Despite ongoing correspondence between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and leaders of the European Council and European Commission, as well as a European Union mission currently in Ukraine to assess the damaged Druzhba pipeline, hopes for a breakthrough regarding the €90 billion loan blocked by Hungary appear dim.
Several senior EU diplomats have indicated that the issues surrounding the loan and the 20th sanctions package remain unresolved. Discussions about the Druzhba pipeline are likely to take place at the upcoming European Council meeting, but these discussions are framed strictly within the context of energy security and do not pertain to financial support. One diplomat commented, “The link that Prime Minister Orbán is making between the loan and Prime Minister Fico’s stance on the sanctions package is unacceptable. I cannot predict Hungary’s or Slovakia’s positions tomorrow, but my expectations for open discussions are relatively low, despite the efforts of Presidents Costa and von der Leyen.”
The diplomat further noted that the exchange of letters and the EU’s fact-finding mission regarding the pipeline damage represent only initial steps. “Currently, there are no signals from Orbán indicating that Hungary is willing to change its stance. If the situation remains unchanged, leaders will likely send him very strong signals, reminding him that he agreed to this decision in December but later reneged. However, I cannot foresee how this situation will evolve,” the source stated.
Another diplomat remarked that the EU is not developing a contingency plan in case Orbán remains unyielding in his veto. “There is only one plan, which is for Hungary to agree to the €90 billion. There is no temporary solution for a Plan B. We all know that Ukraine can hold out for a few weeks to stay afloat. So we have a bit of time, but not much,” he added.
On March 18, EU experts are scheduled to inspect the section of the Druzhba pipeline damaged by Russian shelling in Ukraine. A small delegation of European engineers is already in Kyiv, with logistics managed by the EU representation in Ukraine.
An EU official stated that the experts aim to assess the damage to the Druzhba pipeline “as soon as possible,” as EU leaders will convene on March 19 to discuss unblocking the €90 billion loan for Ukraine. He also noted that representatives from Slovakia and Hungary would not participate in the site visit.
On March 17, Zelensky confirmed in a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa that Ukraine had agreed to the European bloc’s proposal for financial and technical assistance in repairing the Druzhba pipeline.
On March 18, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Georgiy Tikhiy emphasized that access to strategic sites is managed by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). “I would like to remind you that access to or from strategic sites during martial law is a matter for the SBU,” he stated.
In late January, a Russian attack in Brody, Lviv region, damaged critical infrastructure linked to the Druzhba pipeline, which is used for transporting Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia. Following the attack, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reported that oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline had been halted.
Hungary and Slovakia have announced a suspension of diesel exports to Ukraine until Russian oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline are restored. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has informed Budapest about the damage caused by the Russian attack on the Druzhba pipeline and rejected accusations of delays in supply as illogical.
The European Commission has expressed a desire for Ukraine to restore operations on the Druzhba pipeline, but has acknowledged that the decision rests with Ukraine due to the risk of further Russian attacks.
On February 21, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico stated that Slovakia would halt electricity supplies to Ukraine if oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline was not restored. A similar statement was issued by the Hungarian government.
Ukraine has proposed that the EU utilize the Odessa-Brody pipeline as an alternative for oil supplies to the EU, given the damage to the Druzhba pipeline. On February 27, Orbán announced that Hungary and Slovakia would establish a joint investigative commission to assess the condition of the Druzhba pipeline.
On March 11, it was reported that a delegation from Hungary, led by State Secretary Gábor Csepe, had arrived in Ukraine to evaluate the state of the Druzhba pipeline and discuss the restoration of oil transit to Hungary. However, Zelensky later stated that he was unaware of any Hungarian delegation’s arrival, as no arrangements had been made with the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry.
Diplomatic efforts to secure a €90 billion loan for Ukraine face significant hurdles, particularly due to Hungary's ongoing veto. EU diplomats express skepticism about reaching a resolution, as discussions regarding the Druzhba pipeline are framed separately from financial aid considerations.