The Estonian Naval Command has articulated its concerns regarding an increased risk of direct military confrontation with Russia, particularly following Moscow’s recent deployment of warships to escort oil tankers.
This cautious stance is rooted in an incident from May 2025, when Estonian forces attempted to halt a flagless tanker violating sanctions. In response, Russia deployed a fighter jet that entered NATO airspace, escorting the vessel back to Russian territorial waters.
According to Commander Ivo Vark of the Estonian Navy, “Since then, Moscow has initiated regular patrols with two or three armed military vessels in the Gulf of Finland and has increased its naval presence in other parts of the Baltic Sea along the routes used by tankers transporting Russian oil.”
Additionally, the situation has been exacerbated by successful Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian ports, leading to significant disruptions in loading schedules. The number of tankers waiting in Estonia’s exclusive economic zone has surged threefold, now totaling between 30 and 40 vessels.
Vark emphasized the heightened risk of military escalation, stating, “The Russian presence in the Gulf of Finland has become much more pronounced.”
In contrast, the United Kingdom, France, and Belgium have been actively detaining older Russian tankers in the Atlantic and North Sea, where the presence of the Russian Navy is minimal. Estonia, however, remains under the watchful eye of Russian coastal forces.
Estonia's Naval Command has raised alarms over the risks of military escalation with Russia, citing increased naval patrols and disruptions in oil tanker operations. The situation reflects broader geopolitical tensions in the Baltic region amid ongoing conflicts involving Ukraine.