Where did the Lancets go? The military observer explained what is well known at the front, but unknown in the rear, and promised: there will be more

The use of Lancet attack drones by the Russians at the front has significantly decreased. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military-political analyst of the Information Resistance group, told NV about this.

If earlier, even at the beginning of this year, on average, the enemy launched up to 10 units every day along the entire contact line, now it is about two or three “lancets” per day, the expert claims.

“Lancets work at a longer distance [ніж FPV-дрон]30−40 km, there were even modifications for 70 km, respectively, they need target designations, in the same way, by the way, as for a ballistic missile, – explains Kovalenko. — Therefore, when a ballistic missile flies by, there must be either Orlan, ZALA, or Supercam in the airspace before that. The destruction of these reconnaissance drones helps to reduce the threat of both ballistic missile strikes and long-range barrage munitions such as the Lancet,” the expert explains.

According to him, in some places it is possible to destroy not only reconnaissance drones, but even to intercept the Lancets themselves, which, by the way, are not cheap compared to FPV drones – and it is precisely them that the Ukrainian military has learned to use to hunt for the already mentioned Russian targets.

“The price of an FPV drone is about $500. Accordingly, their use [ланцетів] becomes more problematic, less efficient than before and generally becomes a financial burden [для ворога]. Again, to each element of impression, in one way or another, we find the key. And here such a key was the destruction of both reconnaissance drones and the Lancets themselves with the help of FPV drones. That is, a drone against a drone,” Kovalenko explains.

According to him, the corresponding solutions are already available in the Ukrainian military in many modifications, and are even beginning to become more and more mass-produced and used. “Therefore, I think this issue with Russian reconnaissance drones will be resolved in the near future. After all, each such drone costs much more, and it is produced more slowly than the average FPV drones, which are used to hunt for reconnaissance and strike drones,” says the analyst.

The enemy, in turn, tries to take certain measures in response — for example, to camouflage its reconnaissance UAVs, but such countermeasures are ineffective. “They repainted them for some time so that the drone would blend in with the surface of the earth from the air. They also began to use certain maneuvers from time to time with the reconnaissance BPLfA in order to deviate from the direction of the strike of the drone that is hunting it. Different variations are used, but as we can see, it does not help and is not a full-fledged element of countering our drones, which hunt them,” the expert explains.

Strikes by the Defense Forces of Ukraine against targets on the territory of the Russian Federation — warehouses, airfields, air bases and other objects — also play a role in reducing the use of barrage munitions by the Russians. “For example, there was an attack on the Kursk airfield in Halino [ракетами ATACMS]. In particular, Orion reconnaissance and attack drones, which are often used by the Kursk group of the Russian Federation against the defense forces of Ukraine, were placed on it. That’s why such blows have the appropriate effect,” Kovalenko adds.

On the question of the possibility of using FPV drones vs “Shahedov”, which the Russians are launching in Ukrainian cities, Kovalenko answers as follows: this is quite a realistic scenario, but there is a nuance. “The problem is that most Shaheds are launched at night, which makes it difficult to intercept them with standard FPV drones,” the analyst notes.

What’s more, the “shahed” flies at an altitude of 1.5-2 km, sometimes even less than a kilometer, while the reconnaissance drone is 4-6 km, the expert notes. “That is, it is even easier to catch up with the Shahed FPV drone than with a reconnaissance drone. And it’s easier with height. But, again, you have to work mainly at night, and it is quite difficult with an FPV drone, it is not adapted for this, so you have to find a way out here.”