The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported that recent media claims suggesting that some of Ukraine’s partners would only send peacekeeping troops with Russian approval indicate a successful Kremlin campaign.
According to the ISW, the Kremlin appears to have effectively executed a reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing the decision-making processes of the ‘Coalition of the Willing,’ led by the UK and France.
On February 24, The Telegraph cited diplomatic and defense sources stating that certain members of the coalition privately indicated that their contributions to post-war security forces in Ukraine would depend on President Vladimir Putin’s consent for deployment. A senior diplomatic source mentioned that Kremlin statements asserting that Russian forces would consider foreign troops in Ukraine as legitimate targets imply that the coalition may need to send different types of forces. Another source noted that European nations have essentially granted Putin a veto over coalition plans, although this has not been officially confirmed.
The ISW report suggests that divisions within the coalition likely stem from a coordinated Kremlin campaign designed to compel opponents to reach predetermined decisions. This strategy aims to prevent the West from agreeing to security guarantees for Ukraine.
Analysts have pointed out that the Kremlin has consistently rejected Western security assurances for Ukraine, claiming that foreign troops would be considered legitimate targets. Furthermore, the ISW highlights that the Kremlin is leveraging unfounded assertions from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service regarding the UK and France’s alleged willingness to provide Ukraine with a ‘dirty bomb’ or nuclear weapons to derail ongoing discussions about security guarantees.
On February 25, Kremlin officials reiterated accusations from the intelligence service, claiming that a transfer of nuclear weapons to Ukraine would threaten Russia’s security and calling for counteractions to instill fear in the UK and France. Significant security guarantees, including European deterrent forces, are deemed essential for any future agreement ensuring lasting peace in Ukraine. Without substantial deterrence measures, these guarantees would fail to prevent Russia from resuming aggression at its discretion, especially important for justifying any territorial concessions Ukraine may be forced to accept.
The ISW asserts that Russia outright rejects any meaningful security guarantees, as they hinder the Kremlin’s long-standing strategic objective of gaining control over all of Ukraine.
Analysts emphasize that any Russian veto would undermine the foundations of current US-led negotiations aimed at establishing lasting peace.
Additionally, the ISW notes that insider reports continue to indicate that Russia is not genuinely interested in substantive peace talks and is preparing for a protracted conflict. A source close to the Russian Foreign Ministry informed the opposition outlet ‘Verstka’ on February 25 that Russia’s negotiating position has not changed and that it ‘must achieve’ its military objectives.
A source within the Kremlin’s domestic political bloc told ‘Verstka’ that the Kremlin is simulating active negotiations while actually trying to prolong the process. These sources also indicated that the Kremlin views the negotiation process as a tool to prevent escalation in directions unfavorable to Moscow. As an example of this delaying tactic’s success, they noted that Ukraine would not receive Tomahawk missiles from the United States while Russia remains at the negotiating table.
In January and February, several trilateral meetings involving Ukraine, the US, and Russia took place to discuss ending the war, though no specific outcomes were reported. However, a meeting on February 5 resulted in an agreement for a prisoner exchange, the first in five months.
Recently, US Special Envoy Stephen Witkoff stated in an interview with Fox News that he expects ‘good news’ in the coming weeks and suggested a potential meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
Prior to negotiations in Geneva on February 17-18, the US President indicated that Ukraine should ‘quickly come to the negotiating table.’ He previously expressed his belief that Russia is interested in reaching an agreement amid the ongoing conflict.
Despite US mediation efforts to halt the war, Russia has shown no willingness to back down from its stringent demands, which include Ukraine’s renunciation of territories in Donbas. The Kremlin continues to dismiss Western security guarantees for Ukraine and signals its commitment to its maximalist objectives in the war, as noted by ISW analysts.
Meanwhile, Ukraine insists on strong security guarantees from the US and European allies to protect itself from future Russian aggression.
The ISW highlights the Kremlin's successful influence over Ukraine's security discussions, revealing divisions within the Coalition of the Willing. Despite ongoing negotiations, Russia remains firm in its demands, complicating efforts for a peaceful resolution.