Recent polling indicates a growing sentiment among Ukrainians against the withdrawal of military forces from Donetsk in exchange for security guarantees from the United States and European nations. A survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) from March 1 to 8, 2026, reveals that 62% of respondents oppose such a condition, up from 57% in February.
The survey also highlights a persistent skepticism regarding the effectiveness of ongoing tripartite negotiations involving Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia. A significant majority, 71%, do not believe these discussions will lead to lasting peace, while only 25% express confidence in their potential success.
Public Sentiment on Military Presence
When asked about the possibility of ceding control of the entire Donetsk region to Russia for security assurances, 62% of participants deemed this unacceptable. Conversely, 33% indicated a willingness to consider such an option, although most acknowledged the complexity of this decision. The percentage of those opposed to the withdrawal has increased, while those in favor has decreased from 36% to 33% since February.
Researchers note that public opinion on this issue has remained relatively stable over recent months, with a clear majority expressing critical views towards the proposal. Notably, when specific security guarantees were outlined, such as the absence of U.S. troop deployments in Ukraine, support for the proposal diminished significantly.
Endurance of the Ukrainian Public
The survey also explored how long Ukrainians are willing to endure the ongoing conflict. There has been a notable decline in the proportion of individuals willing to tolerate the war indefinitely, dropping from 65% in late January to 52% in mid-February. The latest findings show that 54% are still prepared to endure the conflict for as long as necessary, while 28% prefer a shorter timeframe of several months to half a year.
Conclusions from the Survey
According to Anton Grushetsky, executive director of KIIS, the public’s outlook on the prospects for peace negotiations remains pessimistic. He attributes this sentiment to a lack of trust in Russia, which is perceived as intent on Ukraine’s destruction, as well as a growing skepticism towards Western partners, particularly the U.S. Grushetsky emphasized that for many Ukrainians, security guarantees are essential, and any peace achieved under unfavorable conditions would be deemed meaningless.
Methodology of the Survey
The KIIS survey utilized telephone interviews based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers across all regions of Ukraine under government control. A total of 1,003 respondents aged 18 and older participated, excluding residents from areas not controlled by the Ukrainian government, although some respondents were internally displaced persons from occupied territories. The margin of error for the sample was calculated at 4.1% for metrics close to 50% and lower for other percentages.
Trust in Leadership
In related findings, the KIIS survey indicates a slight increase in trust towards President Volodymyr Zelensky, with 62% of respondents expressing confidence in his leadership as of early March, compared to 32% who do not.
Recent polling shows a significant increase in opposition among Ukrainians to the withdrawal of military forces from Donetsk, reflecting a broader skepticism towards ongoing peace negotiations. The survey indicates a stable yet critical public sentiment regarding security guarantees and the endurance of the conflict.