Russian security forces reject peace talks and demand an intensification of the war in Ukraine – ISW

High-ranking Russian security forces and the military are in favor of an escalation of hostilities in Ukraine, rejecting the possibility of negotiations. This is reported in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). UNN.

Details

ISW analysts note that the Russian security forces consider it necessary to intensify military actions in Ukraine, rather than seek a solution to the war through negotiations.

the Russians admit that their troops are not making significant territorial gains commensurate with the losses in manpower and equipment. Despite this, the Russian military command continues to suffer significant personnel losses in exchange for tactical, but not operational, gains.

In December 2024, the average daily Russian troop advance slowed to about nine square kilometers after three months of territorial gains and significant personnel losses in September, October and November. At the same time, the Russian military command may be less inclined than Vladimir Putin to tolerate such high casualties if the pace of the advance continues to slow

Despite this, Russian security services and military officials are not ready to end the war because of these losses. Instead, they are urging Putin to step up the military effort, proposing partial calls to the reserve, presumably to fill the battlefield with manpower and equipment.

Key findings:

• Western partners confirmed their support for Ukraine and commitment to the development of its defense-industrial complex during the meeting of the Contact Group on the Defense of Ukraine at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 9. They also announced new military aid packages.
• Russian elites and senior security officials are reportedly increasingly disillusioned with the actions of Russia’s ruler, Vladimir Putin, in waging a half-measures war, and are concerned about the length of the “conflict.” High-ranking security officials believe that Russia should intensify military actions in Ukraine instead of finding ways to peace negotiations.
• However, this assessment is flawed, since Russia’s main problem in the war is the inability to regain maneuverability on the battlefield, not a lack of manpower. This is a key factor holding back Russia’s advance.
• According to a report by Meduza, the Russian security forces, like Putin himself, are currently not interested in a peaceful settlement of the conflict.
• a Russian opposition publication reported that a torture center for Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians was set up in the pretrial detention center in Taganrog (Voronezh region).
• The UN condemned the increase in the number of executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russia.
• On January 9, the government of Armenia approved the draft law that starts the process of the country’s accession to the EU.
• On the front, Russian troops advanced near Borova, Pokrovsk and in the Kursk region, while Ukrainian troops gained success near Suja.
• Russian officials continue to emphasize the Kremlin’s intention to further militarize government and society in the long term.

We will remind

Russian troops began using drones with fiber optic cables to counter Ukrainian electronic warfare equipment. Such drones are slower and less maneuverable, but effectively bypass electronic warfare systems.