Bitcoin is currently experiencing a significant downturn, with projections suggesting a further decline of up to 30% by 2026, according to CK Zheng, founder of ZX Squared Capital, a cryptocurrency investment firm.
As of now, Bitcoin’s price stands at approximately $68,000, having nearly halved from its peak of over $126,000 in October 2025. Zheng attributes the anticipated decline to the established “four-year cycle” in cryptocurrency markets, which is influenced by the periodic halving of mining rewards.
The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, reducing the reward for mining a block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, Bitcoin prices have tended to peak around 16 to 18 months following such halving events, often leading to subsequent bear markets lasting about a year.
Given that Bitcoin reached its recent high roughly 18 months after the last halving, Zheng indicates that the current bear market aligns with historical patterns. He noted, “The four-year crypto cycle momentum is gaining strength and is extremely difficult to break due to individual investors’ psychological behaviors,” suggesting that investor sentiment plays a crucial role in market movements.
Zheng also highlighted the slow pace of institutional adoption of Bitcoin, which he believes remains limited. He cautioned that some companies holding Bitcoin as a treasury asset may be compelled to sell during this downturn, potentially exacerbating price declines. “The total size of crypto ETFs and Digital Asset Treasury companies is only around 10% of the whole crypto market,” he stated. “Some firms may be forced to sell cryptos to meet certain debt servicing requirements during this bear market, which may create a vicious cycle.”
In summary, Zheng’s outlook suggests that the current bear market for Bitcoin may persist before the onset of the next market cycle, reflecting broader trends in investor behavior and market dynamics.
Bitcoin is projected to decline further by 30% amid a bear market, driven by historical cycles and investor behavior, according to ZX Squared Capital. Institutional adoption remains limited, raising concerns about potential sell-offs.