The political landscape in Hungary is shifting as the ruling party led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faces significant challenges in the lead-up to the upcoming elections. Recent polling indicates a 20-point deficit for Orbán’s Fidesz party against the opposition party Tisza, led by Péter Madár.
This polling outcome could potentially grant the Tisza party a constitutional majority in parliament, enabling it to reverse Hungary’s current trajectory towards authoritarianism after 16 years under Orbán’s governance.
The implications of the election extend beyond Hungary’s borders. Orbán has been a staunch ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump and has positioned himself as a vocal supporter of the Kremlin, particularly in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Bloomberg has reported on Trump’s endorsement of Orbán ahead of the elections scheduled for April 12. Additionally, Hungary and Slovakia have temporarily blocked the European Union’s 20th sanctions package against Russia, which includes a €90 billion loan for Ukraine.
Orbán’s administration has cited disruptions in the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine as a justification for its actions, following damage to the Druzhba pipeline caused by Russian strikes. The Hungarian Prime Minister has accused Kyiv of intentionally delaying repairs for political reasons.
In Brussels, officials are closely monitoring the Hungarian elections, especially as the EU has frozen over $20 billion in funding to Budapest due to concerns over rule of law and corruption. Tensions between the EU and Orbán have escalated, with the Prime Minister labeling Ukraine as a ‘foe’ and making the war-torn nation a focal point of his electoral campaign.
Relations between Hungary and Ukraine have deteriorated further, particularly regarding the Druzhba pipeline incident, which has hindered energy supplies to both Hungary and Slovakia. Orbán’s government has blamed Kyiv for not restoring the pipeline’s operations, attributing this to political motivations.
In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has suggested that Orbán pursue an energy truce with Moscow if he has grievances about the current situation. Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine will not risk the lives of its specialists, who have faced attacks from Russia while attempting repairs.
Despite ongoing disputes, Ukraine has offered Hungary a compromise to resolve the issues surrounding the Druzhba pipeline.
As Hungary approaches its elections, the ruling Fidesz party faces a substantial deficit against the opposition Tisza party. The political dynamics are further complicated by strained relations with Ukraine and the implications of EU sanctions.