“The other day, the news appeared in the domestic information space that the Cabinet is planning to pay “millions of hryvnias” to Ukrainian refugees if they decide to return home. This information was quickly denied – but the idea itself is at least curiosity. UA.News appealed to economic experts to ask their opinion about it. Economist Yuri Gavrilechko believes that there is nothing to discuss here. And the idea”, – WRITE ON: ua.news
The other day, the news appeared in the domestic information space that the Cabinet is planning to pay “millions of hryvnias” to Ukrainian refugees if they decide to return home. This information was quickly denied – but the idea itself is at least curiosity.
UA.News appealed to economic experts to ask their opinion about it.
Economist Yuri Gavrilechko believes that there is nothing to discuss here. And the expert evaluates the idea very negatively.
“We regularly have messages whose fantasticity is not even in doubt by media or consumers of information. It’s very sorry, but it is our reality. The statement … The alleged preparation of the Government Program for payment of one million hryvnias to those who will return from abroad to Ukraine after the war, spread very quickly and responded quite promptly … No, not the government, but the center of counteraction to the NSDC, which is not legal at all. Accordingly, there is nothing to discuss, because we are dealing with a classic version of a multilateral hippe on the next “sphere of horse in vacuum”.
As for the assumption itself, it is simply meaningless, because there are 6-8 million Ukrainians who left from here during the war. If everyone pays a million hryvnias, then it will require 6-8 trillion hryvnias! These are 3-4 state budgets of Ukraine! There is no money and will not be on such a program. And if they have a miracle, then the efficiency of their use through distribution is only negative, and the consequences can have a solid discord and stratification of society, ”Yuri Gavrilechko summarized.
The Candidate of Economic Sciences with 10 years of experience in the NBU Vadim Orphan also does not see in the potential introduction of such a program of economic expediency. In his opinion, it is about populism, not supported by real calculations.
“I do not see the economic expediency in this. First, there is no money for it, it is pure populism. Secondly, let’s investigate the socio-economic scale of the problem. Now, according to Ukrainian sociologists on November-2024, there are 5.2 million Ukrainians abroad. Of these, 3.7 million left the Western border to the EU countries. And in the aggressor countries (Russian and Belarus) there are 1.3 million citizens. Everyone forgets about those who are in aggressors. How to return them? How to communicate with them? How will they affect the economy? And these are the same citizens of Ukraine, they remain them, ”the expert says.
The orphan says that there are now four clusters of migrants. They plan to return home less than half.
“Somewhere 28% do not tear with Ukraine, most of them will return. There are still about 25% of migrant workers. Some left before the war. They have economic incentives to stay and build a career in another country. Further classic refugees, 22% are women and children. They adapt and live in a new environment, they are more likely to settle abroad. And another 26% are people from the war zone. This part is more inclined to return home. This is the sociology. Less than half plan to return. People want to return only if there is safety, work and accessible housing. Safety and work in Ukraine – without comments. To buy an apartment is also almost unrealistic in the current conditions, ”the economist explains.
The orphan believes that if they created a special program that would provide funds for the purchase of housing for those who need it, it would be another matter. But politics is just so “distributing money” to nothing.
“A million hryvnias will not win here and will not be an advantage. An effective incentive for return is a complete change in the social environment. There must be trust in the state, there should be an organization of life in society. Here, if the state prove the real concern and changes in the state government that there are common sense, then people will start returning. It is my opinion, ”Vadim summarized.
Earlier, President Zelensky stated that during the first year of the war, Ukrainians had taken $ 35 billion abroad.
