A route for Iranian weapons. Why the first strike of Ukrainian UAVs on the Caspian Sea is so important – an assessment by ISW and The War Zone

In their report, ISW experts recall that on November 6, the Ukrainian mass media, citing intelligence sources, reported that Ukrainian drones struck the naval base in Caspiansk, damaging Tatarstan and Dagestan Gepard-class frigates (project 11661) and possibly damaging several Buyan-class corvettes (project 21631).

Analysts add that satellite images from November 6 indicate a presence at the base:

• probably three Russian ships of the Buyan class
• probably two ships of the Buyan-M class,
• one Tarantula-class vessel,
• one ship of the Chepard class
• one ship of the Karakurt class.

All of them were present in the Caspian port on the day of the attack. However, the available images are not yet sufficient to accurately identify the damage to these ships or sea piers, ISW analysts point out. At the same time, geolocated footage published on November 6 confirms drone strikes near the infrastructure of the Caspian port.

For their part, the analysts of the portal The War Zone emphasize that although the data on the probable damage to at least one of the ships is contradictory, this attack “is significant in several respects.” They remind that this port is not only a shelter for the Russian Caspian Flotilla, several military units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, but is also located along the routes that Iran uses to deliver weapons to Russia.

“Iran uses the Caspian Sea and its ports to deliver missiles and other weapons to Russia in large part because that route was considered safe from Ukrainian attacks. In addition, this [перший удар України поКаспійську] marks the new [етап] targeting the facilities of the Russian Navy,” analysts of The War Zone note.

They remind that since June, Russia began to launch Kalibr cruise missiles from the Sea of ​​Azov instead of the Black Sea, as it became more dangerous to launch them from the western part of the Black Sea after repeated strikes by Ukrainian missiles, air and sea drones.

“Kaspiysk is located more than a thousand kilometers from the likely launch site, and the drone, which is an adapted light-engine aircraft, covered this distance without problems, and even in daylight! Hundreds of kilometers through Russian echeloned air defense, not a small-sized, small-sized object, but a light aircraft!” — The War Zone quotes a post by Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military columnist for the Information Resistance group.

“Yes, this is the first strike against the Russians in the Caspian Sea during the entire period of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which clearly hints – sailors, you will not be at ease either in the Black Sea or the Caspian!” – added Kovalenko.

For their part, commenting on these conclusions, The War Zone analysts also state “the failure of Russian air defenses to track the drones before they flew over the port,” and point out that even the leading pro-war Russian Telegram channels have taken notice.

“To call an effective anti-aircraft system at the base point of the naval base does not turn tongues,” admitted the pro-Kremlin pro-war public Dva Major in particular, stating that its effectiveness is allegedly hindered “bureaucracy and speed of decision-making” in the Russian army.

At the same time, The War Zone states that this strike on the Caspian Sea was just another new attack by Ukrainian UAVs on distant Russian targets. “Given the importance of the Caspian Sea for Moscow’s military efforts, they [таких ударів]there will probably be more,” emphasizes The War Zone.