“Specialists of the Institute for the Study of War indicate that the Russian offensive efforts near Vugledar and Pokrovsk are mutually reinforcing and are probably aimed at stretching Ukrainian forces on a wider front in the Donetsk region.”, — write: www.pravda.com.ua
Source: ISW
Literally: “Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Vugledar amid what appears to be an intensification of the offensive near the settlement, but the capture of Vugledar is unlikely to give Russian forces any particular operational advantage for further offensive operations in the western part of Donetsk region.”
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Details: Analysts note that geolocation video footage released on September 24 shows that Russian troops have advanced into eastern Vugledar as far as 12 Desantnikiv Street, confirming reports from Russian and Ukrainian sources that Russian troops broke into eastern Vugledar between September 23 and 24.
Russian forces are also trying to advance on the northeastern flank of Vugledar through Vodyane and the southwestern flank through Prechistivka, probably in an attempt to surround the Ukrainian group in Vugledar and force it to retreat.
Literally: “On September 23 and 24, Western mass media and Ukrainian military experts and journalists repeatedly warned that constant Russian attacks and advances on the flanks of Vugledar threaten to encircle the Ukrainian garrison within the settlement, which may force Ukrainian troops to leave this area, which has been an important Ukrainian stronghold”.
Details: According to experts, Russian troops can capture all of Vugledar, but how quickly and easily they will be able to do it will depend, in particular, on the decision-making by the Ukrainian side.
Literally: “If the Ukrainian command decides that the risk of encirclement of Vugledar by Russian troops or the cost of defending the settlement itself in the conditions of urban fighting is too great, the Ukrainian troops can retreat, which will allow Russian troops to capture Vugledar relatively quickly and without engaging in close combat.
However, if Ukrainian forces decide to defend Vugledar and can prevent Russian attempts to encircle it, they may retreat. It may be difficult for Russian troops to break through the settlement, which Ukrainian troops have fortified for more than two years.”
Details: Experts add: if the Russians do not take the settlement relatively quickly, the maneuver of Russian troops on the flanks of Vugledar may also be affected by the onset of autumn rains, which will make it much more difficult for the invaders to advance through the mostly rural area around Vugledar, as it will become swampy.
The review recalls that Russia launched at least two major offensive attempts to capture Vugledar in late 2022 and early 2023, both of which resulted in significant losses of Russian personnel and equipment, while allowing Ukrainian forces to continue to fortify the settlement and monitor how the Russian group plans and conducts offensive operations in this area.
Literally: “Potential capture of Vugledar by Russia is unlikely to radically change the course of offensive operations in the west of Donetsk region.
Vugledar is not a particularly important logistical hub – Russian troops already control most of the main roads leading to Vugledar (road T0509 Vugledar-Prechistivka, road C050524 Pavlivka-Vugledar, and T0524 Vugledar-Marinka) and probably already pose a real threat to route C051134 to Bogoyavlenka by close-range artillery fire, so the capture of the settlement will not give the Russian troops immediate access to the new road, nor will it cut off the Ukrainian troops from the road, which is of crucial importance for their logistical support.
The potential capture of Vugledar will also not necessarily provide Russian forces with an advantageous position from which they can launch further offensive operations elsewhere in western Donetsk region.”
Details: According to ISW’s preliminary assessment, Russian offensive efforts near Vugledar and Pokrovsk mutually reinforce each other and aim to stretch Ukrainian forces on a wider front in the Donetsk regionbut a hypothetical capture of Vugledar by the Russians would not necessarily be important enough from an operational point of view to stretch Ukrainian forces even further into the area.
ISW Key Findings for September 24:
- Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Vugledar amid what appears to be an increase in offensive activity near the town, but the capture of Vugledar is unlikely to give Russian forces any particular operational advantage for further offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast.
- Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian rear munitions depots demonstrate the extent to which Russian military logistics still use protected rear areas due to the Western ban on striking Ukraine deep into the Russian Federation.
- Russia continues to expand and use its bilateral relationship with the People’s Republic of China to support its military efforts in Ukraine.
- Russia’s Defense Ministry has failed to appease Russia’s ultra-nationalist blogger community by downplaying the Russian military’s command for insisting on the misuse of technical experts in frontal infantry-led attacks in eastern Ukraine.
- Recently, Ukrainian troops advanced west of the Kursk arc.
- Also, the Defense Forces advanced within the boundaries of Vovchansk and in the east of Toretsk.
- The Russian opposition publication Meduza, citing its own sources, reported on September 24 that the mobilization is a very sensitive topic among Kremlin officials.