“The war for exhaustion with the Russian aggressor is not only fighting on the line of collision, but above all the confrontation between resources, state management systems and readiness to continue the struggle. Every year “Full -scale” does not go without a trace – we see more and more negative manifestations of martial law in politics and economy, our social life is changing – the gap between the welfare of Ukrainians is increasing”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
The war for exhaustion with the Russian aggressor is not only fighting on the line of collision, but above all the confrontation between resources, state management systems and readiness to continue the struggle. Every year, “full -scale” does not go without a trace – we see more and more negative manifestations of martial law in politics and economy, our social life is changing – the gap between the well -being of Ukrainians and Europeans is increasing.
Systemic view of these and other problems that eat the country during the war, about future elections and potential for the development of a new industrial economy – in a great interview with UA.news told Anatoly Kinakh, former NSDC Secretary and Expremier-Minister of Ukraine, President of the Ukrainian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs. We publish the first part of the interview.
About deformation of the economy under the pressure of war
The full -scale Russian invasion of the territory of Ukraine has become a protracted war on the depletion of resources. The enemy purposefully destroys our residential, transport, energy and industrial infrastructure. According to the World Bank, the scale of direct loss is approaching $ 600 billion. This is official statistics. Unfortunately, these are huge volumes.
Ukraine now has about 78% of the GDP we had in 2021. That is, the loss is minus 22%. I will dwell on key destruction.
Energy infrastructure. Before the full -scale war, the total electricity generation capacity was approximately 18 GW. We now have about 9 GW, that is, 50% of the total generation has been destroyed. First of all, it concerns thermal energy. We have lost the largest nuclear power plant in Europe – the Zaporozhye NPP, which gave Ukraine a minimum of 20% of all energy generation.
Residential sector. Tens of millions of square meters of housing were destroyed. For comparison, the maximum volumes that were planned to be put into operation before the war reached about 11 million m². At least 60 million m² is now destroyed, according to various estimates. And these losses are felt constantly.
Transport logistics. Large -scale destruction is also difficult to use our ports, especially on the Black and Azov Seas. Before a full-scale war, we supplied about 80% of all export products of the mining and metallurgical complex, agrarian and other industries through seaports.
The losses are very serious. They need not just to pay attention, but to act today. Because it is the problem of loss of self -sufficiency of the economy and the negative impact on the defense capability of the state. Thus, in 2024, we funded state expenditures at the expense of revenues from the Ukrainian economy only by 48%. And 52% were external assistance, which mostly needs to be returned: loans, loans. Ukraine’s national debt increased sharply: if in 2021 it was 49% of GDP, then at the beginning of 2025-92% of GDP. This is a huge debt load.
About human capital and social standards
Ukraine is losing the most valuable now – human potential. There will be nothing without people. 7 million Ukrainians abroad in refugee status. Since 2014, because the war began in 2014, we have officially have another 4.7 million internally displaced persons. These are internal refugees who lost everything.
The demographic situation is unprecedentedly threatening. According to official data, 177 thousand newborns were registered in 2024, and deaths – 495 thousand. Mortality in Ukraine is now almost three times higher than the birth rate. A very threatening demographic pit is formed. Today it is necessary to create a quality strategy of demographic development and implement it.
I will pay attention to social standards. During the war, this sphere was even more deformation. The main problem is that the gap between standards of quality of life in Ukraine and neighboring countries of Eastern Europe is increasing. Here are official data for 2025. In Ukraine, the normatively approved level of monthly minimum wage is equal to 8 thousand UAH. In Poland – 47 thousand, in the Czech Republic – 35 thousand, in Germany – 98 thousand in UAH. And we need to return Ukrainians to our native land. Do you understand what decision our citizens will make against the background of such a gap at the level of social standards?
It is striking, in particular, our government structures, including parliament. In a situation where millions of people need to be returned from abroad, they have frozen social standards, including a minimum wage at 8 thousand UAH for three years in advance until 2027. Even this little light was closed at the end of the tunnel. This is unacceptable.
On the contrary, you need to do everything to raise the production of your resources, the economy. And on this basis, to prove to people that the state will do the maximum to improve social standards, so that there is some prospect and hope.
The risks and statistics I called are very painful. But this is the truth that citizens need to know. This is the only way to form precise systematic solutions aimed at Ukraine that Ukraine is out of this huge tragedy, a huge exam, a stronger exam.
I emphasize once again – we need not only to protect our freedom, territorial integrity, our civilizational choice. We need to renew our economic self -sufficiency very seriously and gradually without waiting for the war. To put it bluntly, the next day after the announcement of peace or truce, we must immediately use our entire potential, have ready programs, projects for the development of a modern and competitive state.
About the defense-industrial complex of Ukraine
It is natural that the defense-industrial complex now demonstrates a sufficiently high rate of development. This confirms that Ukraine has great scientific, technical, industrial and personnel potential. This is from a positive one. Concerning the problems that need to be addressed.
The first problem. Until now, we do not have a clear state policy, a program of reforming and development of the industrial complex. And the situation has changed dramatically. It is especially necessary to strengthen the direction of public-private partnership. In the volume of production of the Ukrainian defense industry, the share of private business is several times higher than the indicators of state -owned enterprises. But, unfortunately, the attitude towards private companies remains, as they say, on a residual basis. This should be changed and created to effectively involve private business and capital in the defense and industrial complex. This requires equal transparent conditions.
The second problem -insufficient loading of the defense-industrial complex. According to official data, in 2024 the Ukrainian defense was loaded by a maximum of 40%. For the most part, because the credit system does not work. The level of lending Real The economy in us (and we are a state that is fighting) is the lowest in Europe. There is such an indicator – the amount of loans to GDP. We have up to 15%, and in the Czech Republic and Poland-70-88%. That is, the government, the Parliament and the National Bank do not have a comprehensive approach to form the effective conditions of lending to the defense. This must be solved urgently.
The third problem. It is important to understand that drones, ammunition, cartridges are the transportation in the war. Such weapons should be made by industrial and serial methods. We need conveyor production. Yes, we have some positive changes in the release of artillery shells, mines, cartridges and drones. But we still do not have industrial-innovative programs that could form appropriate defense orders. After all, mass production provides for at least two to three years in advance. This is a very serious challenge. Because we understand what a shortage of ammunition is on the front.
It is necessary to move to industrial and serial production of weapons and special equipment as possible on the basis of targeted programs. This work continues and went faster. But we are still behind, we need to accelerate even more. Especially in the conditions of geopolitical risks with the receipt of assistance from the Allies. Unfortunately, we see a trend to reduce such assistance and should increase the production of our own weapons as much as possible.
The fourth call – adaptation of Ukrainian defense to NATO Technical Regulations, as a whole to international standards. This is a huge amount of work. Unfortunately, this system has not yet been formed. We are working on it now. Because the share of weapons, special equipment and ammunition made according to NATO standards, in the Armed Forces of Ukraine reaches 60%. We should be able to serve this weapon, repair it, and create the conditions for the production of a new one – according to international standards and regulations. This requires specific target programs.
About discussions around weapons exports
The presence of Ukrainian defense in foreign markets is another important issue. Our manufacturers have had good positions abroad, but since the beginning of a full -scale war there is a ban on export. It was a logical decision – the Armed Forces of Ukraine in priority. But during the war, especially in the private sector, capacities are formed, which are much exceeding the solvent demand in the domestic market.
We are now insisting to gradually open up opportunities for our businesses and defense companies to form export policies. Of course, the Armed Forces remain in priority. But when there is a surplus of production, we must do everything to be present in foreign markets, there is a earnings that would strengthen our OPC and defense. This issue is now beginning to discuss. But again there is a factor of time.
We believe that this is done very sluggish, haphazardly and can interfere with our OPC. Especially if after the announcement, the truce will reduce the volume of defense orders. However, our enterprises will not be ready to export their products to foreign markets.
Further export ban can lead to a forced relaxation of these enterprises abroad. And there are such examples. We have several leading drone producers already relocated abroad, because there is demand and markets. Export opening delay can also lead manufacturers to stop or bankruptcy. Therefore, a little time.
Within the framework of the USPP, the anti -crisis headquarters of the stability of the economy in martial law, we have already held some meetings on this issue with representatives of government structures and Ukroboronprom. We insist that such decisions are made much faster. To accelerate this process (I will open some information), we have signed a systematic cooperation agreement with Ukroboronprom, created a joint working group.
We are now preparing the first meeting, which will be one of the main issues of export policy. This should be addressed dynamically, systematically, taking into account the needs of Ukraine’s defense capability. But this is a very relevant topic. I hope that we will accelerate the resolution of this issue as much as possible.
Export policy should be an integral part of the development of the defense-industrial complex, including the forecast of further development of the defense of the defense industry, in particular in the post-war period. This also applies to solving the problem of skilled personnel. For Mobilization and reservation are a complex process of finding a balance between defense and economy needs. This requires powerful training programs for specialists, including qualified working professions. And especially – designers, engineers.
About the business climate and the mood of entrepreneurs
The business climate problems should be made constantly covered as a consequence of a full-scale war. The following should be clearly distributed. There is a war, risks, security guarantees, there is a cynical mean enemy that we have to fight. And we will do it next. But there are questions that I call, the laws of development, the laws of the business climate. They act and should be performed, regardless of the name of the state.
To begin with, Ukraine is an official candidate for joining the European Union. Since June 2024, we have official negotiations. And we must meet the main requirements in the formation of a business climate, especially for private capital: the rule of law, transparent competition, protection of the rights of investor, owner, effective antitrust policy. It’s all that makes the business climate favorable. After all, private capital goes only to where there is stability, predictability, favorable results of investment.
You need to work on business conditions because they are seriously broken. I will not give examples of the quality of our judicial branch, transparent competition, numerous inspections, power pressure, lock of tax invoices. Or about raising taxes in retroactive number. What beats the investor who has a financial plan and is dramatically changed by the conditions of activity. In short, we are undergoing a tough discussion with Parliament, Government and Tax on this.
I am convinced that the following principle must be followed: if you need to increase the state budget revenues, then you should first create favorable conditions for business. Do not try to decide everything only through fiscal or power pressure. Because a priori gives a negative result. We have seen it more than once. Therefore, now, from the point of view of business and business climate, it is very fundamental that there is a constant dialogue between lawmakers, fiscal structures, regulatory, power. We constantly insist on this.
One of the areas of activity of the anti-crisis headquarters just implies that any changes should occur on the basis of constant dialogue, communication.
As an example – Ukrzaliznytsia with its tariffs. I will remind, in June 2022, when Ukrainian business was in a critical condition: destroyed transport and logistics directions, a lot of problems. At that time, without calculations, Ukrzaliznytsia increased tariffs by 70%. They caused a merciless blow, especially exporters.
Now they want to repeat – raise rail tariffs by 37%. It is good that we have blocked this process in reasonably. And it is in relation to There are many questions. For example, there is a proposal to raise military levy or additionally tax entrepreneurs of individuals, as is often done. We ask: “What is the technical and economic justification? How will it affect the business, its competitiveness? ”.
There are no calculations, there are only calls to press on buttons. And then we record, for example, in recent months, a sharp decline in the number of entrepreneurs-physical entities, or an increase in the share of business that is being rebuilt abroad. In Poland, for 2024, Ukrainian business became the leader in the number of real estate operations and the opening of new companies. Who wins from this? We lose great potential because the rules of the game for business in Ukraine are very inefficient and unprofessional.
I always insisted and insist that the authorities, before changing the conditions for business and investors, should carry out deep technical and economic calculations, analytics and a forecast of consequences. If the prognosis is negative, it is better not to touch.
First, we need to work to reduce corruption, customs order, creation of conditions of access to loans (we have a credit system almost frozen). It is necessary to create conditions for supporting national business, as the whole world does. And only then return to tax rise. Until this potential resource is exhausted, do not touch or press on the business, as the result will be the opposite. This level of state responsibility should be.
At the Anti -Creer Staff, we have formed the following position: as our fighters at the front at the cost of their lives and health protect every meter of Ukrainian land, so we are obliged to fight for every workplace. Because there will be nothing without resources: neither victory over the enemy nor life activity in the rear. This principle should be at the heart of tax changes, in business and investors. And an official who does not understand this has neither moral nor professional right to stay in his position. Such an atmosphere should be in Ukraine. This is the essence of a mobilized economy.
Here are the following official data. According to the results of 2024, the official unemployment rate in Ukraine was about 15%. And the level of workload is 40%. According to official data, the enemy, the unemployment rate-2.5% (for them the historical minimum), and the military-industrial complex was loaded around the clock-24×7. This is in the conditions of war on depletion of resources. That is, we see how inefficiently we use our own potential.
About the dialogue of power with civil society
In the first stage of a full -scale Russian invasion, our authorities made a strategic mistake when she closed the borders. It was unacceptable. And this is my principled position. I think it was an example of unprecedented distrust of their own citizens.
Since February 2022 I have been in Ukraine. He witnessed when at the beginning of a full-scale war, tens of thousands of our boys returned from abroad, leaving a cozy Europe. They went to the front to defend their state. There were queues near the military enlistment offices.
Recently, I have exacerbated this topic because I see negative changes. Representatives of the shopping center, for example, catch people on the streets. I ask myself and many: what has changed in our mentality and patriotism over these three years? When the attitude of citizens to the holy duty to defend their state changes so sharply.
Even full -time psychologists of the same General Staff agree that the problem is very serious. Some of the citizens of Ukraine cease to believe that he lives and protects a just state, and some no longer believe in it. The problem of a fair state is very sharp and on the front. It should be decided because it is not minor. And it can only be done through a decent attitude towards your own citizens, honest dialogue with them.
Of course, during martial law, some information must be closed. But in general, in terms of the real state of affairs, the step -by -step solution to these problems and serious responsibility of everyone for the result – such a dialogue, unfortunately, in our information space.
This approach should be changed. It is necessary to explain to people what is happening, what are intentions, strategies, objective assessments and trends. For citizens in a period when the issue of restarting the system is acute, and there is a need to restart it, may be critically thinking voters. Only then will they be able to make their choice consciously and responsibly.
For the most part, this process depends on the level of freedom of speech, access to information, transparent competition of different political areas, ideologies, programs and so on. From this point of view in Ukraine it is necessary to make a lot. And this will affect not only the current state of affairs, but also the results of the upcoming elections.
Frankly, based on our own experience, we do not have time for strategic mistakes, in terms of government efficiency. This is what should be in work today without unnecessary politicization, dirty competition and fuss up around positions. We must all understand that we need to form a transparent, democratic system of preparation for the decisive stages of the will of our people.
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