“Is he or she? Three American analysts answer NV’s question about who will be the next US president and explain why November 5, 19:22 NV Premium Share: In less than a week, the whole world will know the name of the new US president (Photo: Reuters) Author: Anatoliy Maksymov Biden’s unpopularity, Trump’s advantage and Harris’ new energy – American political experts told NV about what America is living on the eve of the presidential elections”, — write on: ua.news
In less than a week, the whole world will know the name of the new US president (Photo: Reuters)
Biden’s unpopularity, Trump’s advantage and Harris’ new energy – American political experts told NV about what America is living on the eve of the presidential election.
There is not much left before the elections in the USA. Republicans and Democrats are trying to squeeze the last gains out of their own pre-election races, with more and more radical methods to bypass the competitor. But who will win? NV cites the opinions of professional American political analysts, which may seem unexpected to the residents of Ukraine.
Karl Kaltenthaler, director of the Center for Intelligence and Security Studies, professor of political science at the University of Akron:
“It is extremely difficult to predict who will win the next US presidential election. Most national polls taken that week show the candidates mostly neck-and-neck. As of October 30, 2024, Kamala Harris has a microscopic lead over Donald Trump: 48.2% to 47.2%. The difference is within the margin of error for all polls, so we don’t really know if the assumption [щоКамала лідирує] generally true. True, in the College of Electors [яка йобирає президента США, аненарод країни напряму] the current vice president is slightly ahead of her Republican challenger. Each must collect 170 votes to win, so the fate of the election will be decided by a few so-called “shaky” states.
Summarizing all of the above, it is safe to say that this is the most competitive race in modern US history. It is possible that the poll does not accurately convey the support of Trump among the people. This already happened in 2016 and 2020, because some Americans were uncomfortable admitting that they “for Trump.” If this happens a third time, we will be forced to admit the obvious: Trump’s advantage is not read from available sociological data, but exists in society.”
Miles Coleman, election analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics:
“My personal predictions change daily (sometimes, even hourly!). Even with low unemployment, US food prices remain high. Such visual indicators may make some voters in swing states nostalgic for Trump’s past term, when things were supposedly better and the pre-pandemic economy was confidently growing.
If he wins, then because of such a situation [умагазинах] and the continued Republican focus on immigration. But, unlike the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, Trump was no longer an outsider in this one. Because of this, I’m starting to see some overconfidence among his team. The problem is that the Republicans, as usual, talked a lot, but didn’t do that much.
As for Kamala Harris, although the figure of Joe Biden remains unpopular, this negativity does not extend to her. She doesn’t drag him along—at least not all of her.
My only firm prediction is that the 2024 race will be the industrial north’s moment of glory. Harris’ best path to the White House is through victories in all three home states: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
Ross Baker, professor emeritus of political science at Rutgers University, former senior adviser to several Democratic senators:
“I believe that Vice President Harris will win. There are many people who consider themselves Republicans, but they dislike Trump as a candidate. So they silently vote against him. I think if you add their share to the Democrats, in which Harris has breathed new energy, it will ensure her victory in the presidential race.”