Russia does not plan to send significant reinforcements to support the Assad regime in Syria – ISW

Russia is evacuating its naval forces from its base in Syria’s Tartus, a sign that Russia has no intention of sending significant reinforcements to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in the near term, according to a report by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

It is indicated that satellite images from December 3 showed that Russia withdrew from the base three frigates, a submarine and two auxiliary vessels, that is, all the ships that Russia deployed in Tartus. However, Russia cannot redeploy these vessels to its Black Sea ports, as Turkey complies with the Montreux Convention, which prohibits Russian warships from passing through Turkish straits.

ISW suggests that Russia is likely to redeploy the ships to its bases in northwestern Russia and the Kaliningrad region.

Analysts note that they cannot independently confirm reports of the deployment of units of the “Africa Corps” in Syria, which the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence (GRU) of Ukraine reported the day before, but if the reports are true, they would mean that the Russian military command is avoiding the redeployment of regular Russian troops forces from its priority theater in Ukraine to Syria.

“Russia’s evacuation of Tartus and the reported deployment of Africa Corps forces in Syria indicate that Russia is concerned that Syrian opposition forces may advance south to Hama (about 80 kilometers northeast of Tartus) and threaten the Tartus base, but the Russian military command will not deploy significant reinforcements to Syria in the near future to prevent such an advance.” – summarized in ISW.

Read also: Foreign Ministry: Russia and Iran bear the main responsibility for the worsening of the situation in Syria

The day before, Reuters correspondents reported that in Syria, anti-government armed groups approached the large city of Hama, which remained under the control of the Syrian government since the civil war began in the country in 2011.

Over the past few days, Russian and Syrian aircraft have intensified strikes against opponents of the Assad regime, representatives of both sides said.

The offensive of the rebels in Syria began on November 27. On November 30, the Syrian military confirmed that the rebels had entered Aleppo.

In 2019, Russia, Turkey and Iran signed an agreement to freeze the conflict in Syria in their current positions. The conflict pitted the government of President Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia and Iran, against Syrian-Kurdish rebels backed by the United States, with Turkey providing aid to individual rebel groups. The US military still has some troops in Kurdish-held areas of Syria.

The fighting is taking place amid fears of a wider war in the Middle East.