“According to analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Ukrainian military was able to take advantage of the situation for an offensive in the Kursk region, despite the fact that Russia had known and was preparing for the operation of the Armed Forces for months.”, — write: www.pravda.com.ua
According to analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Ukrainian military was able to take advantage of the situation for an offensive in the Kursk region, despite the fact that Russia had known and was preparing for the operation of the Armed Forces for months.
Source: ISW
Details: According to reports, the Russian authorities knew about the threat of a future Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region for months, but did not take adequate measures to eliminate such a threat.
Citing Russian government and military documents seized by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, The Guardian reported on September 20 that Russian troops stationed in the Kursk region have repeatedly warned the Russian military command about the possibility of a Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region starting in late 2023.
The documents that the publication saw, but could not independently verify, indicate that the local military command repeatedly gave orders to conduct additional training for Russian servicemen serving in the Kursk region, to build additional fortifications, to prepare decoy trenches and military equipment as part of preparation for the upcoming Ukrainian operation.
One of the documents stated that as of June 2024, Russian military units stationed along the border were staffed at an average of only 60-70 percent of their projected final strength and were mostly staffed by poorly trained reservists.
Literally: “It appears that the Russian authorities have made no significant effort to increase the readiness of Russian military units serving in the border areas of the Kursk region or to build additional fortifications along the international border prior to the invasion, and the Russian authorities may have chosen to ignore these requests due to miscalculations regarding Ukraine’s ability to advance deep into Kursk Oblast”.
Details: The report indicates that these documents support ISW’s recent assessment that Ukrainian forces achieved operational surprise during the invasion of Kursk Oblast, despite Russian authorities reporting that an invasion was possible.
Literally: “While Russian forces were likely aware of various points along the border at which Ukraine could launch an offensive, Ukrainian forces were able to use uncertainty about their operational intentions and capabilities to ensure operational surprise.
According to reports, Ukrainian forces have also experimented with innovative methods combining ground operations and unmanned systems, which ISW will not cover in detail in order to maintain the operational security of Ukraine.”
“The Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region demonstrates that surprise is still possible even on a partially transparent battlefield, where the enemy can observe the concentration of forces, but cannot reliably recognize the operational intentions and capabilities of the enemy.”
ISW Key Findings for September 20:
- The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, during her visit to Kyiv on September 20, announced the creation of two new credit mechanisms for Ukraine in the amount of up to 45 billion and 35 billion euros, respectively.
- It is reported that the Russian authorities were aware of the threat of a future Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region in the months leading up to August 2024, but failed to take adequate measures to counter such a threat.
- This confirms ISW’s recent assessment that Ukrainian forces achieved operational surprise during the invasion of Kursk Oblast, despite the fact that Russian authorities were reportedly aware of the possibility of an invasion.
- Russian officials tried to use the meeting with the International Committee of the Red Cross to legitimize the Russian occupation of Ukraine and promote false narratives about alleged human rights violations in Ukraine.
- Russian troops advanced near Vovchansk, Kreminnaya, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk, and Ukrainian troops recently regained lost positions in Vovchansk and Siversk.
- Russian state media have increasingly highlighted the involvement of foreign nationals in Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, presumably to reassure domestic audiences that Russia continues to recruit sufficient troops and will not need to announce another wave of mobilization.