ISW: The pace of Russian promotion in Ukraine is steadily declining since November 2024

According to the Institute of War Study (ISW), the pace of Russian offensive in Ukraine is steadily declining. In March 2025, the Russian forces moved only 143 square kilometers, which is the lowest in the last five months.

Source: Isw

Details: According to the British Ministry of Defense, the pace of promotion of Russian troops is steadily declining on a monthly basis, starting in November 2024. In November, Russian troops seized about 730 km², then in December – 393 km², in January 2025 – 326 km², in February – 195 km², and in March – only 143 km².

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Similar tendencies also capture ISW based on geolocation videos and satellite data. According to their estimates, the Russian advancement in November 2024 was 627 km², in December – 569 km², in January – 427 km², in February – 354 km², and in March – 203 km².

Literally: “The UK Ministry of Defense probably uses a different methodology or source to evaluate Russian promotion in Ukraine, but the UK’s report is consistent with ISW data, which indicate a decrease in monthly Russian promotion from November 2024 to March 2025.

In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have held local counterattacks in the Pokrovsky and Toretsky directions, restoring lost positions in these areas and facilitating the slowdown in Russian advancement in Ukraine.

Details: The slowdown of the occupation, according to ISW, is explained in particular by successful operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In March, Ukrainian troops held local counterattacks in the Pokrovsky and Toretsky directions, restoring lost positions in these areas and thus contributing to the slowdown in Russian advancement in Ukraine.

Key conclusions ISW for April 6:

• The pace of Russian promotion in Ukraine is steadily declining since November 2024 – partly due to the successful Ukrainian counter -offensive in the east of the country.
• On the night of April 5 to 6, Russian troops carried out the largest series of missile and unmanned blows in Ukraine for almost a month.
• Ukrainian officials emphasized that Russia is using its naval ships in the Black Sea to task rocket strikes in the territory of Ukraine, while inhibiting the introduction of a moratorium on military operations in the region, jointly offered by Ukraine and the United States.
• The Kremlin tries to represent Ukraine as a party that constantly violates the proposed temporary ceasefire on the facilities of energy infrastructure without providing any evidence. This contrasts sharply with Russian reports about the successful strikes of the Ukrainian military at Russian energy infrastructure, which took place before the ceasefire proposal.
• The Ukrainian forces advanced in the Borova area, while Russian troops advanced in the Kursk and Sumy regions, as well as near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Kurakhov.