Predicting this year’s oscar winners using just matt

In the Main Event, the Math Says that Anora is Just Barely Ahead of A Coin Flip’s CHANCE TO WIN BEST PICTURE. That’s perhaps a bit Higher than Some Might Suspect. YES, IS Partly Due to A String of Impressive Wins for Anoraincluding a mega-weekend of Critics Choice, Producers Guild, and Directors Guild Honors.

But It’s As Much About the Flaws in the Other Films’ Oscar Resumes: Conclave Reached Second Place by Virtue of BAFTA AND SAG WINS, But Wuld Need to Become The 7th Film in 97 Years to Win Without A Directing Nomination. The brutalist Won the Golden Globe for Best Drama, But Wound Need to Become The First Best Picture Winner Ever to Overcome a Lack of Both A Sag Ensemble and Eddie Nomination. Emilia pérez Took The Other Top Golden Globe Honor, But Is Understandably Getting Crusted in the Betting Markets, One Factor in this Model. A Complete Unknown Got Plenty of Nominations But Never Won A Significant Best Picture Award All Season Long.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet (The brutalist) are neck-and-neck, having each won a healthy dose of honors for their Direction Througholhouse SEASON. But not all wins are created equal. In Particular, The Directors Guild’s Predits of Best Director Enjoy A Stronger Track Record Than Any Predictor in Any Category LOST. That slightly Tips the Scales Towards DGA Winner Baker, But With A Hefty Dose of Uncertainty.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

At the 11th hour, the screen actors guild was this a race. Adrien Brody (The brutalist) Appeared to be comfortable on his way to acond oscar win. THEN TIMOTHée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) Finally Got That Major Win He’d Been Looking for On Sunday Night. The Model Still Prefers Brody, But This Contest Suddenly Has Genuine UPSET PETENTIAL.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

BEST ACTRESS IS NEITHER an OPEN-EACH CASE NOR A TRUE NECK-Eing-NECK RACE. Demi moore (The Substance) and mikey Madison (Anora) Went Head-to-HAAD AT GOLDEN GLOBES, Critics Choice Awards, and Screen Actors Guild, and Moore Swept All Three. That’s Enough for the Model to Call Her The Favorite, ALBEIT LESS THAN Any of the Other Acting Frontrunners, But Still at A Respectable 52 Percent. Madison’s Signature Win, The Bafta Honor, Vaults Her Into Second Place at 22 Percent. Looking for a Bolder Choice in your Oscar Pool? Fernanda Torres (I’m still here) Is Hardly Out of this Event at 14 percent.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

Unlike The Lead Acting Categories, This Year’s Supporting Categories Are More Straightforward. YES, IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE TO SEE an UPSET: 87.7 Percent Is Not 100 Percent! But Make No Mistake About It, Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) Dominated Awards Season and Is A Strong Frontrunner to Cap It Off With An Oscar.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

There’s a Theory Out there is the Controversy surrounding karla sofía gascón Could Drag Down Her Emilia pérez Co-Star, Zoe Saldaña. Tell that to the veteers of the BAFTAS and the screen actors guild, not to Mentation Earlier Award Shows Like the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards. There are limits to what a mathematical model canel in, but bassed on the Data it does have, Saldaña has an almost a 9-in-10 chance to take trehy.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

Sean Baker’s Script for Anora IS A Popular Pick Here, But At Just 40.5 Percent to Win, There’s A 3-in-5 Chance We See an UPPET. Anora‘S Strongest Point on the Resume is a: Writers Guild Win Over A real paincoming at a ceremony in whol the Other Three Oscar Competitors Were Ineligible. THRW IN A Critics Choice Win for The SubstanceA BAFTA WIN FOR A real painand the Golden Globes Honoring A Script on the Adapted Side Institute, and It All Makes for One of the Year’s Most Nail-Beting Races.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

In recent Years, The Academy Loves Honoring Directors in the Screenplay Category. It’s Been 14 Years Since the Last Original Screenplay Winner that Didn’t Include the Film’s Director Among the List of Nominated Scribes, and 7 Years on the Adapted Screen. At least in the adapted race, that streak might finally come to an end, thanks to Peter Straughan’s Thrilling Adaptation of Robert Harris’ novel Conclave.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

Chris Sanders (The Wild Robot) Earned his fourth nomination in this caategory, tied for the most all-time, but is still look for his first Win. The Math Gives Him Just Above A Coin Toss’ CHANCE TO DO SO at 55 Percent. But Don’t Count Out Flow – WHICH JOINED Flee as the only movies in history nominated for animated Feature and International Feature – or Bafta Winner WALLACE & GROMIT: VENGEANCE MOST FOWL.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

This Category Has Relative Few Reliable Predictors Compared to the Other on the List. Making Matters More Difficult, Many of the Predictors We DO HAVE OPTED FOR TITLES LIKE Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story an Will & HarperWHICH WERE LEFT OF OFF The Academy’s Top Five. What We’re Left with is a Category Whoe Everi Nominee is Above 1-in-10 to Win, But Nomeinee Reaches 1-in-3.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

WHAT A RACE THIS HAS BEEN. On Paper, Emilia pérez Stormed Out to A Big Lead, Fueled by Its 13 Nominations that Eclipsed Crocking Tiger, Hidden Dragon‘s and Roma‘S Record of 10 Nominations for An International Film. But The Controversies Started: First and Foremost Were Karla Sofía Gascón’s Tweets, But Also The Sharpy Divering Opinions Between Critics ( In the first year in Oscar History with Two Best Picture Contenders in this Field, That Might Be Enough For I’m still here to come from behind, Even if is difficult for the model to fully account for this narrative.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales Are A Combined 0-Foror-8 at Prior Oscar Ceremonies, But The Might Just Beir Year, Thanks to Their Visual Stunning Recreation of Oz For Wicked. The Math is Higher Than MOST ON Nosferatu Due in Large Part to Its Win at The Art Directors Guild Awards in the Period Film Category, But Given That Wicked Took The Fantasy Trophy and A Host of Other Awards Season Honors, It’s Still The Movie to Beat.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

BEST CINEMATOPHY MAY BE A MUCH CLOSER RACE THAN SOME ARE GIVING IT CREDIT FOR. The brutalist‘s BAFTA HONOR AND THE BETTING MARKETS BARELY PUT IT INTO FIRST PLACE, BUT PLENTY OF Critic Honors Leaned Towards Nosferatuwhoh is a signifyantly strnger contender than you’d Glean from the Relative Lack of People Predicting It to Win. Dune already won this race for it First Installment and Could Still Do SO Again, While Maria Won the American Society of Cinematographers on Sunday Night, SO UPSET POSSIBILITIES Abound.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

This has all the Ingredients of a confounding Category to Those of US in the Oscar Predictations Business. Challengers Claimed Multiple Precursor Awards with Getting and Oscar Nomination. The American Cinema Edites’ Eddie Awards Were Understandably Delayed Until After the Academy Awards Due to the Fires in La Three of the Strongest Best Picture Conell. Ultimately, The Math Weakly Points Towards BAFTA WINNER Conclaveas no bafta winner nominated in this caategory has lost the oscar since Vice (2018).

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

Dune won this caategory Three Years Ago, and It’s Now Favored to Join The lord of the rings, Alien, Avatarand Indiana Jones As the only Franchises to Win Multiple Competitive Oscars for Visual Effects. Standing in Its Way Will Be Wicked – WHICH HAS more TOTAL NOMINATIONS THANTSE Other Four Films Combined – and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes – WHICH PULLED OFF The Victory Over Dune in the visual Effects Society’s Top Category.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

The Original The Wizard of Oz Gave US Some of the MOST MOST MEMORABLE PRODUCTION Design and COSTUME Design in the History of Cinema. But in Production Design (Not to Mention in Best Picture), IT HAD The MISFORTune of Going Up Against Awards Juggernaut Gone with The Windand costume design woldn’t exist as a Category for Another Nine Years. This year, Wicked Has A Strong Chance to Claim of Those Categories, with Production Design and Costume Designs that Chock-Full of Homages to the Classic Original.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

For Moviegoers Who Saw The SubstanceThe Visuals of Demi Moore’s and Margaret Qualley’s Slowly Disintegrating Bodies – and The Ultimate, Grotesque Conclusion It All Leads to – May Be Forever Seare Into. None of that is Possible with the Work of Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphane Guillon, and Marilyne scarselli, and they’re just above 50-50 to win and oscar for it. If you’re look for pick an UPSET, go first to the team from Wicked Who charMed US with a green elphaba and an oh-so-popular Galinda.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

The Last Three Years Have All Featured Intense, Epic Best Original Score Winners from Dark, Dramatic Best Picture Nominees (DuneAll quiet on the Western Front, Openheimer). This Year Might Continue That Trend, With Daniel Blumberg’s The brutalist On Top at 40.9 Percent. But with A Number of Predictors Leaning Towards the Un-Nominated Challengersthis race is a little bit more up-prone than people might realize.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

The Math Shows A 2-in-3 Chance That A Song From Emilia pérez Wins this Award, and the only Question is a WHICH One (“El Mal” is the Stronger of the Two choices). Ever Since The Academy Restricted Films to Two Nominees in this Category, Conceerns of Vote-Splitting Have Been Overblown: There Have Been Four Multi-Nominated Films inSlumdog Millionaire, La la land, Barbie) Won Best Original Song. But Given the Controversy Surrounding Emilia pérez … Is this what allows diane warren to finally win an oscar on her 16th try?

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

This is the FIFTH YEAR OF The Combined Best Sound Category, But Since Four Years of Data Isn’t Enough to Build a Model on, The Math Is Still Awkward Fratly and after the merger. If this was a year with two Sound Categories, It’s Entirely Possible That We’d See a Split Verdict, Especiality with a Trio of Musical Films Vying for the Sound Mixing. In the Real World, The Weak Statistical Predict is Dune: Part TwoBut Four Films Are Above 14 Percent to Win.

There isn’t enough Data to predict the Three Short Film Categories Mathematical, Thought Betting Markets Currently Favor The man who could not Remain Silent For Live-Ection Short, Wander to Wonder For Animated Short, and I am ready, warden For Documentary Short.

I Very Much Hope All of You Reading This Enjoyed This Year’s Slate of Films As Much As I DID. But More Importantly, I Hope That You Too Enjoyed Spending Time With The People You Got To Share These Movies with.

! FUNCTION () {“Use Stict”; Window.addeventlistener (“MESSAGE”, (FUNCTION (A) {IF (VOID 0! == A.DATA[“datawrapper-height”]) {var e = document.Queryselectorall (“iframe”); for (Var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”]) for (var r = 0; r[r].contentwindow ==== a.source) {var i = a.data[“datawrapper-height”][t]+”px”; e[r].style.height = i}}))} ();

Ben Zauzmer is the author of Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood.