Recent statements by Russian General Valery Gerasimov regarding military gains in Ukraine have been met with skepticism from analysts, particularly from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Gerasimov asserted that Russian forces captured 12 settlements in Ukraine during the first two weeks of March 2026, a claim that ISW contests, citing evidence of only two settlements being taken during that period.
According to ISW, Gerasimov’s reports appear to exaggerate the progress of Russian troops, especially in small villages along the front lines. Analysts suggest that these claims are part of a broader strategy aimed at convincing both Western nations and Ukraine to concede to Russian territorial demands. This pattern of overstating military achievements has been observed in previous months, with similar declarations made by Gerasimov in January and February 2026.
On March 16, Gerasimov highlighted supposed successes in the Kostyantynivka and Lyman directions, claiming that Russian forces control significant portions of these areas. However, ISW noted a lack of evidence supporting active Russian military operations in Lyman since February 23, 2026. In relation to Kostyantynivka, analysts reported that Russian troops were active in only about 7.85% of the city.
ISW concluded that the front lines in Ukraine remain operationally stable, with Ukrainian forces having reclaimed more territory than what Russian troops managed to capture in February 2026. Following Gerasimov’s statements, Rostyslav Yashchishyn, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s 63rd Separate Mechanized Brigade, stated on Radio Free Europe that there are no Russian troops present in Lyman, Donetsk Oblast.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War challenge Russian military claims of territorial gains in Ukraine, asserting that reports from General Gerasimov are exaggerated. Evidence suggests that Ukrainian forces have regained more territory than has been lost, indicating stability along the front lines.