“The expert believes that the situation on the foreign exchange market excludes the possibility of a collapse of the hryvnia.”, — write: www.unian.ua
The expert believes that the situation on the foreign exchange market excludes the possibility of a collapse of the hryvnia.
The banker believes that during the next week slight fluctuations in exchange rates are possible / UNIAN photoIn the last week of autumn, one should not expect that the situation on the foreign exchange market will undergo special exchange rate changes, because, as it has been observed for several months, the National Bank will be able to apply quite effective tactics this time to curb the impact of inflation on currency indicators.As Taras Lesovy, head of the treasury department of Globus Bank, told UNIAN, therefore, despite the information that inflation in the country will accelerate to 10% by the end of 2024, the situation on the foreign exchange market will be more comfortable.
“During the week, slight price fluctuations, both upward and downward, are possible, but they will not be abrupt. In other words, the market will live in soft conditions and under the careful supervision of the regulator, who in the case of unmotivated and chaotic growth in demand, will be able to quickly intervene and restore the balance between buyers and sellers,” the expert said.
According to his forecast, on the one hand, the exchange rate will gradually move towards UAH 42/USD, but these “movements” will not become excessive. The banker assumes that, compared to November 1 (the exchange rate was at 41.21 hryvnias/dollar), the official dollar rate on December 1 will be 41.5-41.6 hryvnias/dollar. That is, the potential growth of rates can be up to 1%.
“It is also worth emphasizing that due to the tax payment period, the supply of currency from exporters at the interbank may decrease. As a result, the role of the regulator at the interbank may increase somewhat in order to quell possible demand,” Lesovy noted.
On the other hand, on the cash market, we should expect a decrease in demand due to “natural conditions”: the season of all kinds of discounts and bonuses is ongoing, which objectively affects the increase in the number of sellers of currency (a part of citizens will spend their currency savings for necessary and desirable purchases for themselves and also for preparations for Christmas and New Year holidays).
According to the expert’s forecast, exchange rate fluctuation corridors in the range of 41.2-41.7 hryvnias/dollar are expected on the foreign exchange market from November 25 to December 1. and 43.5-45 UAH/euro (interbank) and 41.2-41.8 UAH/dollar. and 45-47.5 UAH/euro (on the cash market). Daily exchange rate changes at interbank can be up to 0.05-0.15 UAH, in banks – up to 0.1-0.2 UAH, in exchange offices – up to 0.3 UAH. Weekly rate deviations are expected within 1-1.5% of the initial Monday rate.
“Therefore, the situation on the market will be characterized by barely noticeable changes on the market, despite external inflationary circumstances. The market is under reliable “protection”, which excludes the possibility of a collapse of the hryvnia,” Lesovy summarized.
Exchange rates in Ukraine – the latest newsIn Kyiv exchange offices, the dollar exchange rate on November 21 is UAH 41.60/dollar, which is 5 kopecks more expensive than yesterday’s figure, and you can sell a dollar for UAH 41.60. The cash euro rate has not changed and is 44.15 UAH/euro, the selling rate is 44.00 UAH/euro.
The dollar exchange rate at “PrivatBank” on November 21 did not change and is UAH 41.60 per dollar. The euro exchange rate in the bank is also unchanged and is UAH 44.20 per euro.
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