As Ukraine approaches the end of March, experts are warning of a potential fuel shortage due to reduced supplies from key providers. Notably, Polish company Orlen and Germany have announced cuts in their fuel deliveries, raising concerns about availability during the critical planting season.
Dmytro Lyoshkin, a fuel analyst and founder of Prime Group, stated in a recent interview that the expected decrease in fuel supply could lead to a slight deficit. He noted that the timing coincides with the onset of agricultural activities, which typically increase fuel demand.
Lyoshkin elaborated on the situation, indicating that the reductions from Orlen and Germany are set to take effect in March and April. He emphasized the urgency for traders to secure contracts, although he cautioned that the market remains unpredictable. “Some traders may hold back supplies to capitalize on higher prices,” he remarked, highlighting the potential for market manipulation.
The current fuel reserves in Ukraine are estimated to last approximately twenty days, though this varies by location. Lyoshkin pointed out that while some gas stations may have lower supplies, others might be holding fuel in smaller, less visible storage facilities. He explained, “This does not mean that all storage tanks are full. For instance, a delivery truck may arrive with more fuel than expected due to previous high demand for generators. Traders respond quickly to changes in demand, but the logistics can lag behind. Currently, the electricity situation has stabilized, leading to excess fuel that has been stored at various mini-depots, with hopes that they remain intact.”
Global Oil Prices and Domestic Implications
In parallel, global oil prices are experiencing sharp increases due to ongoing conflicts in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This surge in oil prices has translated to higher fuel costs at Ukrainian gas stations, where prices have risen to between 70 and 81 UAH per liter.
The Ukrainian government is actively seeking to stabilize the fuel market by increasing import volumes. Officials believe that enhancing supply could mitigate the impact of the anticipated shortages.
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Ukraine may face a fuel shortage as major suppliers reduce deliveries. This situation coincides with rising global oil prices and increased domestic fuel costs, prompting government efforts to stabilize the market.
Source: UNIAN