A bad deal or a protracted war. How Kyiv is preparing for possible negotiations with Russia — BBC

“A bad deal or a protracted war. How Kyiv is preparing for possible negotiations with Russia — BBC November 19, 14:39 Share: The Ukrainian side is preparing for the fact that Trump will try to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table at the beginning of his term (Photo: Angelina Korba collage / BBC) Can they will negotiations between Ukraine and Russia on ending the war begin soon? Will Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin sit down at the same table? What can it be?”, — write on: ua.news

A bad deal or a protracted war. How Kyiv is preparing for possible negotiations with Russia — BBC

November 19, 2:39 p.m

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The topic of Ukraine’s negotiations with Russia has been on the agenda of both world and Ukrainian media for several weeks. Politicians and experts in various capitals are pondering over it.

The reason for this was the victory of Donald Trump in the elections in the USA – he promised to end the war very quickly if elected president.

Since that time, the mass media, with reference to sources, have not stopped publishing points of the alleged “Trump’s peace plan. But the lack of specifics from the mouth of the newly elected president himself leads many to believe that these proposals are only being developed by his team and no one knows for sure what they will contain.

The Ukrainian side is preparing for the fact that the new American president will try to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table at the beginning of his term. Therefore, Bankova cautiously assumes that the war may end next year.

Is the war really close to ending, what is Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s team preparing for, and what can Ukrainians expect?

The situation at the front and the mood of the people

The situation at the front for Ukraine is difficult — the Russians are advancing in different directions at the same time. This happens in parallel with the constant bombardment of cities by shaheeds and rockets. Ukrainians are exhausted by hostilities, sleepless nights and a feeling of fear before winter, which many have already baptized “the most difficult”.

In October alone, the Russian army was able to occupy 500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory — the most since March 2022. According to Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 27% of Ukrainian lands are under occupation.

The Russian army continues to advance in the Donbass, has become more active in the direction of Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia, is having “nightmares” with the Sumy and Kharkiv military bases, and is forming a large group of troops (probably together with the soldiers of the DPRK) in Kurshchyna, in order to knock out the Armed Forces of Ukraine from there, which entered there at the beginning of August.

The experts and military people we talked to agree that the Kremlin wants to seize more Ukrainian territory in order to have the most favorable position in the event of the start of armistice negotiations – at least to reach the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. As a maximum, capture one more Ukrainian regional center – most likely, Zaporizhzhia.

Time is not on the side of the Ukrainians, because there is a lack of people at the front, and those who fight continuously are tired. Surveys show that people understand the importance of mobilization, but it is accompanied by such a large stream of problems that the sense of justice is lost. Constant corruption scandals surrounding the officials who decide who to mobilize and who not, the force “busification”, a poorly established system of training new recruits and internal conflicts between the command and the military – all this strongly demotivated society to go to war.

But there is another reason.

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A survey conducted in Ukraine in August by the Public Interest Journalism Laboratory together with international experts showed that in the conditions of a protracted war, Ukrainians began to look more soberly at the situation. They took off “rose-colored glasses” and realized that “coffee in Crimea” will not be soon, and the borders of 1991 are not a prospect of today and far from tomorrow, it follows from the survey.

This, in turn, became the reason for growing support among the population for the idea of ​​starting negotiations with Russia. A poll published by the Razumkov Center in October showed that more and more people are in favor of starting peace talks. If one in five thought so a year ago, now – one in three. Another October study shows that Ukrainians’ faith in victory is also decreasing, although the majority still believe that Ukraine will defeat Russia.

Trump’s first decisions

Many in Ukraine (as well as in the world) was puzzled by the victory of Donald Trump in the US elections. First of all, because both he and the representatives of his team made unpleasant statements for Kyiv about the conditions for the end of the war. Sometimes they offered peace plans on unfavorable terms for Ukraine, then they threatened to stop financial support and the provision of weapons.

Unofficially, the Ukrainian government offices explained that the reason for such controversial statements was an overly electrified election campaign. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were close to each other and had to resort to different methods to win the votes of voters.

After the election and the victory of the Republican, the intrigue about how he is going to end the war in Ukraine only increased. Western publications publish probable options in advance “Trump’s plan”, draw possible scenarios of the development of events and even reported on his phone conversation with Vladimir Putin, which the Kremlin later denied and called fake. There is still no official information about when Trump’s first conversation with the head of the Kremlin will take place (or did it already take place?), was not.

Therefore, all assumptions about what the newly elected American president will offer to Zelensky and Putin remain only assumptions. Donald Trump has not yet presented his peace plan, and his first post-election statements about the war in Ukraine are limited to general phrases: “We will work very hard with Russia and Ukraine. This has to stop. Russia and Ukraine must stop.”

Experts suggest that at this point there are certain supporting ideas of the Trump team, and not a completely ready peace plan. And these ideas, one way or another, boil down to freezing the conflict.

“Freezing the war on the front line. Freezing the issue of membership in NATO. Freezing at least financial aid. This is a kind of all-encompassing freezing,” says the director of the center New Europe Alyona Hetmanchuk.

In its essence, she explains, such a vision is not very different from the one mostly prevailed in a democratic administration. But the democrats believed that it is the president of Ukraine, and not the USA, who should initiate any negotiations, and support for Ukraine should be, albeit limited, and as long-lasting as possible.

Information that was made public by the American Fox News the other day adds to the positive: the newly elected president will soon appoint a special representative for Ukraine. Who exactly is not officially named. This is not something new in Donald Trump’s approach. During his last term of office, he already appointed such a special representative — he was Kurt Volker. And this model fully justified itself.

“We need an influencer with constant access to Trump’s ear “Mr. Ukraine,” says Alyona Hetmanchuk. — The model with Kurt during the first presidency demonstrated its effectiveness, with all the understanding that the second Trump administration is not the first.

Representatives of the Ukrainian authorities are nervously waiting for some specifics regarding further cooperation from the newly elected American president and at the same time they admit that it will definitely not be easy.

At the same time, the Western press states that it will not be easy for Trump and the Kremlin. This became clear after the first announcements of personnel appointments. The publication Politico writes that the upcoming appointment of Florida congressman Michael Volz as national security adviser and Florida senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state is a positive signal for Ukraine.

Volz and Rubio favor an “America first” concept, but are tough on US policy toward China, Iran and Russia. The first even proposed to allow Ukraine to strike the Russian Federation with American long-range weapons, which the administration of Joe Biden did not support for a long time.

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Ukrainian experts advise not to rush to conclusions regarding personnel, since Trump will still have the key and final say in many issues, including the issue of the war in Ukraine.

“I would not yet draw conclusions about how Marco Rubio will act (future Secretary of State) or Michael Waltz (future Trump national security aide), on their past votes or statements. Their position has recently fluctuated with Trump,” says political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.

At the same time, he admits that some decisions of the newly elected American president are frankly surprising. For example, the candidacy of the Secretary of Defense – he will be the host of Fox News Pete Hegseth. But in any case, Fesenko is sure, one must be patient and wait, since all the current appointees have yet to pass “run-in” in the process of approving their candidacies by the Senate, and the most important thing is to pass an aptitude test “get along” with Trump himself.

High hopes for Biden

According to the BBC, the Ukrainian authorities are already actively working on establishing contacts with key people in Donald Trump’s team. Some sources claim that the head of the OP Andriy Yermak is going to the USA in the near future to hold talks with representatives of the newly elected president. Officially, the Office of the President does not comment on this information.

Along with this, Volodymyr Zelenskyi has high hopes for the last months of Joe Biden’s presidency. In recent weeks, intensive negotiations between the Ukrainian side and European and American partners regarding the granting of permission to Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with long-range weapons have been ongoing. And according to the Western press, Kyiv finally received this permission. At the same time, such information has not yet been made public officially in the White House.

This is the decision that is part of the Ukrainian president’s victory plan. He presented it in September in the USA and all this time he was waiting for a response from American partners.

We asked Zelenskyi’s office whether Kyiv really received permission to use long-range weapons deep into Russia and what the restrictions are, but Bankova refused to comment on this information.

Last week, the British press reported that Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron had redoubled their efforts to convince Joe Biden to authorize strikes against Russia before Trump became president.

According to our data, London was ready to make this decision in the summer, but was waiting for Washington’s consent.

Likewise, the Ukrainian authorities hope that it will be possible to invite Ukraine to NATO during the transition period of Biden. Although with this item, everything is much more complicated. On the eve of the American elections, Zelensky admitted that a lot depends on the United States, in particular, whether it will be active enough to convince skeptical countries in Europe. Among them are Germany, Hungary and Slovakia.

The Ukrainian president explained: an invitation is not yet membership, so there are no obstacles to making this decision during the war.

This decision is also important for Kyiv because, if negotiations with Russia begin, Putin will definitely raise the issue of Ukraine’s non-alignment. And the Ukrainian side wants to receive security guarantees and to strengthen its position as much as possible. Zelensky himself admitted in a recent interview with Ukrainian Radio that it is necessary to enter the negotiations with strengthened positions, which is lacking today.

“If we talk to Putin, and we are not strengthened in the conditions in which we are now, this is a losing status for Ukraine at the entrance. This is not about a just peace. Certainly, in a weak situation, there is nothing to do at these negotiations.”

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So if you analyze this situation, it looks like the victory plan was prepared mainly for the administration of Biden, who will still be the president of the United States until January 2025. That is why Zelensky called the deadline for the implementation of this document – until the end of the year, which is why there was such a rush with its development and presentation. Although several points, observers claim, were laid down for Trump as well. This is the replacement of part of the American troops in Europe with Ukrainian troops after the end of the war and the use of Ukraine’s natural resources. Negotiations on this are yet to come.

The main question today is whether Joe Biden will implement key points for Ukraine. In Kyiv, they expect that the current American government will try to give Ukraine as much as possible what it can give – both weapons and money. This, along with maintaining positions in Kurshchyna (if Russia does not return these lands by that time) and the permission to strike with long-range weapons deep into Russia will improve Ukraine’s position in possible future negotiations with Russia. And they may be just around the corner.

Is Putin being brought out of isolation?

Trump has so often promised to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table that it will be his “a fixed idea” already at the beginning of the term, experts are sure. The future Secretary of State Marco Rubio has already announced the “peace through strength” approach to ending the war. What exactly lies behind this wording – one can only guess.

Experts are sure: it is important for the Ukrainian side to explain to Trump and his team even before the inauguration that the agreement “at any cost” is not in the interests of not only Ukraine, but also the USA.

“A hastily forged agreement, without real security guarantees for Ukraine, without continuing at least military, if not financial, support means a high probability of a new war even during his stay in the White House. And this could be a war not only against Ukraine. Does he want to get even more war during his presidency or at the end of it? Hardly,” says Alyona Hetmanchuk.

A good option for Ukraine is the possible involvement of European countries, in addition to the USA, to the negotiation process. On November 15, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with Putin for the first time in two years. And although after this conversation, only general phrases sounded (Scholz condemned Russia’s aggression, and Putin said that Russia is always open to negotiations), but the very fact of this call indicates the intention to bring the Russian president out of isolation. Before that, the vast majority of European leaders and Joe Biden refused direct contacts because of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

The Ukrainian authorities condemned this call, at the same time understanding that it was a clear signal of the approach of negotiations.

“Olaf’s call is Pandora’s box in my opinion. Now there may be other conversations, other calls, Volodymyr Zelenskyi said in the evening of the same day. — This is exactly what Putin has wanted for a long time: it is extremely important for him to loosen his isolation. Isolation of Russia”. According to Zelenskyi, Putin’s goal is to “sit down, talk and not come to an agreement.”

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The current situation on the battlefield is so difficult for Ukraine that we hardly have to wait for the liberation of the occupied territories and the return to the borders of 1991 in the near future. Zelensky himself and Andriy Yermak, the main internationalist in his team, talked about these goals almost all three years of the war. The latter, by the way, in an interview with the Italian publication Corriere della Sera, published on November 14, said that in order to start negotiations, Russian troops must withdraw to their positions by February 24, 2022.

The thesis about the borders of 1991 sounds less and less from the mouths of representatives of the Ukrainian authorities. She also annoyed her partners in the West. Officially, Kyiv declares that it will not make any territorial concessions. Unofficially, the press has already written that if these negotiations begin, then Ukraine will prioritize not so much territory as security guarantees.

On the other hand, many people ask: what is the point of Russia starting negotiations when everything is going well at the front? Opinions are constantly heard in Kyiv that the real readiness of the Kremlin to come to an agreement is not visible. But for Putin, according to Volodymyr Zelenskyi, it is not the agreements that are important, but the very fact of the negotiations. This means that he was brought out of isolation, he was once again reckoned with.

“He (Putin – ed.) cannot travel, and to talk is to travel somewhere, which means that he needs to unblock it. This is the destruction of isolation,” the Ukrainian president believes.

On the other hand, they say in military circles, Russian society, like Ukrainian society, is tired of war. Ukrainian drones fly to Russian cities, oil refineries explode from Ukrainian strikes, Russian men die on Ukrainian lands.

Although the Russian economy has withstood Western sanctions and continues to grow, Russia needs a break to regain strength and build up resources again.

In addition, both Trump and Putin have repeatedly made it clear in public that they have a good relationship, which can also contribute to the beginning of a dialogue about a cease-fire. “I have a very good relationship, as you know, with President Putin, and I think we’re going to win and resolve this very quickly,” Trump said of Putin.

For his part, Putin called Trump “a courageous person”, his statements are those that “deserve attention”, and therefore he is ready to cooperate with the new American president.

No one knows exactly when the peace process can start and how long it will last, but one thing is clear for sure: if these negotiations do start, Ukraine may face unpleasant conditions. Volodymyr Zelensky, like Ukrainians, may have to prepare for a difficult choice — either to continue the struggle, losing people and exhausting the country with a protracted war, or to sign a bad agreement with Russia, preparing for the fact that at any moment Putin may break this agreement .

• “Sit and listen rhetoric does not work with us.” Zelenskyi about Trump and peace talks
• Scholz spoke with Putin for the first time in two years. Why is Zelensky unhappy?