“After Moscow ignored the call for the establishment of a 30-day armistice and resorted to manipulations around peace talks in Istanbul, in Brussels on May 14, they announced that at the ambassadors agreed the 17th package of sanctions against the Russian Federation. The next Western sanctions increase the cost of war for Russia, but have not forced the aggressor country to retreat. And just testified that the Kremlin is ready for any”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
After Moscow ignored the call for the establishment of a 30-day armistice and resorted to manipulations around peace talks in Istanbul, in Brussels on May 14, they announced that at the ambassadors agreed the 17th package of sanctions against the Russian Federation.
The next Western sanctions increase the cost of war for Russia, but have not forced the aggressor country to retreat. They just testified that the Kremlin is ready for any loss of both economic and human, to achieve its goals in Ukraine.
UA.news, together with experts, tells what sanctions can actually become “devastating” for Russia and in which case Western countries can apply them.
The next package of EU sanctions
It is expected that the 17th package of EU restrictive measures will cover approximately 30 companies that help Russians avoid Western sanctions. Nearly 200 vessels of the “shadow fleet” of the Russian Federation, which export oil to bypassing price restriction, were included in the “black list”.
The EU will also prohibit the issuance of visas and freeze assets for almost 75 individuals and legal entities that are relevant to armed aggression against Ukraine. In addition, the ambassadors agreed additional sanctions against the Russian Federation for human rights violations and hybrid attacks on other countries. They plan to limit the export of chemicals used for weapons production.
The package did not cause disputes because it included only a few economic measures and was relatively weak. Because of this, it was not blocked by such EU countries as Hungary and Slovakia, which are strongly dependent on the import of Russian energy.
It should be noted that the 17th package of sanctions against the Russian Federation should be approved during the Council of the European Union in foreign affairs, which will take place on May 20. After that, the next-the 18th package of sanctions will begin.
“We have many ideas (on strengthening sanctions – ed.) From the previous rounds. If you want to achieve real influence, then energy and banks would be logical but also complex (for the imposition of sanctions – ed.) Through Hungary », – told about working on measures against the Russian Federation, one of the EU diplomats by Politico.
At the same time, the European Union is working on proposals to stop fossil fuel imports from Russia as part of the RePowreu road card. New laws will be adopted by June by June.
As Russia withstands economic pressure
The scale of Western sanctionsintroduced in recent years against Russia, looks unprecedented. As of 2024, more than 16,000 restrictions on Russian citizens and companies were announced. According to CSIS research, approximately 70% of assets in the banking system of the Russian Federation are under sanctions. Officials and oligarchs faced freezing assets and traveling bans. Due to sanctions, frozen assets and impact on the cost of energy, Russia has lost more than $ 500 billion possible income.
The role of China. To mitigate economic losses from sanctions, Russia has turned towards China. The bilateral trade between Moscow and Beijing has reached an unprecedented level. In 2023, the turnover between the Russian Federation and China reached a record $ 237 billion, which means growth of more than 70% since 2021.
Although most of this trade is on Chinese production, the PRC has also become a key transshipment point of imported products to Russia, playing a vital role of the main partner of the Russian Federation to bypass sanctions.
Oil trade, which provides the lion’s share of the Russian state budget, has reoriented to new markets. India, China and Turkey are the key buyers of Russian oil. Despite the strengthening of sanctions from the EU and the US, Russia continues to rely largely on the shadow fleet, attracting both sanctioned and new vessels to support oil exports.
Thus, in January 2025, Russian exports from oil exports increased by $ 1 billion to $ 15.8 billion because of higher prices for raw materials and petroleum products, KSE Institute writes. Data for 2024 show that total revenues of aggressor country increased by $ 4 billion in annual dimension, exceeding $ 189 billion.
According to KSE Institute, Russia’s income from oil selling for current oil prices and sanction quo will reach $ 149 billion in 2025 and $ 131 billion in 2026.
It should be noted that as of February 24, 2025, the United States, the United Kingdom and the EU have already imposed sanctions against 311 tankers for violations of Russian oil transportation restrictions.
Despite the ban, 63 of these vessels continued their activities. Of the 159 tankers that the United States made to the sanction list for violations in 2024, 31 shipped oil after it was under sanctions, and some of them managed to unload it. At the same time, from the beginning of this year, 29 new tankers were joined in Russian oil, which were not involved in 2024.
American Republican Senator Lindsey Graham
What sanctions can click on Russia – expert estimates
It is not correct to talk about the adaptation of the Russian economy to sanctions, when the Russian shoulders are China and covers all the needs for double use goods, stresses Executive Director of the Economic Discussion Club Oleg Pendzin.
“Just a European, American manufacturer is replaced by Chinese. Moreover, it is often possible to observe when the European and American components needed for the military-industrial complex, through China come to Russia … Sanctions hit the economy of the Russian Federation clearly. The income from the oil and gas complex has fallen, there is a bunch of economy sectors that are under sanctions, but 80% of Russian oil is purchased by India – China. It should be understood that the Russians have simply changed the direction of implementation. “
Oleg Penzin, Executive Director of Economic Discussion Club
According to Oleg Pendzin, the Russian Federation was unable to withstand the pressure of Western sanctions. It is only through external support that the Russian Federation can exist for a long time and transfer the economy to military rails. In such a situation, secondary sanctions that could restrain Moscow could be restrained. Such restrictions were previously offered by the American Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.
“Lindsey Graham proposed secondary sanctions for those countries that buy Russian energy. This bill is in the United States Parliament. These sanctions provide for the introduction of 500% of duties on goods that go to the US market. But considering that the lion’s share of what the Russians buy and sell are Chinese, and China has already reached an agreement with the United States to reduce duties by 115-120%. So such a bill Lindsey Graham was just physically late. He will not be able to close all this issue, ” – explains Pendzin.
The key role of the United States in economic pressure on Moscow also emphasizes Maxim Nesvitaylov, International Expert:
“When it comes to Europe, it looks like they are finally ready for decisive steps and sanctions concerning energy and banking sector. Perhaps even secondary sanctions. But in this aspect, the role of the United States of America is extremely important. If it really is in the format that he offered and promoted in the Senate Lindsey Graham, it can work. But how much can you rely on the US? It is quite difficult to talk about it, because Trump is in a negative sense, the “master of his word.” Today he gives the word – tomorrow he takes it. Therefore, this whole story with Grame and his sanction package looks more like a bluff and an attempt at such a minimal pressure on the Russian Federation. “
Maxim Nesvitaylov skeptically evaluates the possibility of imposing secondary sanctions on the part of the United States that could affect China: “Hardly. One thing is to bluff customs policy and then sign a deal. And another thing is to go to the end and such duties. “
Direct sanctions will only have a partial effect on the banking sector and the oil sector of Russia, the expert said.
“It is not only about sanctions… In the absence of effective punishment for countries that help Russia to circumvent sanctions (as we can see, no one has yet answered it), restrictions will not be so murdered and critical for the Russian Federation. You should finally focus on secondary sanctions for those who help Russia. Then it really will give the effect. But critically, only intensification of military assistance to Ukraine can be critical in the short term, as it will change the situation on the battlefield, therefore can affect the Russians. “
Maxim Nesvitaylov, an international expert
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