Fuel prices in Ukraine are expected to increase soon, driven by currency fluctuations and rising oil prices, rather than disruptions in supply from Slovakia and Hungary. This insight comes from fuel market expert Dmytro Lyoshkin, who shared his analysis on social media.
Lyoshkin noted that the ongoing situation regarding Iran could lead to a military operation, which is causing anxiety in the market. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global oil supply, sees about 20% of the world’s oil transported through it. Any blockade or significant restriction on tanker movement could push oil prices to as high as $100 per barrel, which would have a severe impact on fuel costs in Ukraine.
“It’s hard to imagine how this will affect fuel prices in Ukraine,” Lyoshkin remarked.
Currently, wholesale fuel prices have risen by one hryvnia, with expectations that retail prices will follow suit in the coming weeks. Lyoshkin indicated that this trend is likely to continue as the market adjusts.
“These changes will reach retail prices within two weeks. There is no sign of a reversal, so retail prices will closely follow the wholesale market,” he added.
Additional Context on Ukraine’s Fuel Market
On February 18, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced that Hungary has halted diesel exports to Ukraine until the latter resumes oil transportation through the Druzhba pipeline, which was damaged due to actions by Russia in January. Lyoshkin previously stated that the cessation of diesel supplies from Hungary and Slovakia would not significantly affect domestic price fluctuations, as these sources account for less than 10% of Ukraine’s total fuel imports.
He also predicted that gasoline and diesel prices at Ukrainian gas stations could rise by approximately one hryvnia once stable positive temperatures are established, provided global oil prices remain steady.
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Fuel prices in Ukraine are anticipated to rise due to currency and oil price fluctuations, with expert Dmytro Lyoshkin linking this to potential military actions regarding Iran. The ongoing situation could significantly impact the cost of fuel, particularly if tanker movements are restricted in the Strait of Hormuz.