As prediction markets gain traction, industry leaders are framing them increasingly as platforms for monetizing information rather than mere gambling venues. This shift was highlighted during discussions at Consensus Hong Kong 2026, where founders acknowledged the nuanced distinction between speculation and informed trading.
Ding X, the founder of Predict.fun, emphasized that prediction markets should be likened more to insurance underwriting or poker than to traditional gambling games like roulette. He stated, “It’s more information trading and trying to hedge risk, rather than gambling,” thereby positioning skill-based forecasting as a legitimate financial activity distinct from games of chance.
Farokh Sarmad, co-founder of DASTAN, echoed this sentiment, asserting that while speculation is inherent, the sector is on the verge of becoming a significant financial asset class. He described prediction markets as a means of “financializing information,” enabling participants to derive economic value from insights that have traditionally benefited media outlets and bookmakers.
Jared Dillinger, CEO of New Prontera Group and a former professional athlete, pointed out that the classification of these markets largely depends on user intent and the structural design of the platforms. He remarked, “It just depends on the eyes of the beholder,” suggesting that while some may view prediction markets as an information asset class, others may approach them with a gambling mindset.
However, the sector faces critical challenges, particularly concerning insider trading. Instances of leaked information, ranging from entertainment setlists to geopolitical events, have highlighted the risks associated with information asymmetry in prediction markets. Sarmad acknowledged this issue, stating, “Insider information is not okay,” while noting that the transparency offered by blockchain technology could help identify suspicious trading activities.
Despite these technological safeguards, Dillinger cautioned that enforcement remains a significant hurdle, admitting, “There’s always going to be some loopholes that people will find.” As trading volumes increase and regulatory bodies begin to scrutinize these markets more closely, founders concur that the future of prediction markets will hinge on the implementation of robust surveillance mechanisms, clearer disclosure standards, and stronger governance practices.
The outcome of these developments will determine whether prediction markets evolve into a recognized financial category or continue to be perceived as speculative betting platforms.
Prediction markets are increasingly viewed as platforms for monetizing information rather than gambling, although challenges like insider trading persist. Industry leaders emphasize the need for better governance and transparency as the sector matures.