ISW has evaluated the possible consequences of suspension of US military assistance for the front line in Ukraine

This is stated in the new report of the Institute of War Study (Isw).

Ukraine will continue to fight the weapons that it has now and which European partners will provide it, as well as with the weapon that it produces on its own.

The report states that the pause in assisting US Presidential Administration Donald Trump will have a negative impact on Ukraine’s ability to defend and conduct offensive operations at the current rate. However, according to ISW, this will not lead to the complete collapse of the front in the coming months.

Analysts suggest that the army of Russia’s aggressor country is likely to use a shortage of Ukrainian equipment, as it did during the preliminary suspension of US support in early 2024.

The ISW reminded that then the troops of the Russian Federation significantly accelerated the pace of operations in the direction of Avdiivka-Pokrovsk to use a shortage of Ukrainian deliveries.

Currently, Russian invaders are carrying out active offensive actions in Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions. In addition, they have intensified their efforts in the West of the Zaporizhzhya region, and continue attempts to force the Dnieper River in the Kherson region.

“Russian troops are likely to try to use a pause in providing assistance from the United States to achieve further success in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine,” the report reads.

The ISW reminded that the United States provided artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, towing howls, Patriot air defense batteries, as well as long -range missiles, many of which can only supply the United States.

Western officials estimated that Ukraine will be able to support the current rate of military operations by about June 2025, if the United States continues to provide assistance provided by the contracts under the Expature Administration Joe Biden, in pre -planned terms.

Analysts have noted that Ukraine rests with US Patriot air defense systems to protect against rocket strikes of the Russian Federation in the rear territories of the country. The shortage and, after all, the lack of missiles for Patriot will probably have serious consequences for the safety of critically important, industrial and civil infrastructure of Ukraine.

ISW adds that other allies of Ukraine do not have a similar system capable of protecting against Russian attacks, especially those that include ballistic missiles.

“Kiev will have to make difficult decisions about what settlements are priority in terms of air defense. If he has completely over the missiles for Patriot, then the Ukrainian cities will become open to Russian ballistic blows, ”the report was added.

Trump suspended US assistance to Ukraine: what is known

On the night of March 4, Kyiv time, US media, citing a statement from the White House Representative, reported that US President Donald Trump ordered all military assistance to Ukraine.

According to Bloomberg, suspension applies to all US military equipment that is not yet in Ukraine. This includes:

• weapons transported by planes and ships,
• equipment in transit zones in Poland,
• the technique prepared for sending.

Reuters said that the movement of US military cargos that went to Ukraine stopped around 03:30 on March 4, Kyiv time.

The Wall Street Journal wrote that all Trump advisers agreed to suspend the assistance of Ukraine, and the White House did not voice clear conditions.

CNN, citing several officials, reported that Trump and his assistants wanted to receive from Vladimir Zelensky confession of his guilt in the conflict in the oval office on February 28.

According to ABC News, about 90% of weapons allocated to Ukraine under PDA packets have already been delivered to official Kiev. The stable stream of arms from the United States will still be received at least over the next few years thanks to contracts signed with private US companies for the supply of new weapons.