“In an interview with the European Parliament, John Denton, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce, talked about the risks that the world economy will face under Trump’s presidency and the prospects of Ukrainian exports.”, — write: www.epravda.com.ua
In 2024 record the number of people was in the status of a voter – almost half of the world’s population elected a new government in 64 countries.
Among them are elections, the results of which are particularly important for Ukraine. And not only from the standpoint of who and how to cooperate in countering Russian aggression, but also what and under what conditions Ukrainian business will be able to export its goods.
At the beginning of November, attention was focused on the elections in the United States, according to the results of which Donald Trump will become the next president of the country in January 2025. The protectionist, who during his previous term in the White House introduced a series of tariffs and trade restrictions, promised on the campaign trail to do the same only for all goods imported into America.
One such change was a 25% duty on steel imports, in particular from Ukraine, introduced in 2018. Only since the beginning of the great war, the current administration of President Joe Biden canceled it for Ukrainian exporters.
Trump’s return to power currently means only the unknown, according to John Denton, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). He states that, although the next US president is not the biggest supporter of the World Trade Organization, it is too early for Ukraine to have pessimistic expectations.
Denton has been regularly visiting Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war, and in particular contributed to the unblocking of Black Sea ports for grain exports in 2022. During the visit to Kyiv, the EP talked with the ISS Secretary General about what Ukrainian business can expect from the EU and the US, what is lacking in Ukrainian trade diplomacy, and how to return containers to Ukrainian ports.
– Now we are on the way to European integrationso what do you think has changed and has it changed enough in recent years in Ukraine’s trade policy in the process of approaching European standards?
– I think that this work continues. You take Ukraine in the middle of a war and try to integrate it into a functioning European market with standards that work and are effective for developed economies. And the Ukrainian economy is not only in a state of war, but is also trying to overcome the gap with the economic indicators of the European market.
In political circles, there is an incredible dynamic in the understanding of this gap and real actions aimed at raising standards and bringing them in line with European ones.
Ukraine has a lot to offer the global world in technology and agribusiness. We are seeing growing interest in working with, for example, the International Chamber of Commerce to digitize a number of processes that facilitate cross-border trade.
We are currently working with the Ukrainian government on digitized eFITO phytosanitary certificates (a document confirming the safety of products of plant origin – EP) which are necessary for export to Europe.
– Can you give some examples of achievements in trade policy? And, perhaps, the gaps that are most important and on which Ukraine should focus.
– Trade is also about investment. Therefore, we are looking at the ongoing work in the field of investment policy, because economic growth requires investments, and not only state or donor ones.
You need to create an environment in which foreign private investors will want to invest. The challenge, of course, is the risk. Concerns about the rule of law, corruption and other such issues are also a challenge.
We see, especially in the investment sphere, that the Ukrainian government is taking many steps to address investors’ concerns in these matters. Transparency helps with that, and that part is actually where I see quite a bit of change over the last few years. We also notice an openness to rule of law issues.
One obstacle for foreign investors is concern about access to the legal system and its speed. Therefore, we proposed to involve the ICC Court of Arbitration as a full-fledged partner for the development of Ukrainian investments, offering access to our court of arbitration for foreign investors coming to Ukraine.
As for trade policy, we see that the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce understands the strategic importance of opening new markets, and the government also understands it now.
– Please tell us a little more about how this ICC arbitration court will work in Ukraine?
– Access to the ICC Court of Arbitration is provided on the basis of service contracts. It works like this: In the contract that the company enters into with the investor, there is a separate provision that the investor will have access to arbitration as a way to resolve the dispute. This is one of the things they will want to see in the deals.
It is interesting that in Argentinawhich is going through, as you could see, quite significant economic transformations, legislated access to arbitration as a key element for investing.
– You say that we have many promising foreign markets. What are these markets?
– I think that many markets are becoming available for Ukrainian business thanks to your competitive advantages. But you need to find out for yourself where there is the greatest interest and potential consumption.
Once we brought a delegation of Ukrainian business to Colombia to the largest gathering of businesses from Latin America, and gave them the opportunity not only to communicate, but also to speak. Then they discovered that the biggest problem was not the quality of what they were offering, but the fact that no one knew they were offering it.
Ukraine must become recognizable. And part of business is visibility, building relationships. You need to spend some time on this.
Obviously, agriculture is a very important sector. Ukraine is incredibly competitive in the agricultural sector, not only in goods, but also in the technologies that support it. Such technologies will be interesting not only in Latin America, but also in other developing countries, in particular, in Africa and some parts of Asia.
But lack of awareness complicates this issue. We are currently putting together another large delegation and have invited the Minister of Agricultural Policy to travel with us and speak at the largest African business gathering we are hosting in Nairobi and Kenya in April 2025. This is also a way of building opportunities here.
Both on the river and on the sea. Ukraine returns container transportation by ships. What does this mean for the economy?– We see that trade restrictions are returning. Donald Trump will soon become the president of the United States, and he is known for his penchant for protectionism and trade restrictions. What should we expect? How do you think this will affect Ukraine’s ability to export?
– In the national interest Ukraine’s goal is to maintain a strong multilateral trade system, because access to it will allow it to diversify its export channels and opportunities.
The risk right now is not some immediate and painful change on President-elect Trump’s first day in office. It lies in the uncertainty surrounding what will actually happen.
Certain things are known: that tariffs for China will be increased, he talked about increasing tariffs in other areas as well. In this case, you need to look at what exactly you are exporting, and whether these goods will be subject to such duties.
It’s really too early to say for sure. We can only say with certainty that there is uncertainty about what will happen.
We can look at the latest Trump administration. Yes, there has been a redirection of some value chains, but to a lesser extent than everyone expected. This time may be different. At the moment, the markets are positive, and there are actually positive changes in the background of the election of the Trump administration.
It is unlikely that the new Trump administration will “cheer” for the World Trade Organization, but this does not mean that they will not be interested in an effective and working multilateral trading system. The WTO is just a place where you can manage such a system.
As an ISS, we will be able to keep the multilateral trading system in working order. For example, by joining regional agreements, ensuring market access agreements. But a country like Ukraine must have a strong and functioning multilateral trade system.
– Regarding the European Union, do you expect us to face new trade restrictions in the future?
– I don’t know. We do not know the final configuration of the new European Commission because it is still the subject of many discussions and debates in the Parliament.
With the growth of trade comes new challenges. In some states, tensions are growing regarding agricultural products from Ukraine, and this should be considered. Here it is important to be transparent about the facts: what is the real impact of this product, what is its real cost. We want to make sure that when the EU looks at this issue, it is not just a reaction to local political problems.
There is a tendency to support a strong Ukraine. And, of course, a strong Ukraine needs a strong economy. If there are attempts to somehow complicate the functioning of the economy, then this is against their security interests.
This is an issue that needs to be agreed upon. Of course, this can only be agreed on the basis that it is in the interests of Europe itself to ensure the security of Ukraine, and for this a strong economy is needed, which will eventually be integrated into the European Union.
So why then put obstacles in the way of this? And this is what we ourselves want to discuss with the European Commission.
– Finally, regarding maritime trade. Last year we opened our own sea corridorbut regular container lines have not yet returned. Do you think this could change in the near future?
– A multilateral agreement can be one of the solutions to this issue. As you know, we were part of the initial Black Sea Agreement group, where we worked with the United Nations and Turkey. Now we are also working on reducing the cost of transporting goods across the Black Sea.
Maritime trade is hampered by cost, especially insurance, which makes it less attractive and limits volume growth. Obviously, certain problems are associated with damage to six vessels not so long ago
Therefore, we believe that the Black Sea Agreement could be a better path for development. Then a safe shipping line can be guaranteed, which is exactly what you need.