Putin is unlikely to give up his ambitions on Ukraine in case of ceasefire – ISW

According to analysts of the Institute of War (ISW), even in the event of ceasefire in Ukraine, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin is unlikely to give up his ambitions against Ukraine.

Source: Isw

Details: US Presidential Advisor Mike Voltz said March 16 that Ukraine would receive indefinite security guarantees in exchange for indefinite territorial concessions.

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The Voltz also stated that the United States considers the “reality of the situation on the ground” in diplomatic negotiations, discussing the termination of the war in Ukraine.

Literally From the report: “It is unclear what Voltz meant under the” reality of the situation on the ground. ”

Details: At the same time, according to analysts, the recognition of Voltz that Ukraine will receive indefinite security guarantees is a key aspect of achieving the stated goal of US President Donald Trump to ensure prolonged peace in Ukraine, but the termination of fighting on unprotected lines would limit the efficiency of security guarantees.

Experts say that the current front line does not provide the strategic depth required by Ukraine to reliable protection against renewal of Russian aggression.

Literally From the report: “Russian troops are on the opposite bank of the Dnieper from Kherson, about 25 kilometers from Zaporozhye and 30 kilometers from Kharkiv.

Russian troops on the Dnieper could use a truce to prepare for an extremely difficult task of the unobstructed forcing of the river, which would significantly increase the likelihood of success in this operation.

The stop of a well -prepared large mechanized offensive in the cold is an extremely rare phenomenon in the war, which means that the restoration of Russian offensive is likely to be almost instantly threatened by both Kharkiv and Zaporozhye, and key cities of the Donetsk Fortress Belt.

Details: Experts also indicate that Russia builds a large highway and railway aimed at connecting large cities in occupied Ukraine and Russia, which will strengthen the control of the Russian Federation over occupied Ukraine and the ability of Russia to transport and supply Russian forces operating in Ukraine in the event of a future Russian offensive in the south.

Literally From the report: “The US and Europe will probably have to provide military assistance to Ukraine faster, in much greater volume and with a greater price, the closer the end lines of the ceasefire to the current front line.

Ukraine will probably need an even larger army with greater opportunities to play a crucial role in restraining and, if necessary, the defeat of the future aggression along the current front line (both within Ukraine and along the international border with Russia) with a length of more than 2100 kilometers. ”

Details: Observance of ceasefire along the current front line will also require the attraction of a large number of Western forces. Assistance to Ukraine in the restoration of strategically important territories, as Trump has stated, could significantly reduce the cost and complexity of ensuring the future peace.

The ceasefire in more protected positions would also put Russian troops in a more disadvantage for the restoration of offensive operations, which would make the future Russian aggression less likely.

However, Russian officials retain their maximalist territorial claims against all occupied and large part of uncope.

The Kremlin’s high -ranking officials, including Russian ruler Vladimir Putin, consistently require Ukraine to give the whole territory of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions, including those areas that have not yet been occupied by Russian troops, and have confirmed these requirements over the last weeks.

Literally From the report: “The Kremlin’s permanent statements are demanding that Ukraine give in to the unocal in Ukrainian territories that the Kremlin and Putin remain committed to these territorial goals, despite the continuing negotiations.”

Details: In addition, Putin has repeatedly urged Ukraine to give up the goals of joining NATO or any block of security and reject future foreign military assistance proposals, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently stated that Russia would reject the future deployment into the war.

Given the requirements of the Kremlin, it is noted that Putin will give up his ambitions on Ukraine even after ceasefire.

Key conclusions ISW for March 16:

• On March 16, Waltz stated that Ukraine would receive indefinite security guarantees in exchange for indefinite territorial concessions.
• The current front lines do not provide the strategic depth that Ukraine will need to reliable protection against new Russian aggression.
• However, Russian officials retain their maximalist territorial claims against all occupied and significant parts of uncope.
• Russian officials did not give public signs that they are ready to make concessions about their territorial or security requirements for Ukraine.
• Russia continues to use diplomatic relations with the United States to normalize its military demands.
• The United Kingdom convened the virtual summit of the coalition on March 15 to confirm Ukraine’s support and discuss peace plans.
• Ukrainian troops advanced near Borova, and the Russian troops in the Sumy region and near the Great Novosilka.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to position itself as solving problems with the Russian military.