, increasing its own production of weapons and increasing the manufacturability of the army.”
“Our government is going on self -sufficiency: military, economic and social,” she wrote on the social network Facebook.
She also mentioned deregulation, stopping of unauthorized pressure on business (which became one of the problematic issues of the previous Cabinet), accelerating large privatization and introducing further mechanisms for supporting the population.
“We have already started working on optimizing the state apparatus and we take a full audit of expenditures for their reduction,” the newly elected Prime Minister added.
What the results will be – we will see over time. However, according to UNIAN interviewed experts, Sviridenko’s course in a new position is unlikely to indicate dramatic changes. Most analysts agree that its policy will largely continue the predecessor line, maintaining the continuity of decisions and management approaches.
Ukraine has fulfilled over 80% of the Association Agreement with the EU / UNIAN photoSchmigal’s era: between fire and ashes“These five years have been the most difficult in our modern history. We have stood, passed through the storms of the hardest crisis, adapt and laid the foundation for future growth,” – in such words, Schmigal’s Expremier began a report on the results of his work at the head of the Cabinet.
Indeed, his cadence came at the time of the coronavirus pandemic and a full -scale war. Despite a number of scandals and outspoken failures, the government managed to keep the Ukrainian economy afloat in difficult circumstances, and this has become its most important and most important achievement.
Among the victories of his office, Shmigal lists: the creation of a modern defense industry, the fulfillment of the state’s social obligations to citizens, launching new programs for supporting the population, preserving macro -financial stability.
“We are forcing Russia to pay: the frozen assets of the aggressor are already working on Ukraine, and the mechanism of their complete confiscation is a task for the near future,” the Examrier adds.
In addition, it reminds that the Ukrainian energy infrastructure, despite the challenges, has withstood the unprecedented amount of missile-arable hostile blows, Ukraine has fulfilled more than 80% of the Association Agreement with the EU and has advanced significantly on its path to membership, and also became a digital state.
However, in this barrel of honey it was not without a few bitter spoons of tar. Among which, corruption scandals for the army, and artificially created fuel crisis, and a non -calling tariff policy (when the cost of utilities for the population, on the one hand, promised to “freeze” until the end of the war, but as it turned out to be banned from raising tariffs, the largest oligarchic facilities were not hit) Khmelnitsky NPP units, and a populist approach to the introduction of social programs (like the National and Winter Thousand “), and failures in customs reform and the appointment of an independent management of the Bureau of Economic Security …
And what do experts think about this, and how do they summarize the previous five years?
At the request of UNIAN, the chief consultant of the Center for Foreign Policy Studies of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Ivan Ok told what, in his opinion, the top 3 achievements and the top 3 failures of the previous government were.
First of all, in Plus, he enrolled that, thanks to the help of international partners, the Cabinet, led by Shmigal, managed to keep the economy from negative phenomena: “they expected that there would be a crisis in the economy, but it was not close,” – states the expert.
Another positive achievement, he calls European integration progress.
“If we recall our initial point on the possible accession to the EU in early February 2022, and compare with where we are now, then, as for me, progress is significant. Especially in the conditions we are, I think it is a great success of this team,” the expert adds.
And closes the top 3 “victories” according to Ivan Usa, that the Schmigal government has long delayed raising taxes for the population and business, despite the fact that it was the requirement of our Western partners.
“Taxes in Ukraine, though increased, but have increased not so long ago. The government was able to negotiate with partners. Because without agreement it would be difficult to succeed in this regard,” he said.
Among the disadvantages, the expert calls the scandals whose authored by government representatives, as well as privatization, which during a full -scale invasion was not profitable for the state.
“I understand that the government needs money, but it should be understood that everything that was privatized during the war would bring more money if it is to hold and sell it. Therefore, I would refrain from privatization during a period when prices are lower than they could be,” the expert said.
The government of Ivan also attributes the lack of efficiency of mobilization processes and the operation of the CCC to the government.
In turn, the coordinator of expert groups of economic expert platform Oleg D Etman generally evaluates the work of Denis Shmigal’s government on the “four”, but draws attention to harmful initiatives that were imposed on the Cabinet of Ministers from the outside.
“Given the harsh conditions, the government worked quite well and pulled the economy. Most government decisions were smart, with the exception of some populist decisions that were imposed on the outside of the” winter thousands ” – pure populism, such as the National Program, a very unknown and discriminatory and discriminatory and discriminatory.
Senior CASE Ukraine Vladimir Dubrovsky, according to which the economic effect of this program was negligible, is also maintained in relation to odious cashback.
“But it has done great harm. First, it is money during a war for non -defense needs and not related to the support of those who really need it. In addition, cashback was introduced only for those who are on the general tax system,” the expert states.
Sviridenko’s first initiatives are already calling / UNIAN photosThe future on a thin iceHowever, Denis Shmigal’s premiere has come to an end, and a new page opens before Ukraine. Yulia Sviridenko only recently occupied a new post of government head, but her first initiatives are already in disputes. In particular, it is a proposal to combine economic, agrarian and environmental agencies into a single so -called “resource ministry” – an idea that critics call back back to the already tested and unsuccessful management decisions.
“The consolidation of ministries is not the best solution now, although in our reform, which we prepared in 2022, there was a significant reduction in the number of ministries, but this was preceded by a change in the logic of the Cabinet. The government was to do the creation of politicians, and everything concerning regulatory acts, regulation of state -owned enterprises, would be a state -owned. It is especially meaningful because it does not allow the minister to control important processes.
The coordinator of the expert groups of the economic expert platform Oleg Hetman also criticizes this idea.
“Every division or association of ministries is only an additional waste of time, the loss of efficiency of these ministries. But our top officials want innovations, so let them have fun,” – the specialist is ironic.
Commenting on his expectations from the new government, Hetman expresses skepticism on the prospects of radical reforms or breakthrough decisions: “The current policy will continue.”
“The only thing we expect from the new government is that we have not been able to make the previous – the reforms of the Bab and Customs. The previous composition of the government has blocked these two reforms (the government refused to appoint a Baby head elected by the competition commission, and the competition for the position of customs officer was not even started,”
At the same time, according to Andrei Dligach, Ukraine urgently needs much more reforms. First of all, tax, institutional and judicial, although he does not believe in the latter. According to his research, the Ukrainian business, which holds the economic front, provides GDP growth and works in difficult conditions, interfere with the development of high taxes and pressure from law enforcement and controlling bodies, which, according to a specialist, according to a quarter of the surveyed entrepreneurs, “has intensified in recent months.”
“All this, of course, makes any actions that by this time the Ministry of Economy has been.
Tax reform, according to the expert, should apply to VAT administration and reduce the tax burden on the payroll.
“This will allow you to shade the economy, and together with the reservation of critical staff – to deduct salaries,” he notes.
And finally, according to the expert, another important reform should become institutional – recognition of the independence and subject of the Cabinet of Ministers. It is a need to restore the balance between the branches of the executive power, in particular – to ensure the independence of the government from the influence of the President’s office and to “return the government to the creation of state policies.” There is no need to talk about effective management and strategic planning.
… ahead of the new government is a difficult and multi -vector task. Expectations from Yulia Sviridenko as a new head of the Cabinet of Ministers are ambitious, but she will have to work in difficult conditions. Whether the war will continue, depleting the economy and forcing each penny to count, whether the long -awaited stage of post -war reconstruction will begin – both scenarios require decisive and flexible solutions. In both cases, you will have to work in conditions of limited resources, reduction of international assistance and ultra -high expectations. In the coming months, the government’s ability to effectively manage the country in crisis, its political subjectivity, vision and real readiness for change.