“Yesterday, January 20, 2025, Donald Trump became the president of the USA for the second time. He found himself in the center of attention of the world community not only because of this, but also because of his statements regarding plans to end the war in Ukraine. The Republican’s rhetoric, aimed at a quick settlement of the conflict and an end to hostilities, raised both hopes and fears among experts, politicians and the public.”, — write on: ua.news
Yesterday, January 20 in 2025, Donald Trump became president of the United States for the second time. He found himself in the center of attention of the world community not only because of this, but also through their statements regarding plans the end of the war in Ukraine. Rhistorian republicanaimed at a quick settlement of the conflict and the end of hostilitiescalled both hopes and fears among experts, politicians and the public. Especially, indeed, this applies to Ukraine as a state on the territory of which bloodshed continues.
In the citythat material we will look at the possible scenarios for the end of the war that the Trump administration can propose, as well as analyze their potential consequences for Ukraine, Russia and the world order as a whole. What are the models of peaceful settlement and which of these is the most likely? Political columnist UA.News Nikita Trachuk discussed the issue together with experts.
Trump and his approach to international conflicts
Donald Trump is known for his unconventional approach to international politics. During his first term as president (2017-2021), he repeatedly stressed that the US should not play the role of “world policeman” and that the country should focus on its own interests. His negotiations with North Korea, the decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran (JCPOA) and active support for the Israeli-Arab normalization agreements (the so-called “Abraham Accords”) indicate a pragmatic and sometimes frankly unpredictable style of conducting foreign policy.
An important achievement of Trump even before his second presidency is the establishment of a truce between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. And although it is not yet known how long this “fragile peace” will last, and the peace drafts themselves were being prepared by the Biden administration, the outrageous Republican has already written the cease-fire and the exchange of hostages in Gaza in the list of his achievements. And it cannot be said that his participation and role is completely absent here.
As for Ukraine, here Trump has repeatedly expressed the need to find a quick solution to the conflict. In his 2024 campaign speeches, he said war “takes too many resources and lives” and that the US should broker peace talks. However, his statements that Ukraine and Russia “need to find common ground” and “get along,” that he “understands Putin,” etc., have raised concerns among Ukraine’s allies, who fear that Trump may make concessions to Moscow in order to quickly end the war.
What can be peaceful models? In fact, there are not so many of them.
Scenario 1: “shvisible peace» through direct negotiations
One of the most likely scenarios that Trump can propose is the organization of a direct dialogue between Ukraine and Russia with the participation of the United States as a mediator. Trump has repeatedly emphasized that he considers himself a master negotiator, capable of “making deals.” His team has already begun work on a plan that calls for a cessation of hostilities in exchange for certain territorial and political concessions.
According to many experts and representatives of the new administration in the US, such a scenario may include:
- Freezing the front line at existing positions.
- Introduction of peacekeeping contingents (discussed as an idea).
- Removal of part of the sanctions from Russia in exchange for the cessation of hostilities and/or the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine.
However, this scenario raises serious concerns in Ukraine. Many Ukrainian politicians and experts believe that any concessions to Russia will lead to a loss of sovereignty and create a dangerous precedent for future aggressions. Actually, this idea is dominant in the ideological discourse and political course of Kyiv. In addition, such negotiations could undermine the credibility of the US as an ally, especially among the countries of Eastern Europe.
Scenario 2: “withfrozen conflict» while maintaining the status quo
Another quite possible scenario that may be proposed by the Trump administration is the formalization of a “frozen conflict”. This approach involves the cessation of active hostilities without a final settlement of territorial and political issues. That is, in fact, a state of “neither peace nor war” – a truce. In practice, this can mean:
- Creation of a buffer zone between Ukrainian and Russian troops.
- Introduction of a UN peacekeeping mission or other international organizations.
- Maintaining part of the sanctions against Russia until it fulfills certain conditions.
Such a scenario may generally be acceptable for Russia, as it will allow it to maintain its influence on the occupied territories, as well as avoid complete isolation on the international stage. For Ukraine, this can be a temporary solution that will allow to restore the economy and infrastructure, but does not guarantee long-term peace.
Scenario 3: there areescalation due to support of Ukraine
Although Trump is known for his pragmatic approach and emphasized peaceful intentions, there is a possibility that he may decide to increase his support for Ukraine in order to speed up a victory over Russia or at least an exit to an equal dialogue. This scenario involves:
- Supply of modern weapons, including fighter jets, long-range missiles and air defense systems.
- Increasing financial assistance for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
- Involvement of NATO in a more active role in the region.
This approach is possible if Trump fails to “get along” with Putin. Then he can sharply strengthen Ukraine, escalate, in order to scare the Kremlin and force it to negotiate.
This scenario could lead to a quick end to the war, but at the same time increases the risk of a major escalation, including the possibility of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. In addition, it will require significant political will on the part of the US and its allies, which may be difficult to achieve in the context of internal political divisions within the States themselves and radical differences from the rhetoric of Donald Trump himself.
Position Russian Federation and Sthere
Russia, for its part, is unlikely to agree to any conditions that do not include recognition of its interests in the region. Putin has repeatedly stated it is clear that Moscow is ready for negotiations, but only on its ultimate terms. This includes recognition of the annexation of Crimea and Russian sovereignty over four Ukrainian regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson) within their administrative borders. If Trump proposes a scenario that does not take these requirements into account, Russia may refuse to participate in the negotiations or even increase its military presence in the region.
Conclusions
Summing up, it is worth noting that the return of Donald Trump to the post of US president opens a new page in the history of the war in Ukraine. His approach to ending hostilities is likely to be based on pragmatic considerations, but could cause serious controversy among US allies and partners, not to mention displeasure in Kyiv.
Regardless of the chosen scenario, any decision will have long-term consequences for our country, as well as for the European region and the world order in general. Ukraine, in turn, will have to balance between the desire for peace and the protection of its national interests in the difficult conditions of fast-paced and whimsical modern international politics.
Nikita Trachuk