April Cpi Undershoots Forecast at 2.3% AS Trump Tariffs Enter Picture

ENERGY PRICES REBOUND AFTER MARCH DECLINE Energy Prices posted a 0.7% Increase in April after Falling 2.4% The Prior MONT. This was Driven by Higher Costs for Natural Gas (+3.7%) and Electricity (+0.8%), WHICH OFFSET A 0.1%Drop in Gasoline on a Seasonally Adjusted Basis. Despite The Rebound, Energy Remains 3.7% Lower Over The Year, with Gasoline Down Nearly 12%.

Core Inflation Holds Steady Belated Forecast Excluding Food and Energy, Core Cpi Increased 0.2% for the month, Below The Forecasted 0.3%. Year-Over-Year, Core Inflation Remoned Steady at 2.8%, Meeting Expectations. Key Contributors Included Medical Care (+0.5%), Motor Vehicle Insurance (+0.6%), and Household Furnishings (+1.0%). Airline Fares Continued to Fall Sharply, Down Another 2.8%, Following March’s 5.3% Decline.

Food Prices Flat As Grocery Costs Fall Food Prices Edged Down 0.1%in April, with Food at Home Deckling 0.4%, Marking The Steepest Drop Since 2020. Conversely, Food Away from Home Rose 0.4%, Led By A 0.6% Increase in Full-Service Meals. Year-Over-Year, Food Prices Are Up 2.8%.

Market Forecast: Cautious Bullishness with Tariff Risk Ahead April’s Inflation Data Points to A CAUTYUSLISH OUTLOOK for Traders, with Price Growth Appearing Contained and Slightly Belated Forecasts. While Core Service Remain Firm, The Broader Picture Supports Expectations for Policy Stability. However, The Inflation Impact of Trump’s Tariffs Remains An Open Risk Heading Into Summer, Especially IF Trade Tensions Escalate. Traders Should Monitor Negotias Closely for Signals on Consumer Cost Pressures.