Asteroid can fall to Earth in December 2032: The probability of collision is over 1%

In the event of a collision, an object of 40 to 100 meters may cause local destruction.

Passes UNN With reference to Science Alert.

The world space agencies closely monitor the asteroid that goes to the ground. Studies have taken into account the likelihood of 1.3%that the celestial body could fall on our planet over the next eight years.

The probability of collision is 1 to 83 – notes the publication.

The sizes and trajectory of asteroid movement

The 2024 YR4 asteroid was discovered on December 27, 2024 by one of the telescopes that are included in the Atlas observation network (this is a project that is an autonomously scanning the sky on a continuous basis).

Astronomas estimates, the diameter of the asteroid is approximately 60 meters, although it can range from 40 to 100 meters, like an object that caused a Tungu explosion in 1908.

YR4 is about 43 million kilometers from Earth and moves away from our planet.

Now it is especially difficult to predict the path of asteroid 2024 YR4, as it has an elongated (eccentric) orbit around the sun, and is currently moving almost in a straight line from Earth. Therefore, the area of ​​uncertainty is very large.

Potential influence

If the risk of collision with the asteroid is left above 1 percent, the group will provide advice from the United Nations and consider our options, which will probably involve the removal or destruction of the asteroid using a spacecraft, such as the NASA DART mission.

Recall

Scientists have confirmed that the asteroid, which destroyed dinosaurs 66 million years ago, was not the only one. The second, smaller asteroid, crashed into the sea off the coast of West Africa, causing a large-scale tsunami and leaving a 9-kilometer crater.

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