“After Trump’s victory, the probability of reaching an agreement on a truce with the Russian Federation in the first quarter of 2025 exceeds 50%. This is the opinion of the founder and head of one of the leading Ukrainian investment companies, Dragon Capital, Tomas Fiala, Interfax-Ukraine reports. “I think that now after this election in the United States and the result that is, these first statements that we are seeing, there is a”, — write on: ua.news
After Trump’s victory, the probability of reaching an agreement on a truce with the Russian Federation in the first quarter of 2025 exceeds 50%.
This is the opinion of Tomasz Fiala, the founder and head of one of the leading Ukrainian investment companies, Dragon Capital, Interfax-Ukraine reports.
“I think right now with this US election and the outcome that it is, these initial statements that we’re seeing, there’s a better than 50% chance that there could be a ceasefire agreement in the first quarter.” , Fiala said at the annual general meeting of the European Business Association (EBA).
According to the investment banker, in this scenario, the intensity of the war will decrease significantly.
“But as we saw after 2015, after Minsk-2, some kind of provocations on the front, some conflict of lesser intensity continues. This will probably be the case, but the intensity may decrease significantly, the front may stabilize, there will be no such movements, the use of such heavy weapons and so many troops on both sides,” added the head of Dragon Capital.
He believes that, as after 2015, the ceasefire will allow businesses to operate and have more long-term predictability, as well as an opportunity to move forward with European integration.
Fiala noted that he is not so optimistic about the fact that Ukraine will join the EU already in 2030, although it is theoretically possible in the case of acceleration.
“As you saw from the report that the European Commission published about two weeks ago, we have progressed over the last year, but not at such a pace, at a slower pace than the pace at which we should progress in the next five years, so that in the 30th year to be in such a position that the only thing left for us is ratification,” explained the head of Dragon Capital.
However, the investment banker added, the very process of European integration significantly motivates investment growth.
EBA Executive Director Anna Derevyanko noted that today the business community expects a ceasefire in 2025.
At the same time, the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pishnyi, said that the NBU in its latest forecasts abandoned estimates of the possible duration of the war, in particular, due to the inaccuracy of the initial estimates and the prolongation of the war.
Earlier, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin told Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán that he was not interested in a ceasefire or a temporary ceasefire between Ukrainian and Russian troops.
The President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, had a telephone conversation with the elected leader of the United States, Donald Trump. The country’s leader said that the Republican should be taken seriously when he talks about ending the war in Ukraine.
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