“Economic instability, inflation and imbalances force investors to seek new strategies. Big players like Warren Buffett and Jeff Bezos are redefining approaches, opening up new opportunities in energy, technology and cryptocurrencies. The founder of the investment company Blackshield Capital AG Maksym Koretskyi and her partner Ilya Kyslytskyi tell what investment trends to focus on and what to expect in 2025 The “Vilna” Forum is back […]”, — write: businessua.com.ua
Economic instability, inflation and imbalances force investors to seek new strategies. Big players like Warren Buffett and Jeff Bezos are rethinking approaches, opening up new opportunities in energy, technology and cryptocurrencies. The founder of the investment company Blackshield Capital AG Maksym Koretskyi and his partner Ilya Kislytskyi tell what investment trends to focus on and what to expect in 2025
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The year 2025 began with the uncertainty that had accumulated over the previous years. Absence recessionary The “reset” that traditionally restores economic balance continues to exacerbate the overheating of global economies. Monetary stimulus aimed at supporting markets had a short-term effect, but at the same time exacerbated imbalances and inflationary risks.
Over the last five years, $18 trillion was poured into the world economy, but it did not solve the fundamental problems.
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Central banks, including the Federal Reserve System (Fed), began to ease monetary policy. However, in conditions of high inflation risks and slowing growth, the effectiveness of these measures remains in question. In such a situation, investors and insiders revise their strategies to minimize risks and adapt to new conditions.
Insiders and their signalsThe actions of major market players become an important reference point for private investors.
American billionaire Warren Buffett increased the share of funds in the Berkshire Hathaway fund to 30%, which became a historical maximum. The move is reminiscent of its strategy before the global financial crisis of 2008, when the share of cash was 25%. Such behavior indicates preparation for possible economic shocks.
One of the richest people in the world and the founder of Amazon, Jeff Bezos, and other corporate insiders have been actively selling shares since November 2024. These actions indicate their cautious view of the stock market’s prospects.
Sellers are focusing on risks associated with inflation, slowing economic growth, and the possibility of lower estimates of market levels.
S&P 500 Index remains close to its historical highs, but multidirectional factors – from high inflation to changes in world trade – make it vulnerable.
Increased market volatility requires investors to be flexible and ready for adjustments.
Inflation as a key challengeInflation remains the main threat to the global economy in 2025. Despite the Fed’s announcement of stabilization, the main factors contributing to price growth persist. Lower interest rates, increased government spending, and protectionist policies increase inflationary risks.
Protectionism aimed at stimulating domestic production in the US has historically led to higher commodity prices.
For example, the introduction of tariffs on household appliances in 2018 caused a short-term jump in prices. Today, such measures once again put pressure on consumers’ incomes and their purchasing power.
The dynamics of commodity prices remains unstable. Cocoa and coffee were up 47% in 2024, while oil and agricultural products were under pressure. This imbalance deepens uncertainty, making inflation forecasts difficult.
For businesses, inflation reduces margins, especially in industries that depend on imported supplies. In the context of rising costs, companies face increasing prices for raw materials, which increases the pressure on profitability.
Investors, in turn, are forced to look for assets capable of protecting capital from depreciation, such as real estate and commodities.
The role of China in the world economyChina continues to play an important role in the global economy, although its domestic problems are slowing the pace of recovery. In 2024 index A50 remained 31% below its 2021 highs, indicating weakness in the local stock market.
The credit impulse, which could stimulate growth, has not yet produced a tangible result. The manufacturing and construction sectors are facing internal challenges, and the decline in investment activity is limiting opportunities for growth.
Despite this, China continues to lead in the development of green technologies. The production of solar panels, the development of nuclear energy and the growth of the production of electric vehicles give the country a strategic advantage in the long term. However, these achievements require significant subsidies, which increases the pressure on the budget.
For investors, China is both a risk and an opportunity. The green energy and technological innovation sectors hold promise for growth, but require careful assessment of risks and potential.
Oil sector: new approaches to investmentThe oil sector in 2025 continues to be under pressure from global factors. The USA reached record levels of oil production, this supports a high volume of supply on the market. OPEC inventories are close to cyclical highs, limiting the scope for price growth.
In response to these challenges, oil companies such as Exxon and Chevron are changing their strategies. They focus on optimizing assets and increasing efficiency to maintain sustainability in a low price environment.
The US continues to promote domestic oil production by shortening permitting times and encouraging drilling. These measures are aimed at achieving energy independence, but their success is limited by infrastructural and technological factors.
For investors, the oil sector remains a source of both risks and opportunities. Investments in infrastructure and modernization of mining capacities may be more promising than investments in traditional energy companies.
Cryptocurrencies: risks and opportunitiesThe cryptocurrency market in 2025 continues to grow, despite high volatility. Bitcoin, which crossed the $100,000 mark, remains a symbol of the digital revolution. The strengthening of institutional interest is confirmed by record purchases through ETFs and other initiatives.
However, the concentration of capital in the market raises questions. Over 92% of Bitcoin is controlled by less than 2% of addresses, making the market vulnerable to manipulation. This is reminiscent of the situation with rare earth metals, where the control of a small group of participants determined the dynamics of supply.
Investors should take into account the specifics of the cryptocurrency market. High volatility and dependence on regulatory decisions require caution and a long-term approach.
The year 2025 will be challenging, but at the same time it will open up new opportunities.
Inflation, market volatility and changes in the global economy require flexibility and vigilance. Investors should carefully analyze trends and consider macroeconomic factors in order to benefit from the rapid changes in the world.
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