Money without a quest: how SEPA can change the life of Ukrainian business and whether it will affect the euro exchange rate

Exclusive column by financial expert Olena Sosedka

In polite society, it’s not customary to talk about three things: politics, religion, and money. But if you’re a woman building a fintech company, then money is precisely what you have to talk about – especially when it comes to digital borders.

This time, I want to raise the topic of SEPA. And to talk about it not as a technology, not as another reform – but as an open door to a world where money transfers don’t resemble a bureaucratic quest. And while Ukraine is still just knocking on this door, it’s worth understanding: what kind of “financial fruit” is this, and why do Ukrainians need it.

First, let me explain: SEPA is a kind of financial “Schengen.” It’s a zone where euros can be transferred from one account to another quickly, securely, and almost free of charge. Without intermediaries and without 30 euro commissions. Imagine, in any EU country (and a number of neighboring states), this mechanism is already working. Moreover, SEPA users don’t wait weeks for currency to arrive in their account. 

For example, you live in Paris, your sister is in Riga, and your designer is in Bratislava. You pay them in euros, as if everyone is in the same bank. And that’s it. No magic – just a normal system where banks don’t slow things down, but provide services.

Read also: Business supports Ukraine’s accession to SEPA, but calls for refinement of the draft law – EBA

And now – about Ukraine. For now, we are outside this zone. Another example: to transfer euros from Ukraine to Germany, you need a separate payment order, a lot of documents, mandatory financial monitoring, and, possibly, an explanation of where you got these funds. Sometimes it’s easier – simply not to transfer anything at all. And often – just to prefer USDT and send money in a couple of clicks. Quickly, without unnecessary questions and without bank involvement.

Ukraine’s accession to SEPA is like moving into a new digital reality, where Ukrainian banks and fintech companies will be able to operate on the same terms as in Europe. Yes, it won’t mean “euros in your wallet tomorrow.” However, it’s an opportunity to transfer money like in Europe, at European prices and at a European pace.

Who needs SEPA for Ukraine:

• Businesses – especially exporters, IT companies, startups, charitable organizations; 

• Ukrainians abroad who send money home;

• Ukrainians in Ukraine – who pay for education, rent, or services in the EU; 

• The financial system – to generally talk about normal competition and transparency.

However, Ukraine’s accession to SEPA is only the first step. A lot of work still awaits us: we need to change rules, interfaces, get rid of bureaucracy, and most importantly, build trust in the financial system.

I can compare SEPA to Google Maps, but for money: it won’t drive you, but it will show you the right route. The rest depends on us: the car’s condition, the amount of fuel in the tank, and the driver’s skill.

In addition, SEPA may indirectly affect the euro exchange rate in Ukraine in the future. After all, it will signal that Ukraine is ready for the normalization of financial flows. And the trend of the gray market and transfers “through five hands” is ending. 

As for the euro exchange rate in Ukraine, it is currently determined by other factors:

• volumes of foreign exchange earnings (decreasing in summer);

• need for imports (especially fuel and equipment);

• NBU reserves and currency interventions;

• volumes of military and macro-financial assistance;

• sentiment of the population and businesses (conversion to USDT, cash withdrawals).

So, my euro exchange rate forecast for autumn 2025 – we expect it to fluctuate within 49–52 UAH. Provided stable support from the EU and the USA, the hryvnia will likely remain at around 50 UAH per euro. However, in case of increased military risks or rising import costs – a temporary increase to 53–54 UAH is still possible. 

At the same time, the option of the hryvnia strengthening below 49 per euro – seems unlikely even in a positive scenario. After all, the euro is strengthening in the global market, and the hryvnia is weakening. 

Olena Sosedka