“Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War indicate that the Russian invaders are using their superiority in numbers to advance to Toretsk. In addition, experts speculated how the Russians intend to use their successes in Toretsk.”, — write: www.pravda.com.ua
Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War indicate that the Russian invaders are using their superiority in numbers to advance to Toretsk. In addition, experts speculated how the Russians intend to use their successes in Toretsk.
Source: ISW
Details: Russian forces have recently advanced into Toretsk after several weeks of more rapid offensive operations and gains in the area.
The review recalls that the Russian military intensified offensive operations in the Toretsk direction in June 2024, probably with the aim of reducing the Ukrainian presence in the area and depriving Ukrainian forces of the opportunity to shell the rear Russian areas in the direction of Chasovoy Yar and Pokrovsk, which at that time were the main efforts of the Russians are concentrated.
Since June 2024, Russian troops have been slowly and gradually advancing towards Toretsk and nearby settlements, but in recent weeks they have intensified offensive operations and achieved tactical successes in the northern and northwestern parts of Toretsk.
Literally ISW: “Russian forces appear to be changing their assault tactics in Toretsk to suppress Ukrainian forces and facilitate tactical gains within the settlement.”
“They probably use their advantage in the number of personnel to intensify offensive actions and advance within Toretsk.”
Details: Analysts suggest that Russian forces likely intend to use their successes in Toretsk to advance further west of Toretsk and Shcherbynivka and along the T-05-16 Toretsk-Kostiantynivka road towards the southernmost point of the Ukrainian fortification belt at Kostiantynivka.
The invaders may intend to establish themselves in the north-west of Toretsk and in the center of Shcherbynivka (west of Toretsk) in order to advance along the T-05-16 route in the direction of Kostyantynivka through Nelipivka, Pleshchiivka, Ivanopil and the fields around these settlements, trying to create a threat to the southern edge of the Ukrainian fortification zone Kostyantynivka – Druzhkivka – Kramatorsk, which is the basis defense of Donetsk region.
Russian troops may also try to use the further advance north-west of Toretsk and south of Chasovoy Yar in the direction of Bila Hora and Oleksandr-Shultyny in order to destroy the Ukrainian “pocket” in this area and align the front line west and south-west of Kostyantynivka .
Literally ISW: “Such an advance would complicate Ukraine’s ability to counterattack in Russia’s near rear southeast of Chasvoy Yar, including in the direction of Klishchiivka, and would allow Russian forces to deploy additional artillery systems within range of Kostyantynivka and use FPV drones within range of the city.”
Details: Russian troops may also try to advance west and northwest of New York and Leonidivka in the direction of highways H-20 Donetsk – Kostiantynivka and H-32 Pokrovsk – Kostiantynivka, in order to squeeze Kostiantynivka from the south and create a more stable southern flank for the offensive on Kostiantynivka .
Experts note that Russian forces will likely be able to advance faster in the fields and small settlements north and west of Toretsk than they were able to achieve in their slow advance toward the city of Toretsk.
Russian army units in the area may try to repeat the short, tactically important mechanized attacks they conducted on the Kurakhiv and Vugledar directions in the fall of 2024, if they have a sufficient reserve of armored vehicles for this sector.
Literally ISW: “Russian forces may try to use tactical gains in and near Toretsk, as well as east of Pokrovsk, to eliminate Ukrainian fortifications southwest of Toretsk.
They may try to use gains within Toretsk and in the Toretsk-Scherbinivka-New York section, as well as recent Russian gains east of Pokrovsk, to eliminate the Ukrainian “pocket” between Vozdvizhenka (east of Pokrovsk) and Toretsk.
The Russian advance east of Pokrovsk and west of Toretsk may be part of an ongoing effort to gain advantages that allow the capture of any territory, regardless of its relative insignificance.”
Details: At the same time, according to experts, Russian troops are unlikely to pose a significant threat to Kostyantynivka, unless the Russian military command reinforces the existing grouping of troops in the area with troops from other frontline areas.
Literally ISW: “The Russian military command may continue to give priority to the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions, but reduce the priority of offensive operations in other parts of the front, such as the Kupyan or Boriv directions, in order to redeploy forces to the Toretsky direction.”
“At this time, ISW is not ready to provide a forecast on how the Russians will distribute efforts under Toretsk.”
ISW key findings for January 7:
- Russian troops advanced into Toretsk after several weeks of faster offensive operations and gaining new positions in the area.
- The occupiers likely intend to use their successes in Toretsk to advance west of Toretsk and Shcherbynivka and along the T-05-16 Toretsk-Kostyantynivka route towards the southernmost point of the Ukrainian fortification belt at Kostyantynivka.
- Russian troops may try to use tactical advantages in and near Toretsk, as well as east of Pokrovsk, to eliminate Ukrainian fortifications southwest of Toretsk.
- They are likely to try to break out of Toretsk’s urban encirclement and push into more open rural areas, similar to those where Russian forces have made significant gains elsewhere on the front in recent months.
- Russian forces are unlikely to pose a significant threat to Kostiantynivka unless the Russian military command reinforces the existing troop grouping in the area with troops from other areas of the front.
- The Ukrainian General Staff stated that on January 7, Ukrainian troops struck the command post of the Russian 810th Marine Brigade in Belya, Kursk Region of the Russian Federation.
- Ukrainian troops have recently advanced in the Kursk region, and Russian troops have advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk and in the Kursk region.
- The Kremlin continues to promote the “Time of Heroes” program, which aims to appoint veterans of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine to positions in local, regional and federal government.