“Recently, the negotiation process around the Ukrainian case has completely stalled. After several rounds in Istanbul, which in general occurred solely because of serious pressure from the Donald Trump administration, the parties did not come to anything. And then there was a serious exacerbation: the operation of “spider web”, strengthening of terrorist attacks of the Russian Federation on Ukrainian cities, escalation on the front, the new war of Israel”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
Recently, the negotiation process around the Ukrainian case has completely stalled. After a few rounds in Istanbul which, in general, occurred exclusively because of serious pressure from the Donald Trump administration, the parties have not come to anything.
And then there was a serious exacerbation: surgery “Web” strengthening of terrorist attacks of the Russian Federation on Ukrainian cities, escalation on the front, the new war of Israel with Iran … On this complex internal and external background, negotiations around Ukraine actually stopped for several weeks.
However, both US President Donald Trump and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, and other Kremlin representatives say that negotiations can be renewed after June 22. After all, it is then that the period of execution of previously achieved agreements on the exchanges of prisoners, wounded and bodies of the dead will expire.
Will new talks have any prospect and whether they have any sense at all? UA.news political observer Nikita Trachuk Together with the experts he dealt with the question.
How did the negotiations in Istanbul failed
In the spring, negotiations in Istanbul received their main momentum under heavy pressure from Donald Trump and his administration members. It was America who decided to act as a key peacekeeper on the Ukrainian case and make the parties sit down at the negotiating table.
But this initiative approach was, unfortunately, the most theater for one viewer – in fact, the American leader. That is, it was a situational communication move aimed at demonstrating readiness for peace without real political will on both sides. That is why no peace or at least a steady truce and didn’t happen.
There were several rounds of negotiations in Istanbul, the parties tried to agree on something, but only the humanitarian part became key: the exchange of prisoners and wounded. This is certainly an overrevering initiative that saved thousands of people’s lives. However, it is worth noting that such decisions do not require high diplomatic talks. Exchanges and so constantly occur through special services, authorized bodies and various informal channels.
Therefore, the very essence of Istanbul negotiations is not a peaceful settlement. It is imitation, demonstration of dialogue, political technology and desire to play on stage in front of The viewer Washington, in order not to make the latter miss and disappoint his visa. And so the negotiations failed. And after June escalation, the dialogue stopped.
No constructive shifts are currently visible. Applications for restoring negotiations after June 22 are just a symbolic promise. Yes, there is a fairly high likelihood that they will really happen. But the prospects of such negotiations look foggy.
Diplomacy as a chance to a miracle
Despite the obvious stagnation, the point in continuing negotiations is clearly. The history of any war shows the pattern: after a serious escalation, there is always a very relative, but lull-and it gives a new chance for a political maneuver. However, this chance does not automatically occur, but is formed gradually.
It is in the situational comfort that the opportunity to “feel” the positions of the opposite party appears: it has not changed under the pressure of hostilities, economic sanctions or internal political crisis. From this there may be weak signals – internal protest in the Russian Federation, perturbation in elites, or, on the other hand, fatigue in Ukraine and external pressure on Kiev by the US. And then diplomacy can create a “miracle”.
That is, the meaning of negotiations is that the fate is sometimes solved not by force, but by the mutual recognition of the infinity of bloodshed and the lack of meaning in it. Therefore, even one chance of a thousand is still a chance that deserves attention.
At the same time, let us be realists: real prospects to end the war in the near future. And not because negotiations are meaningless, but because key entities – Russia and Ukraine – are not motivated for no compromise.
Russia believes that it can continue to press on the front. It is Moscow’s logic, time -tested: war – It is an instrument that brings the result by itself, in the form of war for the sake of war. And in the Kremlin do not want to agree to the disadvantages, from their point of view, the conditions, because they think they can achieve more.
Ukraine is also not ready for peace on current conditions. From the point of view of Kiev, concession is a loss of national interests, territories and security. Therefore, both parties do not see a compromise base in the hypothetical peace agreement, which causes further continuation of the fighting.
It is important to realize here: diplomacy is not only large agreements, but also small failures in the military mechanism. Exchanges, temporary truce, negotiating pauses are all diplomacy. And better at least some diplomacy than its complete absence.
How can war end in Ukraine
In the context of all of the above, the question is actualized: how can the confrontation between Kiev and Moscow be completed? Many experts give different forecasts and outline different options. In particular, the German edition Welt He writes about three main scenarios.
The first is a peaceful settlement due to negotiations. This scenario provides for a political agreement between Ukraine and Russia. But it is unlikely because the parties occupy an irreconcilable position. Its implementation is possible only in the case of radical internal transformation in one of the parties – for example, changes in power in Russia or significant pressure on Ukraine by Western allies.
The second is frost. German analysts believe that this is the most likely scenario for the medium term. It means termination of active fighting without a final peace treaty. The front line is fixed, but the war does not end legally. The situation will resemble a Korean war, where the parties exist in a state of prolonged confrontation without diplomatic settlement.
Finally, the third option is the military victory of one side. Such a scenario is possible only in the long run and requires complete depletion of one of the participants – both material and psychological.
Expert opinions
Political scientist, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Policy Ruslan Bortnik explains: such date is chosen because by June 22 the parties fulfill those arrangements that have been reached under h AC of the second round of negotiations in Istanbul. We are talking about the exchange of bodies and enthusiastic persons up to 25 years, over 60 years, wounded, seriously ill, etc.
“These conditions must be fulfilled. And then the potential of dialogue and the road to determine the next round of negotiations will open. And perhaps next week we will hear a certain date and place of the next round of negotiations … Negotiations, as we can see, are now going in parallel with the war. This is a consequence of the collapse of the Minsk negotiation process. It is a demonstration of extreme distrust between the parties, especially from Russia to Ukraine and the West. As Russia believes that any stop of hostilities will play in the hand of Ukraine and the situation with the Minsk agreements will be repeated. And most likely, in such a track we will continue. From time to time escalation, rocket launchers or rocket-punks, as well as changes in the situation at the front-all this will affect the negotiation process that will be unchanged by at least this fall ”,”, ” The expert says.
According to Bortnik, the prospects for success in these negotiations remain. But, unfortunately, such probability is sufficiently small.
“Ukraine and Russia are not able to make each other for deep concessions, and even ceasefire can only be achieved by actually through US concessions. These negotiations today remain in the manual management of leaders and depend significantly on their ambitions, to a lesser extent, they even depend on public opinion, to a greater extent on ambitions. Therefore, the continuation or cessation of war, as well as the achievement of peace, can be quite sudden and unexpected for societies, ”, Ruslan Bortnik summarized.
Political scientist, head of the Center for Applied Political Studies “Penta” Vladimir Fesenko He says that the new talk round in Istanbul is likely to happen. But his success under a huge question.
“Today it is absolutely obvious that these negotiations will not end the war. Russia is not going to negotiate on the end of the war, and there are no other options. Well, except surrender. But it is obvious that Ukraine will not go to it. Therefore, at the moment, in the future, the likelihood of successful peace talks is almost zero. But a tactical game continues around the negotiations. And the one who goes out of the negotiation will look like a side that does not want to end the war. This is a bet on this. For Putin, it is a personal game with Trump, the Kremlin needs to be demonstrated that he is allegedly ready to negotiate. But in fact it is a delay in negotiations and an effort to squeeze Ukraine, ” – summarized Vladimir Fesenko.
Summing up: the negotiation process at this stage is rather the theater than a real peace tool. Istanbul was an impulse, but its results are purely humanitarian. What many, but this is not the main purpose of political meetings in Turkey.
However, it is also impossible to ignore negotiations. They give space to test positions and leave absolutely minimal, but still a chance to stop the war.
So is it worth waiting for real negotiations after June 22? The prospects are frankly doubtful. But even a small chance is that the dialogue tools are not finally blocked.