Russian military units have reportedly initiated a spring-summer offensive targeting Ukraine’s defensive positions in the Donetsk region, specifically focusing on the Lyman area. This strategic move aims to pave the way for advancing towards the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Analysts indicate that there has been a significant uptick in offensive operations by Russian troops in eastern Ukraine, suggesting the commencement of a large-scale campaign against Ukraine’s primary defensive line, known as the “fortress belt.” The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that the main combat activities are currently concentrated around Lyman, where Russian forces are attempting to create conditions favorable for further advances.
On March 19, Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian units conducted a battalion assault involving over 500 soldiers, numerous armored vehicles, and a variety of light equipment, including motorcycles and buggies. This attack was executed from multiple directions, indicating a tactical shift from column movements to dispersed strikes aimed at complicating the operations of Ukrainian drones.
Lyman serves as a crucial stronghold on the route to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The intensified pressure in this area is expected to set the stage for subsequent assaults from various flanks, including the east and southeast.
Simultaneously, Russian forces are preparing to escalate combat operations further south, targeting the Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka directions. Observations indicate a redeployment of military equipment, an increase in artillery strikes, and the use of drones, including first-person view (FPV) and strike drones.
In addition to ground assaults, Russia is ramping up its aerial and drone attacks, employing guided bombs and loitering munitions. These actions aim to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and weaken defensive capabilities ahead of further offensives.
Despite these intensified efforts, Ukrainian forces have inflicted significant casualties on Russian troops. Estimates suggest that during a recent assault, Russian forces suffered heavy losses, raising questions about their ability to sustain such high-intensity operations over time.
Analysts believe that while the Russian offensive has intensified, it is unlikely that Russian forces will capture the entire “fortress belt” by 2026. However, fighting in Donetsk is expected to remain fierce, with enemy advances likely accompanied by substantial losses.
In recent weeks, reports have indicated an increase in Russian offensive actions across various segments of the front. Notably, there has been a marked rise in attacks in the Zaporizhzhia direction, where the intensity of assaults has occasionally surpassed that of other high-pressure areas, such as the Pokrovsk region.
According to DeepState, Russian command is also regrouping forces and replenishing reserves. Analysts suggest that these maneuvers may be linked to changing weather conditions and the emergence of dense vegetation, which could influence combat tactics on the front lines.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has asserted that the Russian spring offensive has already failed. He stated that Russian forces are currently unable to advance using heavy equipment and are resorting to attempts at infiltration with small groups. He emphasized that there is no intention in Russia to conclude the war.
Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi noted that the highest intensity of Russian offensive actions is being observed in the Zaporizhzhia direction, particularly around Huliaipole. However, Russian units have recently increased their mechanized attacks along the front as part of their enhanced preparations for the spring-summer offensive.
On March 21, Commander of the Third Army Corps Andriy Biletsky reported that occupying forces launched simultaneous attacks across seven directions in the Lyman area.
Russian forces have initiated a spring-summer offensive in eastern Ukraine, focusing on the Lyman area to advance towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Despite increased attacks and tactical shifts, analysts suggest that sustaining such operations may prove challenging for Russia amidst significant Ukrainian resistance.