A recent survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) reveals a decrease in Ukrainian public support for a referendum on a potential peace agreement. The polling, conducted from March 1 to 8, indicates that support has dropped from 55% in mid-January 2026 to 50%. Conversely, opposition to the initiative has risen from 32% to 40%.
Since January 2026, the KIIS has also explored public sentiment regarding the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donbas region in exchange for security guarantees from the United States and Europe. Among respondents who are amenable to troop withdrawal, 71% support the idea of a referendum, while 25% oppose it. In contrast, among those firmly against the proposal for Donbas, 39% still favor a referendum, while 48% oppose it, and 13% remain undecided.
In the backdrop of these shifting opinions, Ukraine, the United States, and Russia have engaged in multiple rounds of negotiations aimed at ending the conflict. The initial discussions took place on January 23-24 and February 4-5 in the United Arab Emirates, followed by a third round on February 17-18 in Switzerland. A subsequent meeting was scheduled for early March but was hindered by ongoing military actions in the Middle East.
While specific outcomes from these talks have not been disclosed, a significant development occurred during the February 5 meeting, where delegations reached an agreement on a prisoner exchange—the first in five months. In March, Ukraine successfully repatriated an additional 500 individuals from Russian captivity.
Amid these negotiations, the potential for a referendum regarding a peace agreement, which may involve territorial compromises, remains a topic of discussion within Ukraine.
A survey indicates a decline in Ukrainian support for a referendum on a peace agreement, with rising opposition. Negotiations continue among Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia amidst discussions of troop withdrawal and potential territorial compromises.