“Any peace deal is likely to be fragile.”, — write: www.unian.ua
Any peace deal is likely to be fragile.
What will the war in Ukraine be like after Trump’s inauguration / UNIAN collage, screenshotsAs US President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his inauguration, which is scheduled for January 20, Kyiv and Moscow are trying to get the best positions ahead of the likely negotiations. The publication Business Insider predicted four options for the further development of events in Russia’s war against Ukraine after Trump’s return to the White House.Ceasefire Agreement and “Frozen Lines”
The possibility of a temporary cessation of hostilities was again on the agenda after Trump’s re-election. According to Chatham House Russia and Eurasia program researcher John Loff, Ukraine seems to be moving away from its “maximum position” of returning all occupied territories, while Kyiv wants “reliable security guarantees from the West.”
“Many analysts say any peace deal is likely to be fragile. Russia seized Crimea by force in 2014 before launching a full-scale invasion in 2022. Putin has also repeatedly called Ukraine’s independence a sham, and many observers worry that a pause of several years will allow Russia to train more troops and accumulate more weapons before a new attack,” the article says.
Mark Kanchian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes that any peace deal brokered by Trump is likely to involve some form of territorial concession:
“It’s hard to imagine it being sustainable. It’s easy to imagine another war in a couple of years.”
Protracted war
Another scenario is that Russia refuses to compromise and hostilities continue. Thus, military experts from the Institute for the Study of War have repeatedly claimed that Russian leaders believe that they are winning on the battlefield, and are currently unlikely to be ready for serious negotiations.
At the same time, a long war is likely to exhaust Russia’s military resources. Moscow is losing armored vehicles at a rate that may be unacceptable, and may need another round of mobilization to continue making up for troop losses.
Victory of Russia
Putin wanted a quick military victory when his troops launched a full-scale invasion. Almost three years later, that goal has been thwarted, but Moscow can still claim victory – which would likely mean occupying most of Ukraine and toppling Zelenskyi’s government.
According to Kanchian, in the worst-case scenario for Kyiv, the front lines of its armed forces will collapse due to a lack of resources or a change in international support. In such a case, Ukraine would likely be forced to cede large chunks of territory, and “everything east of the Dnieper” would potentially come under Russian control through either annexation or effective surveillance.
The victory of the Ukrainians and the retreat of the Russians
Ukrainians had hopes of winning the war after some notable early successes, such as the liberation of Kharkiv in 2022, according to Ukrainian journalist Svitlana Morenets. In her view, while Putin’s grip on power appears strong, the war has exposed some of the biggest fissures since he came to power, such as the armed uprising of Wagner’s mercenaries and protests against mobilization:
“But given Trump’s goal of a quick cessation of hostilities, Russia’s continued gains in the east, and the state of Kyiv, which has faced dwindling resources and declining morale, an outright Ukrainian victory seems unlikely for now.”
The war in Ukraine: what will happen nextMoscow and Kyiv no longer decide what peace will be like in Ukraine, because this is a world war. Politico writes about it. The publication believes that not only Ukraine, but also Russia have become too dependent on partners to independently decide how the war will end.
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a new statement about negotiations with Putin. According to him, now Ukraine is not in a position of weakness, but also not in a position of strength for negotiations.
You may also be interested in news:
- You should not relax: the Armed Forces answered how the negotiations with the Russian Federation will affect the battles at the front
- Putin’s victory will cost the USA seven times more than supporting Ukraine, – FA
- Zelenskyi’s position on the war has softened, he is ready for a compromise, the diplomat said