“As the Central Bank predicts, next year the Russian economy may be on the verge of stagnation.”, — write: www.unian.ua
As the Central Bank predicts, next year the Russian economy may be on the verge of stagnation.
The war against Ukraine costs the Russian Federation dearly / collage UNIAN, photo UNIAN, photo ua.depositphotos.comThe head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, said that almost all available resources in the Russian economy are already used, but despite this, the country has a record low level of unemployment and a colossal shortage of personnel at enterprises.“We have never had such low unemployment. And there are few countries where it once fell so much,” said the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, quoted by The Moscow Times.
According to a survey by the Central Bank, 73% of enterprises are experiencing a shortage of personnel, and the level of capacity utilization at factories has already exceeded 80%, which is also a historical record.
“When the economy reaches the limits of its production capabilities, but demand continues to be stimulated, stagflation occurs,” Nabiullina warned.
The central bank is trying to avoid this scenario by raising the key rate.
“In other countries that went through stagflation, this is the result of unreasonably soft monetary policy, when it should be strengthened,” the official said.
According to Rosstat, the economy of the aggressor country continues to grow, although the pace is slowing as credit becomes more expensive, raw materials industries lose Western markets, and military-industrial complex plants reach their capacity limits. At the same time, in the third quarter, the GDP of the Russian Federation increased by 3.1% after the growth by 4.1% in the second quarter and by 5.4% in the first.
However, as predicted by the Central Bank, the Russian economy may be on the verge of stagnation already next year. Thus, the GDP of the Russian Federation will increase by only 0.5-1%, and the growth rates of investments and private consumption will generally be zero. The IMF has already announced the collapse of the Russian economy threefold – from 3.9% growth this year to 1.3% next year.
At the same time, next year Russia’s GDP will grow a third slower than in developed countries (1.8%), and three times slower than in developing countries (4.2%). The Russian economy will lag 3.5 times behind China (4.5% growth), and five times behind India (6.5%). By 2029, the situation will worsen even more.
Consequences of the war in Ukraine for RussiaA week ago, ISW warned that serious problems await Russia in the near future. According to analysts, the aggressor’s economy was not as stable as the Kremlin claims.
Business Insider predicts that the Russian economy can last another year and a half before it begins to weaken.
Bloomberg believes that the Russian economy, which is suffering from the huge costs of the war against Ukraine, could slow down sharply due to sanctions against key sectors.
The President of the Ukrainian Pilots’ Association Hennadiy Khazan stated that Russia has an economic reserve until the end of next year and it should be pressed.
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