If not Zelensky

Our country loves to play in seeming totology.

We will argue that it would have happened if Vyacheslav Chornovil won in 1991. Was Ukraine it could remain a nuclear state in 1994. Was it realistic to get a NATO VAT in 2008. But in the last three years, the country’s main dispute is as far as the 2019 election has been affected.

Proponents of the fifth president say that his re -election could prevent a full -scale war. That the missile program and the re -equipment of the army would make the Kremlin think. That Petro Poroshenko in the ballots was the main representative of the “agenda of sovereignty”, and therefore his victory would be an unambiguous signal of Moscow and the world about the seriousness of Ukrainian intentions.

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Proponents of this concept come from the fact that the victory of Vladimir Zelensky was a wick for Russian ambitions. That the political inexperience of the triumphant provoked Putin to prepare for the invasion. That the result of the 2019 elections was convinced by the Kremlin of seriousness of Ukrainian statehood and anecdotics of its leadership. Therefore, he made the war inevitable.

These conclusions are based on the assumption that the Ukrainian army and the political will of the fifth president were previously a obstacle to the invasion. What Vladimir Zelensky position of the Armed Forces and the countries weakened so much that Ukraine became vulnerable. But what can it be assumed that the Kremlin has never been perceived by the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian state as a full rival? The concept of the “Second Army in the World” was not born yesterday, and until February 2022, Moscow had no reason to doubt it. What is the only reason why the invasion has not begun earlier is Moscow’s confidence that you can do without it?

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In the end, the Kremlin has decided on its attitude to our country during the annexation of Crimea. Since then, all its steps have been aimed only at dismantling Ukrainian statehood. The second Minsk agreements have insisted on Moscow’s illusion that it will be able to sell Kiev for voluntary rejection of sovereignty. And as long as the hope was preserved that Ukraine would follow the Bosnian scenario, it served as a deferral for the power version.

For the fifth president, these expectations were balanced by Ukrainian reality. The Parliament had pro -Moscow factions. In the media space there are pro -Russian TV channels. All this could create in the Kremlin the illusion that the next electoral coil in power in Ukraine will come those who would turn the country into another “Belarus”. It is possible that the victory of Vladimir Zelensky was taken in Moscow exactly.

And much that he eagerly gave reasons to think so. He was ready to see peace in the eyes of the Russian President. Called for negotiations. In September 2019, Moscow even handed over 35 prisoners to Kiev, including Oleg Sentsov-as a kind of encouragement of new Ukrainian politics. And then the hope of Moscow began to melt on the final diplomatic solution of the Ukrainian issue.

The Minsk agreements remained on a pause. Elections in the occupied territories were again tied to the withdrawal of Russian troops. No one became the constitution. At the beginning of 2021, the new Ukrainian authorities in general imposed sanctions against Viktor Medvedchuk and TV channels belonging to him. If before that there were illusions in the Kremlin as to conquer Ukraine without war, then at that moment they finally scattered.

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There is a lot of irony in all this.

The Kremlin laid the Great War not because of Ukrainian force. He could put it on Ukrainian compromises. It was they who allowed to exist in our domestic politics to all the people who sold Moscow the idea of ​​their inevitable victory in the elections. If these politicians have disappeared from the life of Ukraine earlier, then a full -scale invasion could occur under the cadence of Petro Poroshenko.

The idea of ​​a blitzkrig was born in the Kremlin not because of the inexperience of the sixth President of Ukraine. It could be born as a reaction to the clearing of the political landscape from Moscow agents. The sanctions were deprived of their ability to sell themselves to the Kremlin as future Kiev governors. And replacing the Moscow concept of “soft power” came to the idea of ​​rigid power.

Supporters of the fifth president are convinced that the victory of the hawk in the 2019 elections could protect our country from the war. But more likely, such a scenario could deprive the Kremlin of illusions even earlier. He could push that war was the only chance to “return” Ukraine. And if so, the invasion scenario could have been launched before February 2022.

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It is likely that the victory of Vladimir Zelensky did not become a catalyst for the invasion. On the contrary – she could delay him. While the sixth president sent signals to Moscow about his own contract, the Kremlin could consider the invasion of excess. As soon as the sixth President of Ukraine began to speak the political language of his predecessor – the war became inevitable.

Russia did not start the war because Zelensky won in 2019, not because Poroshenko lost. The war began because Medvedchuk did not win.

Here and all over.

Pavel Kazarin, for the UP

A column is a material that reflects the author’s point of view. The text of the column does not claim the objectivity and comprehensive coverage of the topic that rises in it. The editorial board of “Ukrainian Truth” is not responsible for the accuracy and interpretation of the information provided and plays only the role of the carrier. The point of view of the UP editorial board may not coincide with the point of view of the author of the column.