In a significant escalation of hostilities, Russian forces launched a combined assault on Ukraine during the night of February 21-22, 2023, shifting their primary targets from energy infrastructure to logistics and transportation systems.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the attack involved the firing of 347 missiles and drones. This included:
- 297 strike drones of various types, with approximately 200 classified as “Shahed” drones;
- 50 missiles, which encompassed hypersonic “Zircons,” ballistic “Iskander-M/S-400,” and cruise missiles such as “X-101,” “Iskander-K,” and “X-59/69.”
Ukrainian air defense systems successfully intercepted 274 drones and 33 missiles, managing to destroy nearly all of the “X-101” missiles, as well as all “Iskander-K” and “X-59/69” projectiles.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) observed that this recent attack likely indicates a strategic pivot by Russia, focusing on logistical targets, particularly railways and water supply systems, rather than solely on the destruction of Ukraine’s energy grid. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky corroborated this assessment, noting that the main objectives of the strikes were indeed logistics-related.
Experts caution that Russia may continue to employ a mixed strategy, combining attacks on logistics with ongoing efforts to deplete Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The ISW suggests that this shift in target focus may reflect an adaptation in Russian military strategy following previous unsuccessful attempts to cripple Ukraine’s energy capabilities during the winter months.
Despite this change, analysts emphasize that Russia is likely to persist in its campaign against Ukraine’s energy systems, integrating these efforts with strikes on critical logistical and infrastructure sites.
Recent Russian missile strikes on Ukraine have shifted focus from energy infrastructure to logistics, indicating a potential adaptation in military strategy. Analysts suggest that while logistics are now primary targets, attacks on energy systems are expected to continue.