As the conflict continues to unfold, the bitcoin market has become increasingly divided, with institutional buyers demonstrating resilience while discretionary sellers retreat. Over the past six weeks, bitcoin has maintained a price range between $65,000 and $73,000, despite significant market volatility and negative sentiment.
The Institutional Buyers
Three primary entities are currently driving the demand for bitcoin. These institutional buyers are not motivated by market speculation but are compelled to purchase due to their business models. One notable player, Strategy, recently announced the acquisition of 4,871 BTC for approximately $329.9 million, bringing its total holdings to 766,970 BTC, valued at $58.02 billion. Although this position is currently underwater by about 8%, Strategy continues to buy below its average cost, effectively lowering its breakeven point.
In March, U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) absorbed around 50,000 BTC, marking the highest monthly intake since October 2025. However, broader ETF inflows have shown signs of slowing, with only $22 million reported last week out of a total of $107 million in global bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) flows. The majority of these inflows came from Swiss-listed products, which accounted for 70% of the total.
Another institutional player, Bitmine Immersion Technologies, primarily focused on ether, has also exhibited similar buying behavior. The company made its largest single-week purchase of 71,252 ETH last week, totaling approximately $10 billion.
The Discretionary Sellers
In stark contrast, many market participants with the option to sell are doing so. Whales, defined as holders of 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, have shifted from being net buyers to net sellers. Over the past year, their holdings have decreased by approximately 188,000 BTC, marking one of the most significant distribution cycles recorded. Mid-tier holders, who possess between 100 and 1,000 BTC, are still accumulating but at a much slower pace, with additions dropping over 60% since October 2025.
Bitcoin miners are also liquidating their treasury holdings. Companies such as Riot Platforms and MARA Holdings have sold more than 19,000 BTC recently, driven by operational challenges amid rising energy costs and market volatility. Bhutan, the only sovereign nation that previously built a bitcoin position through hydropower mining, has sold approximately 70% of its holdings since October 2024, reducing its stash from 13,000 BTC to 3,954 BTC.
The Sentiment Gap
The disparity between the actions of institutional buyers and the sentiment among other market participants is notable. The Fear and Greed Index has remained in extreme fear territory for over a month, only recently climbing out of single digits following the announcement of a ceasefire. Social media sentiment has also reflected this negativity, with bearish posts outnumbering bullish ones.
Despite this, institutional buying has continued, with both ETFs and Strategy maintaining their purchasing patterns. This has contributed to bitcoin’s price stability, preventing it from dropping below $65,000.
Ceasefire Effects
The recent ceasefire announcement led to a significant price rally, with bitcoin surpassing $72,000 and resulting in $427 million in short liquidations. The Coinbase Premium turned positive for both bitcoin and ether, indicating renewed interest from U.S. buyers for the first time since the conflict began. However, the underlying market dynamics remain unchanged, and the sustainability of this uptick will depend on whether the ceasefire becomes permanent and if institutional flows can breach the $73,000 resistance level.
In summary, the bitcoin market is currently characterized by a narrowing buyer base. Institutional players continue to exert buying pressure, while most other participants are either selling or reducing their activity. The future trajectory of bitcoin will depend on the interplay between these two groups and broader market conditions.
The bitcoin market is currently divided between institutional buyers, who continue to accumulate despite adverse conditions, and discretionary sellers, who are exiting the market. This dynamic has led to a price range stability, although sentiment remains low among most participants.