Recent increases in fuel prices in Ukraine have brought them close to those in Poland, with current rates around 73 UAH per liter. This surge is attributed to several objective factors, although significant further increases are not anticipated.
According to energy expert Yuriy Gerus, one of the primary drivers behind the rising costs is the logistics of fuel supply. Currently, Ukraine relies heavily on imports from Europe, which involves transportation through multiple countries or via European ports before reaching Ukrainian markets.
Gerus noted that there is no supply coming from the east, with all fuel entering the country from the west. He explained, “When looking at Europe from west to east, we find ourselves at the end of this logistics chain. Therefore, the resource itself is generally not cheaper than in Europe, and is often slightly more expensive.”
Additionally, a significant portion of fuel prices is composed of crude oil costs, excise taxes, and value-added tax (VAT). Since January 1, excise taxes have been increased, further contributing to the price rise. The fluctuating exchange rates of the dollar and euro also play a critical role, as most fuel resources are imported in foreign currency.
Gerus pointed out that the dollar has significantly appreciated against the hryvnia, while excise taxes are linked to the euro, which has also risen by two hryvnias over the past three months. “This creates an objective problem,” he stated.
The absence of strategic reserves of petroleum products due to attacks on oil depots has compounded these issues. Gerus remarked, “Everything operates on a just-in-time basis, and there are no remaining cheaper resources. Therefore, any price change in Europe quickly translates to a price change in Ukraine.”
Despite these challenges, state-owned company Ukrnafta has been partially mitigating price increases, offering diesel and gasoline at slightly lower rates. Gerus emphasized that developing strategic reserves would help the country better withstand price shocks and stabilize the market in the future.
According to local media, fuel prices in Poland are also expected to rise during the period from March 9 to 15:
- Pb98: 6.96 – 7.10 PLN per liter, equivalent to 82.41 – 84.06 UAH/l.
- Pb95: 6.15 – 6.30 PLN per liter, equivalent to 72.82 – 74.59 UAH/l.
- ON (Diesel): 7.12 – 7.29 PLN per liter, equivalent to 84.30 – 86.31 UAH/l.
- LPG (Gas): 2.97 – 3.10 PLN per liter, equivalent to 35.16 – 36.70 UAH/l.
Fuel prices in Ukraine have risen to levels comparable to those in Poland, driven by logistical challenges and increased taxes. The reliance on imports and fluctuating currency rates further complicate the situation.