“Regardless of the legal outcome, even a partial US withdrawal could damage the alliance.β, β write: www.unian.ua
Regardless of the legal outcome, even a partial US withdrawal could damage the alliance.
The expert named the consequences of the probable withdrawal of the USA from NATO / UNIAN collage, photo Wikipedia, photo REUTERSPresident-elect Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from NATO, who will take office tomorrow, is likely to lead to legal battles, writes political scientist and defense expert Michael Peck in an article for Business Insider.The debate over a possible U.S. withdrawal from NATO under Trump’s presidency highlights the complex interplay between the branches of the U.S. government and the legal uncertainty surrounding the president’s foreign policy authority. While Trump has privately expressed the possibility of such a move, legislative and judicial hurdles, as well as potential implications for global security, cast doubt on his ability to implement the decision.
Legal uncertaintyCongress passed Section 1250A in 2020, which prohibits the president from unilaterally withdrawing the US from NATO without the approval of Congress or two-thirds of the Senate. This provision underscores the desire of lawmakers to preserve the role of the United States in the alliance, especially in the face of growing threats.
At the same time, the US Constitution does not clearly regulate the procedure for withdrawing from international treaties, which creates a legal gray area. Precedents, including Youngstown Steel (1952), suggest that courts may review executive claims based on acts of Congress. In this case, if Congress has expressed a clear desire to remain in NATO, it may make it difficult to withdraw at the initiative of the president.
However, the Trump administration relied on another precedent β the withdrawal of the Jimmy Carter administration from the mutual defense treaty with Taiwan. The Supreme Court then declined to intervene, finding the issue to be political rather than legal. A similar approach can be applied to NATO.
Consequences of the US withdrawal from NATOThe withdrawal of the United States from NATO may have serious geopolitical consequences, in particular:
- Weakening of collective defense. NATO, created to protect Europe from Soviet aggression, is largely dependent on American military power. A reduced US role could undermine confidence in the alliance.
- The growing influence of Russia. The absence of American leadership in NATO may provide additional opportunities for the Kremlin to strengthen its influence in Europe.
- Disorganization of the alliance. Even without an official US withdrawal, Trump could minimize the country’s participation in exercises or reduce the role of American officers in NATO structures, which would undermine its functionality.
Trump’s Justice Department said in 2020 that withdrawing from the treaty is an exclusive presidential power that cannot be limited by Congress. Such an argument is based on a broad interpretation of executive powers in foreign policy.
However, this approach is not unambiguous. As Karen Sokol of the Congressional Research Service points out, courts may reject this claim, given that the Constitution provides for a joint role between the president and the Senate in ratifying treaties.
Regardless of the legal outcome, even a partial US withdrawal could damage the alliance. Even a reduction in US participation in NATO could prompt other members to question the appropriateness of their collective defense contributions.
Trump and NATOEarlier, UNIAN reported that Donald Trump spoke about the withdrawal of the United States from NATO. The mass media are already reporting that fears of such a scenario have arisen in Europe. They are worried that Trump will withdraw the USA from NATO and destroy the Alliance. However, there are also opinions that Trump is simply bluffing, seeking to force Europeans to invest more in their own defense.
At the same time, the US president cannot make such a decision alone. Also, if Trump wins and wants to officially withdraw US participation in NATO, he will have to wait for midterm elections to the Senate and Congress.
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