“The share of housing that is built specifically to meet the requirements of the mortgage program has increased significantly. Will the trend continue in 2025?”, — write: epravda.com.ua
During 2024, thanks to the systematic reorientation of the YeOsel state program to the primary housing market, the share of loans issued in new buildings under construction increased 8 times: from 3% in January to 24% in December. Under favorable economic and military conditions in 2025, about 40% of all issued mortgage loans under the “eOsel” program may fall on the primary housing market. In my opinion, the positive “mortgage” results of 2025 were the result of several important changes in the state program, in particular: Expansion of the number of partner banks of the YeOsel program to 11 (at the beginning of the program, only 5 banks participated in it). Limiting the maximum age of housing to 3 years, with the exception of loans for internally displaced persons. Increase in program participants among developers: by the end of December 2024, 91 builders and 201 projects were accredited in the “eOselya” program. Even last year, we predicted a significant increase in the number of mortgage transactions on the primary market. And our predictions came true. At the end of December 2024, the share of the primary market in the structure of issued state mortgage loans under the YeOsel program was 24%. Advertisement: Read also: How to buy an apartment in a new building for the price of a car. Despite difficult economic circumstances, such as, for example, the acceleration of inflation, in 2024, the number of issued mortgages amounted to more than 8.5 thousand. for a total amount of more than UAH 14.6 billion, which is the best indicator for 2 years and 3 months of the state preferential mortgage. What will depend on the development of mortgages In 2025, the development of mortgages and the “eOsel” program in particular will depend on a number of important factors. Advertising: Among them: Economic factors. It is about the rate of GDP growth, achieving the state budget balance thanks to international financial assistance, the NBU’s strategy regarding the discount rate as the main safeguard against the devaluation of the hryvnia, the situation on the foreign exchange market, the level of purchasing power of citizens, etc. Funding of the “eOselya” program. I believe that the decision to recapitalize Ukrfinzhitla through the issuance of domestic state loan bonds in the amount of UAH 20 billion, adopted on the eve of 2025, became important. In my opinion, given the dynamics of 2024, these funds may be enough for the active development of state mortgages in 2025 with the possibility of issuing loans in the amount of up to 1 billion per month. Further improvement (liberalization) of the conditions of the program: in particular, the announced extension of its effect to farmers. Dynamics of housing construction. YeOseli’s gradual reorientation to the primary market assumes that the state mortgage will allow developers to gradually increase the pace of construction due to increased sales at the construction stage. Military factors: from overcoming the consequences of enemy missile and UAV attacks to the situation at the front. Geopolitical factors: the amount of financial and military-technical assistance to Ukraine, as well as the hypothetical possibility of ending the “hot” phase of the war. Currently, the basic factor for the development of mortgages is definitely the military factor, because a long war with difficult to predict consequences can slow down the country’s economy. At the same time, banks are quite optimistic, seeing mortgages as one of the strategic areas of their own development. That is why we expect that the positive dynamics of mortgage lending observed in 2024 will continue in 2025, at least. Forecasts Obviously, throughout 2025, the state program “eOsel” will remain the main mechanism for the development of mortgages. However, it is expected that the share of loans for the purchase of housing under commercial mortgage programs will increase significantly: from 3% in 2024 to 10% in 2025, including thanks to joint mortgage programs of banks and developers. It is possible that the increase in the share of commercial mortgages will also take place in the secondary market, the activation of which we felt already in November-December 2024 after the change in the conditions of the state program. “Veteran” mortgage programs should acquire active development, at a discount of 1-2 percentage points. ponds In extremely difficult wartime conditions, the mortgage in Ukraine rests precisely on the “shoulders” of “eOsela”. At the same time, combined banks in 2025 will purposefully seek effective ways to develop their own mortgage programs at the most acceptable interest rates. Of course, the banking sector hopes for favorable economic and military conditions, on which the future of Ukraine will depend.