The conflict of Russia and Azerbaijan entered the hot phase: causes and consequences

Photo: Gettyimages.com

The great “geostrate” of modernity Vladimir Putin managed to quarrel in both Armenia and Azerbaijan in a week. The other day, the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan have arranged mutual obstruction to each other, and which it will be outlined – is still unknown. Briefly about – About how Russia and Azerbaijan are measured by force, hinting at more serious problems in the future.

As it all began In 2001, the murder of Yunis Pashayev, Azerbaijan, near the Caspian cafe, which belonged to the brothers, occurred in Yekaterinburg. Safarov. Then the Safarov could not be held accountable due to lack of evidence, and Pashayev’s case remained undisclosed.

But suddenly in 2025, she was a reason for the high-profile raid of the Ekaterinburg law enforcement agencies against the Azerbaijani diaspora. However, the raid was not the first: the murders and attempts on the Azerbaijanis in the city were, if not habitual, it is definitely not single episodes. The public abandoned information about the “ethnic criminal group”. Azerbaijan expressed a polite surprise. The Russians sang “I – Russian” and habitually shouted that nationalists – only in Ukraine, and they are valiant law enforcement.

But all this prehistory could remain an episode in a police chronicle, if it were not for the tragedy in December 2024, when the aircraft accident at the ACTAU became a mine of slow action for the inevitable conflict.

Aircraft as one of the reasons We will remind, on December 25, 2024 the aircraft “Azerbaijani airlines” from Baku to the Grozny fell near Actau (Kazakhstan). Of the 67 people on board, 38 were killed. Surwide those reported explosions and Shrapnel, and on the wreckage of the aircraft there were traces of “foreign metal objects”, probably from the Russian anti-aircraft missile “shell-C1”. The Azerbaijani authorities immediately accused the Russian air defense. Moscow offered to choose alternative versions: collisions with birds and explosion of oxygen cylinders.

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, having learned about the catastrophe in the air on the way to the CIS summit in St. Petersburg, deployed the plane and called an emergency meeting in Baku. He publicly criticized Russia for “absurd” versions and demanded an apology, compensation and a transparent investigation. Putin said the sluggish apologies, but did not admit guilty. In response, Azerbaijan closed the Russian House in Baku and suspended flights to Russian cities, including Sochi and UFU.

The investigation in Kazakhstan confirmed that the aircraft was damaged by external objects. The black boxes were sent to Brazil, which became a gesture of distrust of the Russian aviation. Data from the decoding of boxes in Azerbaijan promise to submit in a few days.

Moscow never apologized for the plane shot down by Russian air defense. Photo: facebook.com/azamat.sarsenbaev

“Heart failure” with broken ribs It would seem where the connection between the shelling of the aircraft and the old murder of Azerbaijan, but he is, if he realized that Azerbaijan has started to get rid of the Moscow metropolis. First, because it is no longer a republic of the USSR and not a colony, but an independent country for 30 years as. And secondly, to consider the Azerbaijanis idiots and, almost laughing, to offer them versions with birds in turbines-it is not necessary.

The aggressiveness of the Russians against the Azerbaijanis, who wanted too much, reached a peak. On June 27 this year, Russian security forces held a large -scale raid against the Azerbaijani diaspora in Yekaterinburg, holding about 50 people. It is stated that all of them are citizens of Russia of Azerbaijani origin. The operation was related to the investigation of the killings of 2001, 2010 and 2011, in particular, the murder of Yunis Pashayev.

During this raid, brothers were killed-55-year-old Ziadin and 60-year-old Husein Safarova, owners of Caspium cafe. That is, they went to the interrogation with their feet – they were seen by many people, and they all claim that the brothers were cheerful and healthy. And after a while, the Safarov’s bodies were issued from the police morgue, indicating the cause of death “heart failure”.

The compatriots sent bodies to Azerbaijan, where the police conducted their examination. However, everything was clear there: after communicating with Russian security forces on the bodies of the Safarovy there were traces of torture, fractures of ribs and hemorrhages.

The autopsy showed that Ziaddin and Husein Safarova died from torture. Photo: instagram.com/1news.aze

The special forces invited a witness While in Azerbaijan, they thought as censorship to protest against the arbitrariness of the Russians, seven Azerbaijanis were arrested on charges of killings and attempts. The detainees were sent to court with visible traces of beating. The Azerbaijan Foreign Ministry caused a temporary attorney on the carpet and, not particularly ceremony with the wording, accused Moscow of “deliberate and extrajudicial murder” on ethnic soil. The Azerbaijan Prosecutor General’s Office has opened a case under deliberate murder and torture.

One of the bright episodes of these raids was Shahin Shikhlinsky’s detention, the head of the Azerbaijan-Ural organization on July 1. Together with his son, he was traveling at Helandwagen, when the special forces broke the windows of the car near the Baku Player shopping center and pulled both. The son was released after the interrogation, and Shahina was left as a witness in the case of the murder of 2001–2011, related to the Safarov brothers.

It is unlikely that in the world legal practice, witnesses are taken to the courtroom in a similar way.

Schihlinsky is known as the influential Diaspora leader, he participated in the negotiations in the Safarov case, and his arrest caused the greatest resonance. The Azerbaijanis finally expressed a clear protest, the media compared the actions of security forces with the repression of the NKVD. After the interrogation, Schihlinsky was released on July 1, but the fire of mutual image and claims is already being fulfilled.

People’s dissatisfaction began during the funeral of the Safarov brothers. Photo: report.Az

“Burn the embassy” “In the case of bloody massacres, Putin overtook Stalin himself.” “What happened, Mr. Putine? You are so worried that Azerbaijan has become a strong state? ” – Azerbaijani media called, and everything turned …

Baku answered the arrests of Russian journalists, as well as abolished all Russian cultural events, including concerts and exhibitions plus a visit to Viceremier of the Russian Federation Alexei Overchuk. June 29 The Parliament of the Grabijani refused to go to Moscow to a meeting of the Inter -Parliamentary Commission, accusing Russia of xenophobia. The voice of the people was made by the journalist of Afghan Mukhtarla, who urged to burn the Russian embassy.

On June 30, the Azerbaijani security forces held a raid at the Sputnik Azerbaijan office in Baku, holding about 10 Russian journalists. They were accused of fraud and illegal entrepreneurship, the authorities hinted (loud and confidently) on the FSB. The court in Baku arrested two of the detainees for four months, and Russian diplomats did not access the detainees. The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned Azerbaijan Ambassador Rakhman Mustafayev, accused Baku of the Russophobic Campaign and Damage of Bilateral Relations.

Of course, this did not change anything – the flywheel is unwound without stopping. Another detainee in Baku was suspected of transit drugs from Iran, online trades with prohibited substances, as well as in cybershachray. It is noteworthy that the vast majority of detainees are young men who have escaped from the Russian Federation from violent mobilization: ITishniki, software developers, there is a psychologist and just a tourist.

The staff from the courtroom shows that the detained Russians were beaten. Everyone was taken into custody for 4 months.

Have expressed anxiety and are waiting for it all over Traditional anxiety was expressed immediately: NATO called for a careful investigation into ACTA’s catastrophe, the United States named the “test” incident on the ability of Azerbaijan to defend its interests in front of Russia. Everyone is closely monitored by Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, who are friends with Russia, but are already afraid that the Russian Federation will become a “toxic” friend. Turkey, a strategic ally of Azerbaijan, has declared support for Baku several times, although she did not take direct action. The UN and the OSCE were called for de -escalation.

The worst part is President Kazakhstan, where the disaster occurred. Kasim-Zhomart Tokaev Akrobat balances between Moscow and Baku, avoiding public accusations and preferring streamlined wording such as “unidentified objects” in the aircraft.

What to wait next? While the parties will show each other who will break the detainees more strongly, may collect the already breathing communication of the Russian Federation and Azerbaijan in the project of the North-South transport corridor, which should connect Russia with Iran through Azerbaijan. The latter – a key gas supplier to Europe – can strengthen cooperation with the EU to compensate for losses from a break with Russia.

For Kazakhstan, the conflict created a risk to export oil through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CTC), 80% of which passes through Russia. Astana losses can be billions of dollars if Russia uses a pipeline as a pressure lever.

In Russia, the Azerbaijani diaspora, which has about 1 million people, has encountered xenophobia increasing. The raid in Yekaterinburg provoked the outflow of Azerbaijani entrepreneurs, and since the Diaspora controls part of the trade, there will be a war for its redistribution. Russian cultural projects were closed in Azerbaijan. Even information about the closure of Russian -speaking schools and the transition to the Azerbaijani language of study. However, the official authorities denied this information.

This conflict of the year became a mirror that reflected old images and new ambitions. Will Baku can reach justice and Moscow keep his face? All questions will answer time.

Source: kp.ua