A group of European countries is reportedly discussing the potential for independent nuclear deterrence, reflecting waning confidence in the United States as a reliable ally. This marks a significant shift in dialogue reminiscent of the Cold War era, particularly in light of Russia’s extensive nuclear arsenal.
Currently, only France and the United Kingdom possess nuclear weapons among European nations. While European countries have the scientific and economic capabilities to develop their own nuclear arsenals, doing so would violate existing international treaties and incur substantial costs, which may be unmanageable for many nations.
The combined annual expenditure for maintaining their nuclear capabilities is approximately $12 billion for the UK and France, a figure that represents over half of Sweden’s substantial defense budget.
For France and the UK, extending their nuclear umbrella to other European allies poses risks, including the potential for these allies to become targets in the event of a conflict. Additionally, there are concerns regarding public sentiment, as taxpayers in these countries would bear the financial burden of maintaining such arsenals.
French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to propose the concept of a French nuclear umbrella to other European nations in February, a topic he previously broached in 2025. However, this announcement is anticipated to occur outside the Munich Security Conference, at a later date in France.
Officials involved in these discussions are reportedly exercising caution in considering how their actions may be perceived by Russia. The talks are taking place in bilateral or trilateral formats among nations with established trust and at a deep military level. These discussions primarily involve countries hosting American forces that are geographically close to Russia and perceive a direct threat.
Public opinion surveys indicate a lack of consensus among residents of several European countries regarding the establishment of an independent nuclear deterrent to reduce reliance on the United States. In the spring of 2025, then-President of Poland Andrzej Duda advocated for Poland’s access to France’s nuclear umbrella.
European nations are cautiously exploring independent nuclear deterrence options, driven by concerns over U.S. reliability and the threat posed by Russia. Discussions are ongoing, but public opinion remains divided on the issue.