Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Tops $ 110k As Jobs Report Looms

By James Van Straten (All Times et Unless Indicated OtherWise)

Bitcoin

Hit $ 110,000 for The FIRST TIME SINCE JUNE 11 AND IS NOW WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF ITS $ 112,000 All-Time High, WHICH WAS RECORDED ON MAY 22.

Bitcoin Dominance Has Slipped from It June 22 High of Just Over 66% and now Stands a bit above 65%. This Figure Reflects Bitcoin’s Market Capitalization Relating to the Entire Crypto Market. Currently, Bitcoin Boasts a Market Cap of $ 2.2 Trillion.

Today’s Major Economic Event Is The Release of the US Jobs Report. Nonfarm Payrolls Are Expectioned to have Increated by 110,000 Last Month, The Smalest Gain in Four Months and A Slowdown from May’s Increase of 139,000. The UNEMPLYMENT RATE IS PRIESETED TO RISE TO 4.3%, UP from 4.2%. If this figure materializes, it would be the Highest Unemployment Rate Since October 2021. Over The Past 12 MONTHS, The UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HELD WITHIN A TIGHT Range Between 4%.

The Report Comes A Day Early Because of the July 4 Holiday Weekend, WHICH is Likely to see Reduced Trading Volumes. The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Will Close at 1 PM Today and Bond Markets at 2 PM Markets Will Remain Closed on Friday, July 4.

Ahead of the release, markets were pricing in a 75% chance that the Federal Reserve would Kest Rates Steady at 4.25% -4.50% Dringing ITS Meeting Schelyed for July 30.

“On -chain Flows Remain Stable, Suggesting that Majoor Players Are Awaiting Further Signals from This Week’s Non-Farm Payrolls and Initial Jobless Claims Data,“ HTX Research Wrote. “Structurally, The Market is Navigating Between Two Potential Scenarios.”

If Labor Data Weakens, A ConfirMed September Rate Cut Could Could Ignite A Renewed Rally in BTC, HTX SAID. On the Other Hand, if NFP Surprises to the Upside, A Break Below $ 104,000 Could Trigger A Technical Correction.

“Overall, Bitcoin Now Finds Itelf at A CCCial Inflection Point, Shaped by Renewed Capital Inflows, Rising Specialize Next Major Trend in the Market “. Stay Alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • July 15: Lynq is Expert to Launch ITS Real-Time, Interest-Bearing Digital Asset Settlement Network for Institutions. Built on Avalanche’s Layer-1 Blockchain and Powered by Arca’s Tokenized Us Treasury Fund Shares, Lynq Enables Instant Settlement, Continuous Yield Accula
• Macro
  • July 3, 8:30 AM: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics Releases June Employment Data.
    • Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110k Vs. Prev. 139k
    • UNEMPLYMENT RATE EST. 4.3% Vs. Prev. 4.2%
    • Government Payrolls Prev. -1k
    • Manufacturing Payrols Est. -5k vs. Prev. -8k
  • July 3, 8:30 AM: The US Department of Labor Releases Unemployment Insurance Data for the Week Ended June 28.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 240k Vs. Prev. 236k
    • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1960k Vs. Prev. 1974k
  • July 3, 9 Am: S&P Global Releases June Brazil Data On Manual Reging and Services Activity.
    • Composite pmi prev. 49.1
    • Services PMI Prev. 49.6
  • July 3, 9:45 AM: S&P Global Releases (Final) June Us Data On Manual Reging and Services Activity.
    • Composite pmi est. 52.8 Vs. Prev. 53
    • Services PMI est. 53.1 Vs. Prev. 53.7
  • July 3, 10 Am: The Institute for Supple Management (ISM) Releases June US Service Sector Data.
    • Services PMI est. 50.5 Vs. Prev. 49.9
  • July 4, 8 AM: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) Release May Producer Price Inflation Data.
    • Ppi Mom Prev. -0.37%
    • Ppi yoy prev. 7.27%
  • July 4, 8 AM: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography Releases June Consumer Confidence Data.
    • Consumer Confidentnce Prev. 46.7
  • July 4, 9:30 AM: S&P Global Releases June Canada Data on Manupacturing and Services Activity.
    • Composite pmi prev. 45.5
    • Services PMI Prev. 45.6
  • July 9, 12:01 AM – Deadline for the European Union and Other US Trading Partners to Finalize Deals to Avoid Reinstatement of Reciprocal Tariffs on Imports.
  • July 9, 10 Am: US Senate Banking Committe Holds A Hybrid Hearing Titled “from Wall Street to Web3: Building Tomorrow’s Digital Asset Markets” with Ceos of Blockchina, Anasset. TESTIFYING. LIVESTREAM LINK.
• Earnings (Estimates Based On Factor Data)
  • None in the Near Future.

TKEN EVENTS

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Arbitrum Dao is voteing on Lowering the Constitutional Quorum Threshold from 5% to 4.5% of Votable Tokens. This Aims to Match Decreated Voter Participation and Help Well-Supported Proposals Passals More Easily, Without AFFERTING NON-CONSTITATION PROPOSALS, WHICH REMAIN AT A 3% Quorum. Voting Ends July 4.
  • Compound Dao is voteing on invoking the early termination clause of it 2025 Security Partnership with Foundation on Behalf of the Dao.Voting Ends July 7.
  • Polkadot Community is voteing on launching a non-Custodial Polkadot Branded Payment Card to “To Bridge the Gap Between Digital Assets in the Polkadot Ecosystom and Everyaday Specting. Voting Ends July 9.
  • July 3, 11 Am: Zilliqa to Host An Ask Me Anything (Ama) Session.
  • July 4, 10:30 AM: Moca Network to Host A Session on ‘What Makes Moca Chain Different?’ On Binance Live.
• Unlocks
  • July 11: immutable to unlock 1.31% of it Circulating Supple worth $ 11.43 Million.
  • July 12: Aptos to Unlock 1.76% of It Circulating Supple Worth $ 54.63 Million.
  • July 15: Starknet to Unlock 3.79% Of ITS Circulating Supple Worth $ 15.59 Million.
  • JULY 15: SEI TO UNLOCK 1% OF ITS CIRCULATING SUPPLY WORTH $ 15.76 Million.
  • July 16: Arbitrum to Unlock 1.87% of It Circulating Supple Worth $ 32.94 Million.
• TKEN LAUNCHES
  • July 3: Impossible Cloud Network Token (ICN) to be listed on binnace, bybit, bitget, gate.io kucoin, and others.
  • July 4: Biswap (BSW), Stella, Komodo (KMD), Leverfi (Lever), and Lto Network (LTO) to Be Delisted from Binance.

ConferencesThe Coindesk Policy & Regulation Conference (Formerly Known as State of Crypto) is a One-Day Boutique Event Held in Washington on Sept. 10 that Allows General Counsels, Compliment Officers and Regulatory Executives to Meet with Public Officials Responsible for Crypto Legislation and Regulatory Oversight. Space is limited. Use Code CDB10 For 10% Off Your Registration Through July 17.

• Day 4 of 4: Ethereum Community Conference (Cannes, France)
• Day 4 of 6: World Venture Forum 2025 (Kitzbühel, Austria)
• Day 3 of 6: Bitcoin Alaska (Juneau, Alaska)
• July 4-5: The Bitcoin Paradigm 2025 (Neuchâtel, Switzerland)
• July 4–6: Ethglobal Cannes (Cannes, France)
• July 10-13: Mallorca Blockchain Days (Palma, Spain)
• July 16: Invest Web3 Forum (Dubai)
• July 20: Crypto Coin Day 7/20 (Atlanta)
• July 24: Decasonic’s Web3 Investor Day 2025 (Chicago)
• July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
• July 28-29: Tws Conference 2025 (Singapore)

Token TalkBy oliver Knight

• AI-Focused Near Token Is Trading AT $ 2.36 Having Risen by 16.5% Since July 1.
• The Rally Accelerated Wednesday Following and AnnounCement from Fund Manager BitWise, WHICH IS ROLING OUT A NEAR Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) for Institute Invistors in Euro.
• Daily Trading Volume Doubbled Over The Past 24 Hours, Hitting $ 213 Million As Traders Attempt to Ride the Coattails of Near’s Recent Positive Shift in Sentiment.
• “The Near Staking Etp on Xetra Opens A New Bridge to Near for Institutions by Providing A Regulated, Exchange-Traded Way to Earn Staking Rewards,“ Near Protocol CEOSCOL CEO.
• Near’s Move Also Reflects Broader Altcoin Market Strength, with The Coindesk Defi Select Index Rising by 7.74% in the Past 24 Hours and Coindesk’s MEMECOIN INDEX IS
• Memocoins Bonk and WiF Are Leading The Pack, Up 21% and 15% Respectively on Thursday.

Derivatives Positioning

• Doge, LTC, XMR HAVE Seen the Biggest Increases in Open Interest in Perpetuals Listed on Offshore Exchanges. BTC, XRP Perpetual Futures Open Interest Has Jumped Over 5% in 24 Hours, Validating The Spot Price Rise.
• TRX and BCH Continue to See a Bias for Shorts, As EvidenCed by the Negative Funding Rates. Meanwhile, Funding Rates for XMR HAVE SURGED TO A ANNUALIZED 40%, Signifying Potential Overcrowing of Long Positions.
• Block Option Flows on Deribit Featred Bull Spreads in BTC – A Net Credit Strategy That Profits from Price Rise or Consolidation.
• In eth’s Case, A $ 2,800 Call Expiring on July 25 Was Lifted While Someone Sold A Call at $ 3,400.

Market Movements

• BTC IS UP 0.72% from 4 pm et Wednesday AT $ 109,970.87 (24hrs: +1.75%)
• ETH IS UP 0.33% AT $ 2,599.77 (24hrs: +5.63%)
• Coindesk 20 IS UP 1.51% AT 3.149.61 (24Hrs: +4.23%)
• Ether Cesr Composite Staking Rate Is Down 2 BPS at 2.98%
• BTC FUNDING RATE IS AT 0.0049% (5.3217% Annualized) On Binance

• DXY IS UP 0.05% AT 96.83
• Gold Futures Are UnChanged AT $ 3.356.90
• Silver Futures Are Up 0.81% AT $ 37.03
• Nikkei 225 CLOSED UNCHANGED AT 39,785.90
• Hang Seng Closed Down 0.63% AT 24,069.94
• Ftse is up 0.34% AT 8,804.35
• Euro Stoxx 50 is Down 0.26% AT 5,305.14
• Djia closed on Wednesday Down 0.02% AT 44,484.42
• S&P 500 CLOSED UP 0.47% AT 6,227.42
• NASDAQ composite closed up up 0.94% AT 20,393.13
• S&P/Tsx Composite Closed UnChanged AT 26,869.66
• S&P 40 Latin America Closed Up 0.99% AT 2.727.94
• US 10-YEAR Treasury Rate is Down 2.8 BPS at 4.265%
• E-mini S&P 500 Futures Are UnChanged AT 6,273.75
• E-mini NASDAQ-100 Futures are Unchanged at 22,838.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Are UnChanged AT 44,798.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 65.21% (-0.09%)
• Ether to Bitcoin Ratio: 0.02362 (Unchanged)
• Hashrate (Seven-Day MOVING AVERAGE): 872 eh/s
• HashPrice (Spot): $ 59.65
• Total Fees: 4.48 BTC / $ 483,647
• CME FUTures Open Interest: 151,540 BTC
• BTC PRICED IN GOLD: 32.7 OZ
• BTC VS Gold Market Cap: 9.27%

Technical AnalysisBTC Perpetual Futures Open Interest. (Velo)

• The Chart Shows Daily Changes in the Cumulative Open Interest in BTC Perpetuals Listed on Major Exchanges.
• Open Interest in BTC Terms Has Broken Out of A Descending Channel, Indicating Renewed Demand for Levered Bets.
• The Breakout Comes As The Spot Price Rises Above $ 110k, Suggesting A Bias for Bullish Plays.

Crypto equities

• Strategy (Mstr): Closed on Wednesday AT $ 402.28 (+7.76%), -4.83% AT $ 382.85 In Pre -Market
• Coinbase Global (Coin): CLOSED AT $ 354.45 (+5.7%), -3.8% AT $ 340.99
• Circle (CRCL): Closed AT $ 177.97 (-7.56%), +5.91% AT $ 188.49
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): CLOSED AT $ 22.22 (+4.27%), -2.07% AT $ 21.76
• Mara Holdings (Mara): CLOSED AT $ 17.80 (+13.38%), -10.28% AT $ 15.97
• Riot Platforms (Riot): CLOSED AT $ 12.20 (+8.25%), -5.33% at 11.55
• Core Scientific (Corz): CLOSED AT $ 17.56 (+1.8%), -2.11% AT $ 17.19
• Cleanspark (CLSK): CLOSED AT $ 12.48 (+12.64%), -8.65% AT $ 11.40
• Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Mines Etf (WGMI): Closed AT $ 25.15 (+8.92%), -7.24% AT $ 23.33
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): CLOSED AT $ 39.54 (+11.63%), -8.19% AT $ 36.30
• Exodus Movement (Exod): Closed At $ 29.44 (+1.52%), -0.65% AT $ 29.25

ETF FlowsSPOT BTC ETFS

• Daily Net Flows: $ 407.8 Million
• Cumulative Net Flows: $ 49.02 Billion
• Total BTC Holdings ~ 1.25 Million

Spot eth etfs

• Daily Net Flows: -$ 1.9 Million
• Cumulative Net Flows: $ 4.27 Billion
• Total Eth Holdings ~ 4.13 Million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight FlowsChart of the dayPolymarket-Listed Betting Contract “June Jobs Report Prints Negative?”

• The Polymarket-Listed Betting Contract “June Jobs Report Prints Negative?” Indicates that traders perceive an 11% chance that thursday’s nonfarch Payrols Report Will Report Reveal Job Losses in June.
• In Other Words, The Bar of Negative Expectations Has Been Set Low and the Market May React Violently if the Data Does Show Job Losses.
• Weker Labor Market Data Will Likely Strengten the CHANCE OF FED RATE CUTS, BREEDING BULLISH BITCOIN VALATCY.

While You Were Sleeping

• Trump’s Megabill Advances in The House After Gop Divisions Nearly Deril IT (CNBC): Despite Internal Gop Divisions Over Medicaid Cuts and A Higher Debt Ceiling, House Republican Early Thursday, Clearing the Way for Debate Ahead of A Final Vote.
• A Majoor Currency Outpaces Bitcoin with More Possible Momentum Ahead: Macro Markets (Coindesk): As US Fiscal Fears Mount and Ecb Rate Rate Rabyst. To Retherink Their Dollar Bets.
• Pakistan Pitches Nobel, Crypto and Rare Earths to Woo Donald Trump (Financial Times): To Secure A Favorable Trade Deal, Pakistan Is Pledging to Build a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Reserve Reserve Reserve. Mining and Partner with Trump-affilized Crypto Firms Like World Liberty Financial.
• Trump Trade War Fuels Use of Currency Options As Hedge in Europe (Bloomberg): Following Trump’s “Liberation Day” Tariffs, Daily Fx Option Volumes HitBhs Highs in Inn. Jump in 2025 Sales As Europe Firms favored options overwards.
• Russia Poses Growing Military Threat to Nato Members, Italy Says (Reuters): Italy’s Defense Minister Warned Russia Could Pose a Military Threat to Nato of Ficin. Ukraine War Remains Strong Despite One Million Troop Losses.
• Swiss Bank Amina Introducts Custody, Trading with Ripple’s Rlusd Stablecoin (Coindesk) Plans to Expand Services in the Coming Months.

In the Ether